Kate Andrews

Will the government have room for tax cuts before an election? Politically, it’s thought to be non-negotiable that they must. Having put the tax burden on course for a post-war high by the end of this Parliament, Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt are going to have to relieve some of that pressure on taxpayers before going head-to-head with Labour next year. But will the public finances allow for it? On the surface, today’s update from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) appears to offer up some good news: public sector net borrowing in August came in at £11.6 billion. That’s £3.5 billion higher than August 2022, but £1.4 billion below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest forecast. Overall, the Treasury has borrowed £11.

Jeremy Hunt has been warning for weeks that inflation could rise over the summer due to an increase in fuel prices. Economists said much the same: the consensus was that the headline rate would jump to 7.1 per cent on the year in August. But this morning the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the rate of inflation continued to slow last month: rising to 6.7 per cent on the year in August, down from 6.8 per cent in July. This is a rare occasion where ministers have under-promised on the inflation figures, triggering headlines like ‘surprise fall.

You’d struggle to describe the start of 2023 as anything like ‘good economic times'. But according to the OECD’s economic outlook interim report, it’s better than what’s to come. The report, published this morning, expects rising rates around the world to take their toll on economic growth. Global growth has been downgraded for next year – from 2.9 per cent in 2024 to 2.7 per cent – which is lower than the 3 per cent growth expected this year. The report notes that a ‘stronger-than-expected’ start to the year makes it all but impossible for growth to keep pace: the fall in energy prices coupled with China’s comeback post-pandemic gave global growth rates their boost.

Was Liz Truss a fiscal hawk inside No. 10? That is the rather startling claim made by the former prime minister, speaking today at the Institute for Government about the future of economic growth. She has claimed public spending would be £35 billion lower over the next few years had her plans been followed, due to the real-term spending cuts that would have followed from not reopening the latest Spending Review. Moreover, she insists that her mini-Budget was not just about going for growth, but rather a ‘three-pronged approach’ that included ‘targeted tax freezes and reductions, supply side reform and holding public spending down.’ This is the first time we’ve heard Truss so explicitly argue that her plans included spending restraint.

Train drivers will strike for two days in the coming weeks, on 30 September and 4 October. These dates are no coincidence: they directly overlap with when MPs and attendees will be travelling to and from the Conservative party conference in Manchester. This move from Aslef and the RMT is far from subtle: the unions may be locked in a pay battle with train companies, but it’s the government’s attention they are hoping to get. The train strikes add to a growing list of other walkouts planned over the next few weeks. Consultants and junior doctors will also be walking out separately this month. But then in an unprecedented move, they will be striking at the same time, from October 2-4. Again, this is a direct overlap with the party conference.

Last week’s anniversary of Liz Truss entering Downing Street could have passed by quietly. But the Trussites had other ideas. Her supporters used the moment to make the case for Trussonomics once again: to say that Truss diagnosed the country’s problems correctly and that she was on track to find solutions – until her many conspirators took her down. As it turned out, the cheerleading was a warm-up to the big event: yesterday Truss announced the details of her upcoming book – Ten Years to Save the West – which will be published next spring.

Is the UK set for its 15th consecutive interest rate hike later this month? Markets expect that rates will peak closer to 6 per cent – up from 5.25 per cent now – but this might not happen immediately – or at all. Speaking at today’s Treasury Select Committee, the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey suggested rate hikes were no longer a matter of certainty, as the headline rate of inflation is now back on track with the Bank’s projections for a significant fall by the end of the year. Speaking to MPs this afternoon, Bailey said that the UK had moved on ‘from a period ... where it was clear rates needed to rise going forward,’ insisting ‘we’re not in that place any more’.

It’s not often that we see a GDP revision as startling as the one published today. In its Blue Book for 2023 – which includes updated methods for a range of calculations – the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has upgraded the size of the economy in the final quarter of 2021 by 1.7 per cent. This means that by the time the Omicron variant hit, the UK economy was actually 0.6 per cent above its pre-Covid level – not 1.2 per cent below, as previously stated.  This is a staggering difference. It was thought as recently as this summer that GDP still had not returned to its pre-pandemic levels. Today we learn this milestone was actually passed almost two years ago. This changes the international picture completely.