Marcus Solarz Hendriks

Marcus Solarz Hendriks is lead analyst for the MENA region at Greenmantle and Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Statecraft and National Security.

Monday

Marcus Solarz Hendriks

The three options facing Trump in Iran

As Trump contemplates a ground operation in Iran, he will be reckoning with the ghosts of previous western "excursions" in the region, as he recently labeled this war. History suggests three endgames for his intervention in Iran are plausible. First, a hasty deal on terms that aggrandize and empower Iran, creating an American equivalent to Britain’s Suez Crisis. Second, a protracted struggle which becomes structurally reminiscent of the Iraq War. Third, a dramatic escalation which achieves Iranian surrender quickly and cleanly. The bad news for Trump is that the outcome he seeks, number three, is the one without real precedent. In the first scenario, Trump makes a deal on terms that flatter Iran.

Wednesday

Marcus Solarz Hendriks

Prepare for ‘unpeace’ in the Middle East

From our UK edition

On several occasions this year, US President Donald Trump has suggested that, thanks to his dealmaking prowess, long-coveted ‘peace in the Middle East’ may well be nigh. Yet 2026 is more likely to witness ‘unpeace’ in the region, as the long tail of the Iran-Israel conflict creates further instability and impedes the construction of a more stable order. ‘Unpeace’ is an Anglo-Saxon concept which describes the liminal point between open conflict and stability. The perennial cycle of war and peace that characterised the Early Medieval period would certainly be familiar to those living in the Middle East today.

Thursday

Marcus Solarz Hendriks

The questions that need answering on the Chagos Islands deal

From our UK edition

The art of policymaking is to chart a course through evolving circumstances. In the face of resistance, there are three options: resist and persevere in kind, adjust, or fold and abandon ship. The best policymakers make the correct decision at the right time. The British government is in such a moment with its attempt to cede the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. For months, it has elected the first option – even as the new Mauritian government rejected the terms of the original deal, and Donald Trump’s election victory promises to usher in an administration with dim views of the agreement. As the Chagossians condemned their exclusion from the negotiations, and Maldivian opposition exposed broad regional unease, one by one the arguments in favour collapsed.