Limor Simhony Philpott

Israel has started to prepare for a ground invasion of Lebanon amid international calls for ceasefire. This is the next stage of Israel’s operation against Hezbollah – which began with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, and continued with the killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, as well as nearly all of the terror organisation’s top commanders. The Israeli air force continues to bomb Hezbollah’s infrastructure and is preparing the ground for troops to enter southern Lebanon, which might happen later this week. Special units from the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have already carried out limited operations across the border, in order to gather vital information that will aid forces during a ground manoeuvre and reduce risk.

It was late in 1997 when I got to a small military base on the border between Israel and Lebanon. Straight out of training, my welcome to the base involved sitting in the war room wearing a helmet and a bulletproof vest, hoping that the barrage of rockets flying over our heads, courtesy of Hezbollah, wouldn’t hit. It was time of constant clashes with Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Casualties were commonplace. I’ve been to too many funerals and have seen too many parents bury their sons – my friends, peers and brothers in arms – than I’d care to remember. It was also a time when the Israeli public grew tired of Israel’s long presence in Lebanon. The war was attritional and there were many casualties.

This hasn’t been the easiest week for Hezbollah. It started with the terror organisation’s pagers mysteriously exploding, killing 37 people people (according to official reports) and injuring some 3,000 people, mostly members of the group. This has stunned Hezbollah – and the world. A day later, their walkie-talkies starting blowing up too.  The attacks, which have been attributed to Israel, are a serious security breech and have humiliated Hezbollah. In response, the organisation’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah conceded today that Hezbollah has suffered a considerable blow and accused Israel of ‘crossing the red line,’ adding that they actions could be viewed as a ‘declaration of war.

Has Hamas finally been defeated in Gaza, nearly a year after it launched the most deadly attack in Israel’s history? Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has proclaimed that Hamas no longer has a military capacity in Gaza.  Hamas has indeed suffered a considerable blow since October. Many of its tunnels – one of its greatest strategic assists – have been destroyed entirely or partially. Many of its commanders have been killed. Two of its top three leaders, Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa have been eliminated, as was the organisation’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran.  Although the precise number of killed Hamas terrorists is not known, it is substantial.

A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah now seems closer than at any point since 7 October. Recent escalations, including the killing of twelve Druze children by a Hezbollah rocket and the assassination of the organisation’s armed forces commander, mean that war is now a more likely scenario. A war in Lebanon would look very differently to the war in Gaza. Hezbollah has always been bigger and more powerful than Hamas. Much of Hezbollah’s extensive weapons come from Iran. According to Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), these include long, medium and short-range precision missiles, more than 150,000 rockets, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, and drones used for reconnaissance and attacks.

If Donald Trump becomes president again – which seems likely – American policy towards Israel could see a dramatic shift. Since the war between Israel and Hamas started last October, Trump has repeatedly expressed his support for Israel. The head of the Republican Jewish Coalition claimed that Trump would grant Israel ‘a blank cheque’ to finish off Hamas. Trump also warned that if Hamas doesn’t release the hostages, they’ll ‘pay a big price’ if he becomes president. Many Israelis, including those in government, assume that a Trump/Vance win would be beneficial for Israel. A closer look shows that it may not necessarily be so. When the war against Hamas started, president Joe Biden sent considerable American forces to the region.

Israel has started another round of strikes in Khan Younis, having left the Gazan city in April. This isn’t the first time that Israeli forces had to return to areas from which they’ve already withdrawn. As Hamas terrorists flee current fighting zones, such as Rafah in southern Gaza, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) need to stop them from re-establishing fighting capabilities elsewhere. Having advised Palestinian civilians to leave areas in which terrorist infrastructure and activity exist in Khan Younis, the IDF has carried out several strikes last night and today. This was also in response to a barrage of rockets fired from the area into Israel by the terrorist organisation the Palestinian Islamic Jihad on Monday. The back-and-forth is likely to continue for some time.