James Forsyth

Martin Bright sheds light on what Brown’s inner circle are thinking about an early election in this week’s New Statesman. What stands out, though, is how thin-skinned they are.  Danny Finkelstein’s story about the influence of Bob Shrum on his conference speech has clearly got under their skin. One aide tells Bright that, "The behaviour of the Tories and some sections of the media shows they are already electioneering. Why should Gordon put up with another six months of this when he can't fight back?" Also note how Camilla Cavendish reveals in The Times this morning that, “The Prime Minister’s penchant for calling certain journalists in the early hours of the morning and taking them to task does not look terribly prime ministerial.

A few hours on from the end of conference and the new political landscape is becoming clearer. David Cameron has succeeded in uniting the Conservative party and the right more broadly behind him. The policies announced in Blackpool mean that Conservatives of all stripes now have positive reasons to want a Tory government. The leadership has also succeeded in distilling the work of the policy groups without anyone’s toys disappearing out of the pram. The more challenging bit comes now: they have to win over the country. As Tim notes, the news segments on the speech have been positive but watching them it is hard to feel that the case for change has been made.

Gordon Brown’s trip to Baghdad is the biggest political misjudgement of his leadership so far. It would have looked very different if the Tories were tearing themselves apart in Blackpool—Gordon could have posed as a statesman above such petty squabbles—but with conference going better than expected it looks like a cheap stunt; especially as Brown had pledged to announce any change in Iraq policy to the House of Commons first.  The Tories now have a huge opening to ram home to the public what everyone in Westminster knows: Brown is just as keen on spin as Blair. The line of attacks should be, if  Brown will play politics with the deployment of British troops overseas is there anything that he won’t do to win?

Boris has just brought the house down with a speech attacking Ken Livingstone and setting out the Tory agenda for London. One senses that Boris will have no problem in motivating the party activists to hit the streets for him. Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, was witty and self-deprecating and generally far better than I expected. Yet, I’m still sceptical of the decision to invite him. Bloomberg’s recent decision to quit the Republican Party and his flirtation with an independent run for the presidency has made him persona non grata with various sections of the Republican Party and his relationship with his predecessor and the Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani is far from good.

Today’s polls are grim for the Tories. Labour lead by double digits in both and with a uniform national swing would have a majority well into three figures. Gordon Brown is also well ahead of David Cameron on the key personal measures.  According to YouGov, Cameron has a net negative rating of 41 on being in touch with the concerns of people like you while Brown scores a plus 10 rating on this question. Populus has Brown leading 60 to 45% on the issue of caring about the problems that ordinary people face. While 50% think that Brown has answers to the key issues facing the country compared to only 30% for Cameron. YouGov also finds that 57% see Cameron as a lightweight compared to Brown and 56% think he is too like Blair.

The Taxpayers’ Alliance is reporting that George Osborne will pledge to abolish inheritance tax at Blackpool. The TPA believes that the proposal that Osborne will unveil will be very similar to the one proposed by the Tax Reform Commission. Inheritance tax as we know it will be abolished and replaced by a new kind of capital gains tax which treats death as equivalent to a sale of assets. Primary residences will be exempt from all tax. But all other assets will be subject to capital gains tax of up to 40%. Though, there will be taped relief through which this could fall to zero for assets owned for ten years.

I never understand why people hold the UN up as some great moral arbiter. Far from being some vehicle for the world’s collective good intentions, it is a classic balance of power institution whose main aim is to avoid a conflict between the great powers—and damn the consequences for the little people. Just look at how it is set up so that nothing can happen without the unanimous consent of the five permanent members of the Security Council. While this might have been a necessary evil during the Cold War, given that any direct confrontation between the super powers could have turned nuclear very quickly, it is far less defensible today.

Nick Robinson has a great post up on the generation gap opening up among the cabinet about whether or not to go to the polls now. As Robinson points out, the young bucks want to go this year, increase the Labour majority and dish the Tories for good. Indeed, if the Labour majority did rise to three figures—as the current polls predict it would, the Tory party would turn in on itself with such force that it would take a generation to recover.  If you’re a Miliband, Balls, Alexander or Purnell the prospect of spending the prime of your political life without any serious external opponents must seem worth the risk that a wet November night could depress turnout too far for comfort.

A new YouGov poll puts Labour 11 points ahead and further increases the pressure on Gordon Brown to call an election in the next few days. There’s little doubt that these numbers will strike fear into the hearts of Conservatives. The consolation for them is that this is about as bad as it gets. The survey was taken just after Brown had spoken at conference; the moment one would expect to be the high-water mark of Labour support. There are even some encouraging numbers in there for the Tories. Only 29 percent believe that it would be in Britain’s best interests to hold an election this year—suggesting that there might be a minor backlash against Labour if Brown does go early.