James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Brown meets the press

From our UK edition

The main news coming out of Gordon Brown’s monthly news conference is that nationalising Northern Rock is now clearly under serious consideration, with Brown and Alistair Darling both stressing that all options are on the table. The other notable thing was how Brown kept banging on about ‘the spirit of Christmas’ in, what came across on television, as a rather over the top fashion. One of the New Year’s resolutions for Brown’s media team must be to find a way of humanising him and allowing him to demonstrate some warmth and humour in a way that comes across as natural.

Clegg fails Cameron’s Paxman test

From our UK edition

Peter Hyman, Tony Blair’s former chief speechwriter, described Nick Clegg as a ‘mini-Cameron’ on Newsnight yesterday and there’s little doubt that Cameron and Clegg exude a similar aroma. Some think that this will dilute Cameron’s appeal, see Simon Heffer in the Telegraph this morning, but this ignores the fact that Clegg is not yet as able a politician as Cameron. For evidence of this, just compare how both fared against Jeremy Paxman. Last night, Clegg attempted to counter Paxman by questioning his entire method as Cameron famously did during the Tory leadership race in 2005. Clegg repeatedly told Paxman you can sneer if you like and tried to dismiss him as an old cynic. The result was, at best, a score draw—you can watch the exchange here.

Will it be third time lucky for Huhne?

From our UK edition

To lose by this small a margin must be absolutely gutting for Chris Huhne. To come so close against the candidate of the party establishment and the media is a real achievement. But this defeat need not be the end of the road for him.  What Huhne should do now is become the leading voice in the party against going into coalition without a guarantee of PR. This would not be technically disloyal and Nick Clegg would be hard pressed to slap him down over it. But it would position Huhne perfectly if there’s a hung parliament. Clegg would be sorely tempted to accept an offer to go into government and if he did, Huhne could resign on principle.

The challenge for Clegg

From our UK edition

A chastened looking Nick Clegg has just delivered his first speech as Lib Dem leader. It was actually a pretty decent performance, trying to tie both Labour and the Tories to Britain’s ‘broken politics’. It was also refreshing to hear him put social mobility at the top of his agenda. There is, though, no getting away from the fact that this result is the worst possible start to his leadership. Clegg actually received fewer votes than Chris Huhne did in 2006. If Clegg trips up early on in his leadership he could find himself being written off before he's really got started. The margin of victory means that he is essentially on probation for at least the first six months of his tenure.

A benchmark for Clegg

From our UK edition

The Lib Dem leadership result will be announced this afternoon and the general feeling in Westminster is that Nick Clegg has won, although folk aren’t ruling out an upset. The first test for Clegg will be whether he beats Chris Huhne by a more comfortable margin than Ming Campbell did in 2006, when the score in the final round was 57-42. Clegg’s next challenge will be to seize the news agenda, something that he was surprisingly poor at during the leadership contest. As Charlie Kennedy argues in The Guardian today, Vince Cable has been particularly good at this as he did not have to worry about his long term prospects and so could instead play things for short-term gain. But Clegg will have to be prepared to take risks if he is to make an impact.

Put the L plates on this government

From our UK edition

Following on from the child benefit data loss fiasco, the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency has—through an American contractor—lost the details of three million learner drivers. Now, admittedly the lost information doesn’t contain bank details or national insurance numbers. But The frequency with which the government is mislaying  personal data is surely killing off the prospects of ID cards.

A double-edged compliment

From our UK edition

Bob Kerrey, a maverick former Democratic senator, was out stumping for Hillary Clinton in Iowa yesterday and had this to say about Barack Obama: "I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim. There's a billion people on the planet that are Muslims and I think that experience is a big deal.” Now, maybe Kerrey—who is generally regarded as a decent guy—was being genuine.

Democratic VP candidate in 2000 endorses a Republican for president

From our UK edition

The news that Joe Lieberman, the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee in 2000, is to endorse John McCain, a Republican, for the presidency today, raises the question: has anyone who was on one of the main party’s tickets endorsed a presidential candidate from the other party within just eight years, before? Lieberman’s decision to endorse McCain now means—oddly enough—that he’ll face less criticism from Democrats than if he had waited. If Lieberman’s support for McCain is known it will have less impact in a general election if McCain is the Republican nominee. While if McCain misses out on the nomination and Lieberman returns to the Democratic fold it will be a newsworthy event.

The surge has given Iraq hope again

From our UK edition

The remarkable military success of the US surge in Iraq has been the most important international story of the year. As Tim Hames writes this morning, the prospects for Iraq look brighter than they have for a long time. “First, the country will now have the time to establish itself. A year ago it seemed as if American forces would have been withdrawn in ignominious fashion either well before the end of the Bush Administration or, at best, days after the next president came to office. This will not now happen. The self-evident success of the surge has obliged the Democrats to start talking about almost anything else and the calls to cut and run have abated.

Tories hit 45%

From our UK edition

Today’s YouGov poll showing the Tories reaching 45% will send the party into the holidays in high spirits. If they can sustain this rating into the New Year, they’ll vastly increase the chances that Labour will turn in on itself. Gordon Brown, whose approval rating is now -26 compared to +48 in August, will come under even more pressure if things do not improve in the near future. Two numbers from the poll should particularly cheer the Tories. David Cameron and George Osborne now have a 7 point lead over Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling on who would do more for your family’s standard of living. While 77% think that a lot of the money pumped into public services in the last ten years has been wasted.

Bill Clinton takes the gloves off

From our UK edition

With Barack Obama becoming a more serious threat to Hillary Clinton’s presidential ambitions by the day, Bill Clinton has taken on the role of a silver-tongued attack dog. In a TV interview last night, he went after Obama hard on the experience front. Take this quote attacking Obama's lack of national political experience which show just how panicked the Clinton camp is. "In theory, we could find someone who is a gifted television commentators and let them run. They'd have only one year less experience in national politics..." The Clintons know that the holiday season will pause the narrative of the campaign, so they are desperate to put a dent in the Obama surge before Christmas.

Gordon turned up late on purpose

From our UK edition

Gordon Brown’s decision to turn up in Lisbon yesterday to sign the new EU treaty but only as the other leaders were leaving left him looking more like Mr. Bean than ever. It was typical of how Brown doesn’t quite get triangulation. The excuse the Brownites trotted out was that he had already agreed to talk to the Commons Liaison Committee on Thursday morning and so couldn’t be in two places at once. But as James Kirkup points out over at Three Line whip the timing for this doesn’t add up. Brown claims he agreed to his date with the Liaison Committee on the 5th but the Portuguese had informed the rest of the EU of the date of the signing ceremony back in October.

Nick Robinson is not happy

From our UK edition

Nick Robinson has an interesting post up about how the Home Office spun him about the number of illegal immigrants who had been allowed to become security guards. Robinson was given the steer that it was likely to be about 5,000 and in the worst case scenario around 8,000. The actual number? 11,000.

The scars of the Manse

From our UK edition

Tom Bower’s column in The Guardian today about how Gordon’s upbringing as a ‘son of the Manse’ might be responsible for his current political difficulties is well worth reading. What stuck out to me, was this: "Gordon Brown's Scottish friends believe that his father demanded confessions of wrongdoing from his three sons, and that Gordon Brown became an expert in denying his sins. On arriving at Edinburgh University, Brown described himself as an atheist.” Normally, I'm slightly sceptical about psycho-analysing politicians like this. But the emphasis that Brown puts on being a ‘son of the Manse’ and how his father gave him his moral compass makes this subject too important to ignore.

Changed dynamics

From our UK edition

In every Democratic presidential debate up to now, Barack Obama has seemed rather intimidated by Hillary Clinton. In her presence, he has backed off from real criticism of her. But this moment from yesterday’s debate, the last before the Iowa caucuses, shows just how much more confident Obama is now. With one of Clinton New Hampshire co-chairs having to step down for raising questions about whether Obama had ever dealt drugs and talk of a planned coup by Bill’s advisors, it is the Clinton campaign that has all the problems right now. Considering how the holidays will pause the campaign, the Clintons don’t have long to turn it around.

Contradictory Gordon

From our UK edition

This morning, Gordon Brown told the Commons liaison committee: "You cannot make decisions and assume that people will simply follow them. Most decisions can only be successful if people are part of the process."After that, he jetted off to sign the Treaty formerly known as the European constitution having denied people the role in the process that the Labour manifesto had promised them.

The shameful state of social mobility in Britain

From our UK edition

Today’s report from the Sutton Trust on social mobility in Britain makes for depressing reading. Their tracking of the Millennium cohort of children suggests that by the age of seven, even the least able children from rich households have drawn level with the very smartest children from the poorest fifth of households. Social mobility has, shockingly, remained static for 30 years. This lack of social mobility in Britain will not be reversed while the current situation where only 10 percent of people from the poorest fifth of households get a degree compared to 44 percent from the richest twenty percent of homes persists. Making Britain a more a meritocratic place should be a priority for both parties.

A local government classic

From our UK edition

Residents of the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea received this message from their local council this morning, which begins:  “Dear Resident(s),  Recycling and Refuse Collections Days are changing in the Royal Borough  I am writing to let you know that the days of refuse and recycling collections in the Royal Borough are changing. As from Monday 7 January 2008, most resident’s recycling and refuse will be collected on:  Monday and Thursday  OR  Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. As they say, you couldn’t make it up.