Luke Tryl

The by-election in Makerfield is shaping up to be one of the most consequential contests in recent political history. On paper, the seat should be fertile ground for Reform: heavily Leave-voting, older than average and exactly the sort of ‘left behind’ constituency Nigel Farage hopes to win. But there is one complicating factor: Andy Burnham. The Mayor of Greater Manchester is hoping that his personal popularity can defy the political gravity of the seat and carry him back to Westminster – where, if he wins, Labour MPs may well carry him straight towards No. 10. But can Burnham survive Reform’s attacks on immigration, Brexit and his record? And could Wes Streeting’s intervention on rejoining the EU prove fatal in a seat like Makerfield?

With one month to go until the local and regional elections, Megan McElroy and James Heale have hit the road with Luke Tryl and Louis O'Geran of More in Common. They report back from the focus groups they've been running in Wales, where voters view Labour through the prism of a double incumbency, as they hold both the Senedd and Westminster. Starmer faces an uphill battle to avoid an historic loss – so is he about to lose Wales? Produced by Megan McElroy and Patrick Gibbons.

In the end, it was not even that close. The Green party has stormed to victory in Gorton and Denton, winning their first ever parliamentary by-election by more than 4,000 votes. The result changes everything: the Lib Dems are no longer the party of the protest vote; Reform's tanks are parked on Labour's lawn; the left has split; and the Tories are nowhere to be seen. The era of two-party politics is well and truly over, and this morning's result could well be remembered as the moment when that became glaringly apparent. Where do we go from here? James Heale and Tim Shipman discuss with pollster Luke Tryl. Produced by Megan McElroy and Oscar Edmondson.

After a dramatic day in Westminster, the threat to Starmer appears to have receded – at least in the short term. But with the Gorton and Denton by-election less than three weeks away, (more) trouble could be on the horizon. Luke Tryl – from pollsters More in Common – and James Heale join Patrick Gibbons to discuss. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Labour conference kicks off this weekend in Liverpool – but the mood going in is far from triumphant. On today's Coffee House Shots, Lucy Dunn is joined by Tim Shipman and More in Common’s Luke Tryl to take the temperature ahead of Labour’s big set-piece. They discuss why some voters already see Starmer as ‘just as bad as the lot that came before’, and whether Labour can turn things around with new policies aimed at revitalising local communities – from saving libraries and pubs to giving residents more power over development. There is also a fascinating hypothetical poll in which an Andy Burnham-led Labour party outpaces Reform UK, turning a deficit into a narrow lead.

The Green Party leadership election is underway, pitting new MPs Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns against London Assembly Member Zack Polanski. The Greens achieved their best ever result at the 2024 general election, but they’ve remained static in opinion polls ever since. Lucy Dunn and Luke Tryl of More in Common join Patrick Gibbons to try to make sense of this. As Luke says, the dynamics within the leadership election are symptomatic of a wider divide over party strategy – two of the seats they won last year come from more liberal, traditionally left-wing seats, while two others come from traditionally conservative-leaning, rural shires. Plus, does Corbyn’s new party complicate any attempt to make them the anti-system party of the left?

Lots to discuss today, between Diane Abbott being suspended (again) and Labour handing the vote to 16-year-olds just before we head into recess. Abbott’s suspension comes after she was accused of ‘doubling down’ on previous claims that Jewish people experience racism differently from black people. She is the latest Labour troublemaker to be left out in the cold, with seven MPs punished this week for voting against the government – four of them suspended from the party. Is Starmer confusing toughness with strength? And will Abbott’s suspension stick this time? Elsewhere, 16-year-olds have been given the vote.

Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised ‘massive concessions’ over concerns about disability benefits. These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030.

As the parties regroup following the local elections, both Labour and the Conservatives have to face a miserable result. Lucy Dunn speaks to Isabel Hardman and pollster Luke Tryl about the anger and disillusionment amongst the electorate, and why Keir Starmer message 'we need to go further and faster' can't cut through.

With just over two weeks to go until the May elections, the latest national polling suggests an almost three-way split between Reform, Labour and the Conservatives. But will this translate to the locals? And, given these particular seats were last contested in 2021 amidst the 'Boris wave', how will the parties judge success?  The Spectator's deputy political editor James Heale and More in Common's Luke Tryl join Lucy Dunn to discuss. Will the story of the night be Tory losses and Reform  gains? Or will it be about the government's performance against opposition parties? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

It’s World Tariff Day – or Liberation Day, depending on what you prefer to call it – but we won’t know for certain what levies Donald Trump will impose on the world until around 9 p.m. this evening. Sources are speculating that Trump still isn’t 100 per cent sure himself. But as the UK awaits its fate, what is the polling saying: should Starmer stand up to Trump? Also on the podcast, it’s just under a month until the local elections, and we have seen big launch events from Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. These are the parties expecting to do well – potentially winning upwards of 400 council seats each. Labour and the Tories, meanwhile, are managing expectations.

As figures now show there are 2.8 million people claiming out-of-work benefits, Rishi Sunak gave a speech looking at welfare reform. But with more and more people off work for mental health related issues, could the Tories’ focus backfire if the public think they’re trivialising mental health? Also on the podcast, a look ahead to the mayoral elections.  James Heale discusses with Isabel Hardman and Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common.   Produced by Patrick Gibbons.