Kate Andrews

There is no such thing as free money. This was learned the hard way last month, when investors made clear after Liz Truss’s mini-Budget that the era of cheap money was over. Mass borrowing for day-to-day spending was going to have a big premium attached: a bill so large that no government would want to pay. Rishi Sunak understood this delicate dynamic, and said so many times over the summer. His willingness to admit the truth – that the government’s many promises can’t be delivered for free – is what, eventually, landed him in No. 10. But now in power, Sunak and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt risk making another ‘easy money’ assumption, albeit a very different one. The massive profits of the energy companies have, once again, caught Sunak’s eye. It’s not hard to see why.

When Rishi Sunak entered No. 10 on Tuesday, he paid lip service to the aims of his predecessor. Liz Truss ‘was not wrong to want to improve growth in this country’, he said outside Downing Street. But ‘mistakes were made’ which is why he was installed as Prime Minister: to fix the economic fiasco that has overwhelmed Britain over these past few weeks. This morning’s news about looming growth forecasts brings both statements to the fore. Just over a week ago, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt thought he had to find upwards of £30 billion worth of spending cuts and tax hikes to fill the black hole in the public finances. But Treasury officials have told the BBC that Sunak and Hunt together may be looking for something closer to £50 billion to get the public finances back in order.

The date of the fiscal statement has changed again. The Treasury has announced that the update – now being billed as an ‘Autumn Statement’ – will be pushed back from 31 October to 17 November, just six days earlier than the original date planned by Kwasi Kwarteng. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the delay means it will be based on the 'most accurate possible' economic forecasts. A hold-up was expected once it became clear that Rishi Sunak was going to emerge as the next Tory leader and Prime Minister. Penny Mordaunt was thought to have told chancellor Jeremy Hunt that his statement would go ahead as normal if she won the leadership race.

In the coming weeks we’re going to learn a lot more about what went so badly wrong inside Liz Truss’s government. Indeed, my colleague James Heale is co-writing the book on it. As Rishi Sunak heads into No. 10 in a bid to undo some of the damage (‘mistakes were made…’ he said on the steps of Downing Street this morning, ‘...and I have been elected as leader of my party, and your Prime Minister, in part, to fix them’) we are bound to learn more about the miscalculations, bad advice, and hubris that ultimately led to the undoing of prime minister Truss in just a matter of weeks. It seems likely that a common thread will join these slip-ups together: that Liz Truss should have known better than to make the economic mistakes she did.

In the brief time Sajid Javid was chancellor to Boris Johnson, he spelled out to The Spectator his ‘low for long’ theory about rates: a theory which would enable the new prime minister’s ambitious spending agenda. Speaking to Fraser Nelson in December 2019, Javid was confident that the era of ultra-low interest rates and extremely favourable borrowing costs was here to stay. ‘It just felt quite ludicrous seeing that a government could borrow at negative real interest rates and not take advantage of that,’ the then-chancellor told the magazine.

Liz Truss did not think that spending cuts would be a major part of her agenda. She and her first chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, were confident that markets, having lent Britain billions of pounds to cover the cost of the lockdowns, would be more than happy to do the same to transform the economy. Their argument was, as it turned out, calamitously wrong. The miscalculation cost Kwarteng his job and the Prime Minister her power. Truss’s new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has dismantled almost all of her plans. ‘Trussonomics’ has been snuffed out. This temporarily calmed the markets. But abandoning tax cuts – as painful as it was – will soon prove to have been the easier part of the job.

Jeremy Hunt set out at the start of the weekend with one goal in mind: that when the gilt markets reopened on Monday, the cost of government borrowing would not surge further. Ideally, it would start to fall. In this sense, it’s been a successful day for the new Chancellor. The Treasury's early morning update that a major fiscal announcement was about to be announced saw gilt yields start to drop when markets opened at 8 a.m. After Hunt’s overhaul of the mini-Budget – including the surprising decision to suspend the 1p cut to the basic rate of tax ‘indefinitely’ – they fell even further. After starting the day at almost 4.5 per cent, the five-year gilt yield is ending the day just below 4 per cent.

This morning on the media round, Jeremy Hunt followed in the footsteps of Tory chancellors before him warning about the ‘very difficult decisions’ that lie ahead. The new chancellor’s language and tone could easily be compared to George Osborne after the financial crisis, explaining to the country why government spending needed to be curbed. Or to Rishi Sunak, towards the end of the crisis stage of the pandemic, who was constantly reminding MPs and the public about the ‘difficult times ahead’ due to the fallout from economic shutdowns and unprecedented peacetime spending. The crucial difference, however, is that this new talk of spending cuts and higher taxes is in response to a crisis of the government’s own making.

After two major U-turns over last month’s mini-Budget and the sacking of a chancellor, what’s left of Liz Truss’s economic agenda? Parts of it remain intact. But it’s now shaping up to be significantly different from what the Prime Minister intended when she entered Downing Street. The key assumption behind Trussonomics as it was developed during the leadership race was that the markets would be delighted to lend to the government, on the cheap, to see through its tax-cutting, growth-stimulating agenda. That assumption was quickly killed off after former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng sat down from presenting his mini-Budget, and the cost paid by governments to borrow began to soar.