John Smith

John Smith is an analyst at EuroIntelligence.

How Russia is splitting the EU

From our UK edition

Russia is turning off the gas to Poland; the country’s state-owned gas supplier has refused to pay Gazprom in roubles. Bulgaria has also said that Russia would shut off their gas supplies. This is a serious escalation and raises questions about how other countries will respond to the demand. The risk of EU unity fracturing is growing. For Vladimir Putin, the rouble demand serves an important geopolitical purpose: splitting the West. What Germany and its energy buyers will do is critical. Circumventing the sanctions, as it seems Germany is doing, especially while other EU countries are having their gas shut off for adhering to sanctions rules, will break EU solidarity. And it will add fuel to an already-raging dispute between Poland and Germany.

Is Orbán serious about leaving the EU?

From our UK edition

First the UK decided to leave the EU. Then in Poland, lawmakers started talking about it. Is Hungary now seriously considering Huxit? For the first time ever, Viktor Orbán has insinuated that leaving the union could be a possibility. The Hungarian Prime Minister kicked off his campaign for re-election over the weekend by attacking Brussels’s ‘Jihad’ against his country and suggesting that continued membership of the EU might not be possible. This is obviously an alarming prospect for the EU. Over the course of Orbán’s premiership, Vladimir Putin has brought Hungary into his orbit. The latest step in that process was a 15-year gas deal signed in September. Russia will now supply about half of Hungary’s gas.