John Ferry

'A SNP MSP has claimed an independent Scotland could guarantee a couple with children a minimum income of more than £37,000 a year,' the Daily Record reported breathlessly this week, as it covered the SNP's latest plans for an independent Scotland. Then came the clincher: 'Neil Gray admits the plans have not been costed.' Neil Gray is an SNP MSP and deputy convenor of the party's Social Justice and Fairness Commission, which has published its final report: A Route Map to a Fair Independent Scotland. One of the report's key recommendations is for a pilot of a minimum income guarantee.

Get ready for a constitutional rammy during the first half of this, the sixth session of the Scottish parliament. Just don't expect it to be over a second independence referendum. Recent polling shows momentum has moved back in favour of those wishing to remain in the UK, while signals from the public also consistently suggest a lack of appetite for another referendum anytime soon. Nicola Sturgeon knows this, which means the phoney war over a repeat plebiscite will likely trundle on without bringing any great change to the country. The real action is elsewhere. Specifically, the upcoming review of the Fiscal Framework Agreement, which is set to be fraught and, unlike the referendum debate, actually has the potential to impact Scotland.

The war of the Salmondites versus the Sturgeonites is just getting started. Who knows how nasty it will get or what the longer term ramifications will be? Already apparent though is how Salmond's pantomime villain shimmy back into the political arena is forcing Nicola Sturgeon onto ground she would rather avoid during an election campaign. The usual SNP tactic around elections is to downplay separation talk and reach out to risk averse moderate voters, safe in the knowledge the party's most zealous supporters will stay in line. But with Salmond on the scene demanding to know how exactly Sturgeon will achieve independence, that is not an option. Sturgeon will have to make another referendum and her commitment to leaving the UK a central part of her campaign.

Don't worry if you missed the press release announcing which Scottish taxes are going up to pay for Nicola Sturgeon's headline grabbing four per cent minimum pay rise offer for certain front-line healthcare workers, including nurses. You missed it because there wasn't one. In characteristically hubristic form, the Scottish Government made the announcement just a few hours before the pre-election 'purdah' period began, with Sturgeon immediately taking to Twitter to declare:  'Our NHS staff deserve more than applause and one per cent is not enough'.  It was a thinly-veiled dig at the offer Boris Johnson's administration has put forward in England. Normally when a government makes an announcement like this the immediate question is: where is the money coming from?

A newly independent Scottish state would have to implement eye watering spending cuts or tax increases to stay afloat, according to new analysis. If the new state were to balance the books using tax increases alone then Scotland’s three income tax bands, which are broadly equivalent to the basic rate in the rest of the UK, would have to go up by 26 pence in the pound, taking Scotland’s basic rate to 46 pence. Alternatively, the gap could be filled by raising VAT from 20 per cent to 49 per cent. Such massive tax rises would represent at least 10 per cent of Scotland’s GDP. The analysis comes from a report by libertarian-leaning campaign group the TaxPayers’ Alliance (TPA), and was written by TPA chairman and ex-Treasury economist Mike Denham.

In a refreshing twist for Scotland's party of government, the latest potential scandal facing the SNP administration does not involve allegations of sexual misconduct, but rather high finance. Earlier this week, finance company Greensill Capital filed for administration. Greensill specialised in supply-chain finance, which involves acting as an intermediary to raise money on the back of payment commitments between companies and their suppliers. Greensill's innovative financing arrangements were instrumental in metals tycoon Sanjeev Gupta's rapid expansion of his business empire, including his 2016 acquisition of an aluminium smelter at Lochaber in the Scottish Highlands, plus two nearby hydroelectric dams.

Rishi Sunak's budget appeared to offer some good news to Scots, not that the SNP saw it that way. An additional £1.2 billion in Barnett funding was handed over to Scotland's government. This is on top of £9.7 billion in extra spending delivered over the past year for pandemic support. But the SNP Scottish government took a different view. 'While I welcome some of the announcements today, it is clear the Chancellor has not matched Scotland’s ambition for economic recovery and supporting households,' said Scottish Finance Secretary Kate Forbes. Forbes and her colleagues often point out that 'Scotland's ambition' includes more borrowing powers.

As the world continues its fight against Covid-19, the Scottish National Party has been busy plotting Scotland's exit from the UK. If the party gets its way and wins another referendum, Scots could soon find themselves living under a 'sterlingisation' currency system. The implications could be disastrous. It would be wrong to dismiss talk of another referendum as hypothetical. Powers over the UK's constitution may sit with Westminster, but recent polling demonstrates a sustained (small) majority for secession. The SNP continues to ride high in the polls, looks set to win convincingly in May's Holyrood election and has announced it intends to hold another referendum without UK government approval, if necessary.