Jonathan Spyer

Nothing is yet confirmed, but it appears that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah is imminent. The fighting, which began on 8 October last year, has claimed thousands of lives and left the Israel-Lebanon border area decimated on both sides. But there is anger that Israel is rushing into an agreement that will not keep those who live near to the Lebanese border safe. Community leaders in Israel’s north have reacted with anger to the announcement of the proposed cessation in hostilities. They noted that while Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border has been extensively damaged, the movement itself has not been destroyed. The proposed agreement also does not include a buffer zone.

Two senior US officials are in the Middle East this week, with the joint mission of negotiating an end to the current war between Israel and a number of Iran-backed Islamist militias. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday. US Special Envoy on Lebanon Amos Hochstein was in Beirut on Monday. Are the two faced with a mission impossible, or is there a chance that their efforts may forge a pathway to bring the year-long conflict to an end? At the start of this week, Israeli aircraft carried out a series of attacks on Hezbollah targets deep inside Lebanon. These included the headquarters of the organisation’s aerial division. Hezbollah responded with rocket fire on central and northern Tel Aviv.

Israel’s overt ground intervention into Lebanon is now entering its third week.  So far, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have advanced just a few kilometers in and established control in a number of locations across the border.  The IDF itself has described its ground action on the border as consisting of ‘limited, localised and targeted raids.’  Standing at a border observation post a few days ago, my impression was that this description appears accurate, at least for now.  Looking across to the towns of Bint Jbeil, Maroun a Ras, Ain Ebel and Ait a Shaab, we heard the occasional sound of artillery cannons.  Twice, we saw interceptions of ordnance fired from the Lebanese side.

Travelling through the Gaza border area on the morning of October 8, 2023, I was struck by a sense of familiarity. The scenes of destruction, the burnt buildings, and the smashed-up cars by the side of the road were, of course, profoundly shocking. But they were not, at least to me, unfathomable. Unlike most of my fellow Israeli citizens, I had spent a good part of the preceding decade in close proximity to the wars in Syria and Iraq. I knew then, immediately, what had just happened in the kibbutz of Israel's southern region was what happens when a Sunni jihadi organisation finds a way through to the helpless civilian population of one of its enemies. The day after the massacre, the border area, where so many Israelis had lost their lives, was a place of ruin and destruction.

Iran's decision to launch 181 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday night followed a similar pattern to the attacks of 14 April. Israeli and allied air defences appear to have performed extremely effectively. The damage to the military and civilian sites targeted is minor to non-existent. One Palestinian Arab man was killed in a village near Jericho, not from the Iranian missiles, it appears, but from interceptor debris.   I live in a Jerusalem neighbourhood on what’s called the ‘Seam Line’ between the Jewish and Arab populations.

Israel has carried out its largest-scale operation against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon since the summer war of 2006. Wave after wave of Israeli aircraft struck at 1,600 targets across Lebanon yesterday with the aim of targeting Hezbollah weapons stores. Nearly 500 people were killed, according to figures issued by the Lebanese authorities. After nearly twelve months of controlled escalation on Israel’s northern border, we are now potentially on the cusp of all-out war.   Israel’s purpose in increasing the pressure on Hezbollah and Lebanon is to drive a wedge between the various components of the Iran-led regional alliance currently engaged against it.

The killing of 12 people, including several Hezbollah members, and the wounding of thousands more when 5,000 pagers simultaneously exploded in Lebanon yesterday represents an obvious tactical triumph for Israel (or whoever carried it out). The sight of members of the Iran-supported Shia Islamist group suddenly collapsing in agony while performing mundane daily tasks was met with great amusement by the movement’s many enemies across the region. Displaying the somewhat gleeful and malicious humour which characterises all sides in the Levant, a variety of memes mocking the hapless victims of the grim beeper soon proliferated.   Hilarity aside, the operation displays the extent to which Hezbollah has been thoroughly penetrated by its opposite number.

As its Gaza campaign cools, Israel’s attention is returning northwards. Approximately 60,000 Israelis from northern communities are still refugees. A reckoning between Israel and the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah appears to be only a matter of time. Two significant strikes this week suggest that Israel is preparing for a potentially imminent major confrontation, and broadening the scope of its operations on the northern front. In the first attack, according to reports in Syrian state media, Israeli aircraft hit targets in the Hama area in western Syria on the night of 7-8 September. 18 people were reported killed, and over 43 wounded.

The murder of six Israeli hostages by Hamas in Gaza earlier this week led to an outpouring of grief and fury in Israel. For a considerable and vocal section of the public, the anger was directed – in a way perhaps surprising to outsiders – not against the Islamist group responsible for the murders, but against the Israeli government. Large and stormy demonstrations took place in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The Histadrut, Israel’s trade union federation, organised a (partially observed) one-day general strike. The demonstrators’ demand was a simple one: a deal to release the 97 remaining hostages now. At least 33, by the way, and possibly more of the Israelis remaining in Gaza, are believed by the authorities to now be dead.

The latest information seeping out from the negotiations for an end to the war in Gaza suggest that agreement between the sides remains out of reach. According to a report by Axios today, Hamas yesterday rejected an updated US proposal, claiming that the new formula aligned with attempts by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to raise 'new conditions and demands with the aim of undermining the mediators' efforts and prolonging the war'. While one should not rule out the possibility that we are the recipients of a messaging strategy designed to secure further concessions in the negotiations, it does appear that the talks are floundering on substantive gaps between the two sides.