Katy Balls

Rishi Sunak’s election gamble has hit a little turbulence less than 24 hours in. Several members of the cabinet voiced concern over the move to call a summer election, while many Tory MPs are seeing red. Then there was the rain that poured as Sunak tried to address the nation – with loud background music playing out from the street. But at least one rather significant part of the Tory strategy appears to be paying off: Reform. One of the arguments those close to Sunak made for opting for July rather than waiting for an autumn election was that it could stave off a Nigel Farage comeback.

By the end of the year, Britain may be one of the few countries in the democratic world where the right is losing. In America, Donald Trump is the favourite to win. Ahead of next month’s European Parliament elections, momentum is with Germany’s AfD, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Austria’s Freedom party. Migration is the most pertinent issue pushing Europe rightwards, but many voters are also turning to insurgent right-wing parties as a rebellion against the cost of net-zero policies. Labour sees an electoral benefit in sticking to its green energy plans to stop voters defecting to the Greens In the UK, the future of green scepticism looks somewhat different.

‘Only a Conservative government, led by me, will not put our hard-earned economic stability at risk,’ said Rishi Sunak as he announced a general election on the steps of Downing Street in the pouring rain. Upon these words, the Labour anthem ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ boomed out from the street. The din made the rest of his speech nearly inaudible. His suit jacket went from wet to soaking. ‘It’s bizarre,’ said one former minister. ‘How are we supposed to trust No. 10’s judgment when no one in the group even knows what an umbrella is?

Will Rishi Sunak call an election today? That is the rumour ripping through Westminster. Speaking at Prime Minister's Questions this lunchtime, Sunak did little to quell the speculation. When asked by the SNP’s Stephen Flynn whether the rumours were right that a July election announcement was imminent, Sunak replied ‘spoiler alert’, before repeating his usual line that an election will be held in the second half of the year. Of course that does not rule out a July election – nor does it confirm it. This isn't the first time there has been talk of an early election. So, what’s different now? There have been rumours for some time that Sunak could use good news on inflation (which fell to around 2 per cent this morning) to call an election.