Jonathan Brown

The current phase of the disaster rolling through the Middle East hinges on whether a ceasefire in Lebanon should be a prerequisite for a ceasefire in the Gulf and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has made it an explicit British government demand (more of a polite suggestion as countries without deployable armed forces can’t really make demands), that any ceasefire deal with Iran must include Lebanon to achieve an enduring peace. This is not to suggest that a separate deal with Lebanon is not desirable (talks are indeed in progress) but an overarching deal which includes Lebanon, would be an unmitigated strategic disaster. It would be unacceptable to the Israelis and bake unprecedented global turbulence.

In the final scene of Casablanca, Humphrey Bogart explains to Ingrid Bergman why she’ll regret staying with him – ‘maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life’. The same can be said of when we’ll feel the impact of AI on the workforce. A tsunami is coming that will hit the entire political economy of Britain and the world. And a real danger is that that shock will cause a leftwards lurch and massive state intervention. We are therefore facing one of the biggest economic shocks the nation has ever seen The CEOs of Microsoft and Anthropic have already predicted that within 18 months AI will essentially be able to do any white-collar job and do it better than most humans.