Katy Balls

It will take 100 MP nominations to qualify for the next Tory leadership race and the clock is ticking – with Boris Johnson out in front with 51 supporters so far. Rishi Sunak has 44 and Penny Mordaunt 20. It will go to the membership for a swift decision unless the finalists come to a gentleman’s agreement. So how will it unfold? I set out four scenarios of how this might unfold in The Spectator earlier this month. There are two that MPs have most recently got in touch about: Rishi by Christmas or the Boris restoration. A week is a long time in politics – and next week could be one of the most dramatic yet A week is a long time in politics – and next week could be one of the most dramatic yet. Let’s start with the first.

At the first stage of the Conservative leadership race, when Liz Truss was trying to win MPs’ support, her message was that she was the one who could ‘unite the right’. Now, her plan to survive in No. 10 relies on dividing the Tory left. Regicide is a messy business. ‘It’s very hard to push her out,’ says a former cabinet minister. ‘We would need to change the rules. It could be seen as an establishment stitch-up. I think she needs to do the right thing and resign.’ Everyone in the Tory party agrees that there needs to be a unity candidate when Truss goes, but there is absolutely no unity on who that should be. ‘Until we know who to replace her with, we shouldn’t move,’ says a former government member.

When the phrases 'the Prime Minister is not under a desk' and 'I don't think there has been a coup' are put forward by a minister tasked with defending their boss, it's a sign that the parliamentary session has not gone to plan. This was the case this afternoon when Penny Mordaunt was sent to face the music on behalf of the Prime Minister. After Liz Truss U-turned on close to the entirety of her not-so-mini Budget this morning, Labour tabled an Urgent Question summoning Truss to explain herself. The Prime Minister declined – and sent the Leader of the House in her place. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the session was focussed on one simple question: where was Liz Truss? Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the session was focussed on one simple question: where was Liz Truss?

How much trouble is Liz Truss in? Just six weeks into her premiership, the Prime Minister's economic plans are in tatters after she axed her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, reversed on her campaign pledge to scrap the scheduled corporation tax hike and brought in Jeremy Hunt as his successor. Now Hunt is calling the shots on the economy and he plans to reverse much of what the Truss government have announced so far, with tax rises and public spending cuts to come. Truss's own supporters are privately asking what the point of her government is now. Unsurprisingly, this has all led to talk among Tory MPs that the end is nigh. One Tory MP, Crispin Blunt, has come out publicly to call for Truss to go.

Liz Truss made two big moves on Friday in a bid to calm the markets and save her premiership. The first was to announce that she was ditching plans to cancel the scheduled corporation tax rise. The second was that she had sacked her chancellor and long standing ally Kwasi Kwarteng – bringing Jeremy Hunt in as his successor. There have been lots of problems when it comes to the fallout from the not-so-mini Budget but the thing that really focussed minds in No. 10 was a preview of the OBR forecast last Friday which pointed to a financial blackhole as a result of unfunded tax cuts and the energy package. It was viewed as so bad that something needed to change when it came to the government's plans. That change appears to now mean an entirely new economic outlook.

How does this end? That's the question being asked by Tory MPs as Liz Truss’s government finds itself in turmoil once again. The Prime Minister’s decision to axe her chancellor and U-turn on a plan to ditch the corporation tax has only added to nerves in the Conservative party as to how sustainable the current situation is in. It's clear that different wings of the party are incredibly unhappy with the current leadership. Yet Truss is technically safe from challenge for another year. What's more, it's not clear who exactly the party could agree on. Earlier this month, I wrote for the magazine on the scenarios being war-gamed by ministers, MPs and aides.