Kate Andrews

I’ve been lucky enough in my working life so far to hold a string of jobs that have allowed me – if not actively encouraged me – to be critical of government. Coming up through Westminster thinktanks in my twenties, I had great fun putting out press releases that tore apart bad public policy. When I had the opportunity to speak to MPs, they’d remind me of the ‘political realities’ that tied their hands and prevented change. In other words, check your policy privilege. Thinktank wonks, commentators and journalists can make all the punchy points they want; they don’t face re-election.

I suspect Rishi Sunak will watch back last night’s BBC Tory leadership debate with some regret. His frequent interruptions of Liz Truss did him no favours — not simply because it came across at points as impolite, but because on plenty of occasions he would have been better off letting her answer his questions (or not answer his questions, as it was apparent on things like interest rates that she had not come equipped with answers). But Truss is at risk of making Sunak’s mistakes her mistakes. In response to Sunak’s debating tactics, Team Truss is going hard on the misogyny angle. Sunak’s performance is being explained in heavily gendered terms by Truss’s allies.

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have only a few weeks to make their case before postal voting begins on 1 August. Sunak has vowed to be 'the heir to Margaret Thatcher' in a comment piece in the Daily Telegraph today, in which he promises to deliver a 'radical' set of reform, without expanding much on what that reform would look like. Meanwhile Truss joined BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning to double down on her plans to grow the economy, admitting that ‘twenty years of economic policy haven't delivered growth’, even if the majority of this time has been under Conservative leadership.

The Tory grassroots have got themselves a real economic debate this summer: Rishi Sunak’s ‘Thatcherite’ economic philosophy vs Liz Truss’s ‘Reaganite’ plans to boost growth. It’s not the most obvious distinction, given the former prime minister and president were great free-market allies. Both also cut tax. But it’s about the order of priorities: like the Thatcher years, Sunak believes that the most important task is getting inflation under control, which was reporting this morning to have hit a 40-year-high, rising by 9.4 per cent on the year in June. This is how he justifies the tax hikes he ushered in as chancellor, comparing them to what Nigel Lawson did in Thatcher’s government.

Rather unsurprisingly, the bulk of MPs who have declared their leadership bids so far are promising lower taxes. Also unsurprisingly, very few details are on offer explaining how they’d do it. In Nadhim Zahawi’s early pitch to the public — he is expected to share more tomorrow — he’s asserted that ‘taxes for individuals, families and business need to be lower - and will be on my watch.’ Tom Tugendhat's ‘clean start’ manifesto made a similar point: ‘Taxes, bluntly, are too high,’ he asserted, ‘and there is an emerging consensus across the party that they must come down.

What does Boris Johnson’s resignation mean for the economy? The pound started its rebound yesterday from a two-year low against the US dollar after Johnson resigned. A few economists were quick to point out though that it had dropped so much, there was only one place it could really go: up.  It’s very likely this leadership race turns into a competition over who would cut taxes hardest and fastest, which is no bad thing Had Johnson managed a few more months in the role, we would have almost certainly seen some deficit-financed tax cuts, led by the new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi. ‘We were 24 hours away from reversing the corporation tax hike,’ one minister tells me, which will rise from 19 per cent to 25 per cent for large companies.

On Tuesday, the last cabinet meeting with Sajid Javid as health secretary and Rishi Sunak as chancellor passed without any hint that either was about to resign. The ministers did not co-ordinate their resignations, but they had both been tipped over the edge by growing evidence that No. 10 had misled MPs by declaring Boris Johnson had no prior knowledge of Chris Pincher’s behaviour. Sunak had also grown tired of the Prime Minister’s economic ‘cake-ism’ – the fantasy of wanting both high spending and low taxes. The contradictions had become untenable. In that cabinet meeting, Johnson offered more cake. He was his usual ebullient self, promising a morale-raising speech to move on from recent woes. It was Michael Gove who confronted him.

We will never know the counterfactuals of the past few years. What if another MP had been made Chancellor when Sajid Javid resigned (the first time)? What if a green chancellor Rishi Sunak hadn’t had a pandemic to manage? While we can’t answer these questions, it’s hard to imagine any MP – certainly on the left, even on the right – taking fiscal responsibility as seriously as Sunak did when he had the permission of his party – and politicians the world over – to throw it out the window. I suspect it won’t take long for us to start missing the former Chancellor and the critical role he played in taming the Prime Minister’s spending habits.

Birthday celebrations for the NHS this year are relatively quiet. In recent years the health service has received multi-billion pound top-ups from the taxpayer, not to mention high praise from politicians across the political spectrum. This may be in part because the government has already seen to the big NHS pledges, including the 2.5 per cent National Insurance hike, split between workers and employers, which is bringing in roughly £6 billion to pay for Covid catch-up. But no doubt this year’s notable silence is also linked to just how bad that catch-up is going.

When Boris Johnson was campaigning for Brexit, he placed much importance on World Trade Organisation rules. The WTO, he’d argue, had an internationally-recognised free trade rule book - which was ready and waiting to be used as a substitute to the European Union system. This is why he could face some very difficult questions next week if he decides to extend tariffs on steel imports in a way that some think flout WTO rules. Last year the PM ignored advice from the independent Trade Remedies Authority – a trade watchdog which his government created post-Brexit – which wanted him to ditch some of the tariffs currently in place that, they said, weren’t making a meaningful difference anyway.