Jonathan Campbell-James

Jonathan Campbell-James served for 32 years in the Intelligence Corps, in a career focused primarily on the Middle East

Iran has the most to lose if it closes the Strait of Hormuz

From our UK edition

Following the mass ballistic missile attack on Israel at the beginning of the month, speculation is rife once again that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz should it be subject to the reprisal attack promised by Israel. The thinking is that this is particularly likely if Israel were to attack Iranian oil facilities. Iran certainly has the capability to close the Strait, at least in the short term. Recent experience in the Red and Black Seas shows clearly that not every ship attempting passage needs to be attacked: the increased risk – and heightened insurance premiums – following a small number of attacks will be enough to persuade owners to withdraw their vessels from the potential danger.

How will Israel retaliate against Iran?

From our UK edition

When Iran attacked Israel last week with a barrage of missiles, one thing was certain: Israel would hit back hard. Ten days on, that response has still not come. Yoav Gallant, Israel's defence minister, has warned that the retaliatory strike on Iran will have an element of surprise. Israel’s attack, he said, 'will be deadly, precise and above all surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened, they will see the results.’ A wounded Iran with the IRGC still in charge could prove more dangerous Gallant knows that this element of surprise is critical; without it, Israel may have insufficient conventional capability to land a decisive first-blow strike.

Could the Chagos handover put the Diego Garcia military base at risk?

From our UK edition

The decision to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius has taken many by surprise. After years of painful negotiations, the speed with which the Labour government concluded a deal seems striking. But while the terms of the treaty to settle the future of the Chagos appear to have been thrashed out quickly, it's a decision that could come back to bite in the years and decades to come. This could spell trouble in the years ahead The Foreign Office statement frames the agreement as a resolution of all outstanding differences with Mauritius, but one which also protects the continued operation of the strategically-important joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia. Is that really the case?