Katy Balls

It’s World Tariff Day – or Liberation Day, depending on what you prefer to call it – but we won’t know for certain what levies Donald Trump will impose on the world until around 9 p.m. this evening. Sources are speculating that Trump still isn’t 100 per cent sure himself. But as the UK awaits its fate, what is the polling saying: should Starmer stand up to Trump? Also on the podcast, it’s just under a month until the local elections, and we have seen big launch events from Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. These are the parties expecting to do well – potentially winning upwards of 400 council seats each. Labour and the Tories, meanwhile, are managing expectations.

Britain’s real economic pain starts today. Overnight, the cost of living has jumped once again: energy, water, broadband, public transport, TV licences – all up. So too are council tax bills, capital gains, and vehicle taxes. And that’s before we even get to the slow stealth march of fiscal drag and the impact of World Tariff Day which could wipe out Rachel Reeve's newly restored headroom. Jonathan Reynolds was the unlucky minister on the broadcast round this morning trying to defend this increasingly bleak picture, is there any good news?  James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Michael Simmons.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

This week will see ‘World Tariff Day’ – as those in Westminster are not-so-excitedly calling Wednesday – when Donald Trump will announce a wave of new tariffs. Trump is expected to reveal plans for reciprocal tariffs aimed at addressing what he sees as an ongoing trade imbalance between the US and other countries. He argues that it is ‘finally time for the Good Ol’ USA to get some of that MONEY, and RESPECT, BACK. GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!’. It had looked as though the Prime Minister’s softly-softly approach to US relations was working and that we might avoid Trump’s levies... that was until the UK was included in the 25 per cent tariff on cars and auto parts imported into the US, along with steel. There is some hope, however.

Kim Leadbeater has been an MP since winning the Batley & Spen by-election for Labour in 2021. She was elected to the constituency that her sister, Jo Cox, had served until she was murdered during the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign. Having pursued a career in health and fitness, Kim hadn’t initially intended on a life in politics, but she went on to champion social and political cohesion through the Jo Cox Foundation and the More in Common initiative. More recently, she has led the campaign to legalise Assisted Dying. The Bill is currently making its way through Parliament and has been described as the biggest social reform in a generation.

It’s the morning after the afternoon before, and Rachel Reeves has just finished her broadcast round, where she has faced tough questions and negative splashes in the papers. The Daily Mail brands Reeves ‘deluded’, while the Daily Telegraph warns of ‘five years of record taxes’. The Guardian splashes with ‘Reeves accused of balancing books at expense of the poor’, while the Financial Times says, ‘Tax rise fears cloud Reeves’s fiscal fix’. She is navigating two main issues: first, the additional welfare reforms have caused disquiet in the Labour Party, with a potential rebellion on the horizon; second, the conversation has already turned to whether she will have to return for further tax rises in the autumn.

This afternoon, Rachel Reeves made good on her promise to deliver only one fiscal set piece per calendar year by announcing what is widely being considered a Budget... this precedes a spending review in the summer and an actual Budget in the autumn. The headline is that the Chancellor had to find £15 billion in spending cuts to restore her headroom and keep within her own ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules. This comes after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) confirmed that the £9.9 billion margin she left herself in the autumn has disappeared. The OBR has also halved its growth projections – bleak news for the government.

Hard hats on for the Spring Statement tomorrow, where at around midday Rachel Reeves will deliver her fiscal update (read: significant fiscal set piece). Aside from not spooking the markets, the Chancellor will be hoping that she doesn’t spook those within her own party. There are rumours of discontent circling around Westminster about a potential Labour split. We have already seen secretaries of state briefing out their discontent over potential departmental cuts. Ministers have also been breaking rank this week to criticise Rachel Reeves for accepting free Sabrina Carpenter tickets. Can she keep the party united? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and John McTernan, former political secretary to Tony Blair. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Reports in the papers today say that the British government is considering scrapping its digital services tax – largely levied at American tech companies – in return for an exemption to Trump's tariffs that come into effect on April 2. Would this be an effective – or desirable – move on the British part? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Cindy Yu.

It's been Kemi-takes-action week for the Conservatives, with the leader of the opposition trying to prove that she can – in fact – do policy. She launched a series of policy reviews, which will be delivered in a steady stream between now and conference, with a headline statement on Net Zero, declaring that Britain’s 2050 emissions target was ‘impossible’. That went down well with the party, and many thought her announcement felt genuinely proactive rather than reactive. After months of being criticised for not doing enough, is she finally shifting the dial? Will it be enough to avoid a local elections wipeout? Katy Balls speaks to James Heale and Paul Goodman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Cindy Yu.

The question that everyone in Westminster wants answered is what will actually be included in next week’s Spring Statement. Previously, the Spring Statement wasn’t looking like much to write home about – little more than an update. But with the economy taking a turn for the worse and her fiscal headroom narrowing, it has taken on renewed importance for Rachel Reeves, with the opposition trying their best to brand it as an ‘Emergency Budget’. What does Reeves need to do to calm the markets? Also on the podcast, Pensions Minister Torsten Bell gave an interesting interview to Newsnight last night, defending the government’s welfare reforms. Where are we with the fallout from Liz Kendall’s benefit crackdown? James Heale speaks to Isabel Hardman and Katy Balls.

This afternoon we had Liz Kendall’s long-awaited address in the Commons on Labour’s plans for welfare reform. The prospect of £5 billion worth of cuts to welfare has split the party in two, with fears of a rebellion growing over the weekend and into this week. Her announcement was a mixed bag, including: restricting eligibility for the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) so that only those who have the highest level of disability can claim the benefit and – to sweeten the deal for backbenchers – announcing that the government will not bring in vouchers for disability benefit or freeze PIP. One of the new lines that had not been trailed in advance was that under 22s would not be eligible for the health top-up of Universal Credit (UC). What’s the politics of all this?