James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Saturday

James Forsyth

McCain rallies his band of brothers

From our UK edition

After the Obama rally, I headed up to Peterborough for a John McCain town hall. The population of the town is 6,000 yet McCain had 600 at his event with the police blocking more people from entering. It is awesome, in the proper sense of the word, how seriously New Hampshire primary voters take their first in the nation role. Talking to them afterwards, one couldn’t help but be struck by their knowledge of the candidates’ records and the sheer number of events they’d been to. Interestingly, a couple of people I spoke to had previously been for Bill Richardson, the Democrat who came fourth in Iowa, but were now moving over to McCain as they don’t think Richardson can win. As McCain exited the building, lots of people approached McCain to shake his hands.

James Forsyth

Obama has the wind at his back

From our UK edition

Nashua, New Hampshire There’s little doubt that Obama is the candidate with the big ‘mo. Half an hour before his event was due to start here at Nashua North High School there was a mile and a half long queue of cars trying to get into the car park. The event eventually started an hour late once the campaign had set up an overflow room. There must have been at least a couple of thousand people there and encouragingly for Obama at least a quarter of them were undecided voters. If you’re Hillary Clinton, or John McCain who is competing with Obama for the votes of independents in the state, this has got to worry you.

James Forsyth

Hillary’s last best chance

From our UK edition

Tonight, both the Democrats and the Republicans debate here in New Hampshire. The Democratic debate represents Hillary Clinton’s best chance to push back against the surging Barack Obama. Hillary has little choice but to make her move tonight, with the primary on Tuesday she has to change the story fast. If Obama wins on Tuesday, he would become the overwhelming favourite to win the nomination.  There is, though, still no sign that the Clintons have come up with a compelling reason for voters to back Hillary. As The New York Times reports this morning, the campaign is still searching for a rationale for her candidacy that goes beyond inevitability and electability.

Friday

James Forsyth

<p><strong>The shape of the Republican race</strong></p>

From our UK edition

Manchester, New Hampshire Mark Halperin over at The Page poses perhaps the most important question about the Republican race post-Iowa, “Do Huckabee and Giuliani rely on Romney to stop McCain (or do they realize that that might be a huge mistake?)?” Up until this point, all the Republican candidates had an interest in taking Romney down a peg or two. Huckabee needed to weaken him to win Iowa, Romney was—and is—McCain’s main competitor in New Hampshire and Giuliani feared a Romney sweep of the early states that could have derailed his Florida and February 5th strategy. But now the calculus has changed.

James Forsyth

<strong>On to New Hampshire</strong>

From our UK edition

The US  papers are stuffed with analysis of last night’s result. Of the stuff that I’ve seen waiting for my flight to New Hampshire, two pieces are absolute must reads:  David Brooks on two ‘political earthquakes’ in The New York Times and EJ Dionne in The Washington Post on what the caucuses suggest about the shape of this fall’s presidential election. Also do check out Mark Halperin’s typically smart take on what we know now and what we are about to find out.

James Forsyth

Is there a way for Hillary to recover from this defeat?

From our UK edition

To understand how deep a hole Hillary Clinton is in following Barack Obama’s crushing victory in the Iowa caucuses, think what you would advise her to do. Going negative on Obama would likely rebound on the Clintons: the Democratic primary electorate do not want to see the first serious black contender for the White House kneecapped. They have no policy trump card to play—the argument about the differences between the health plans of the two candidates is too wonky to really resonate. While the electability argument went up in smoke last night as independents flooded into the Democratic caucuses to support Obama. Just to compound Hillary’s difficulties, John Edwards is aggressively attacking her at every opportunity.

James Forsyth

Where now for the Republicans?

From our UK edition

After Iowa, the Republican race remains remarkably fluid. Indeed, it is hard to identify anyone as the frontrunner. The result was clearly awful for Mitt Romney but Rudy Giuliani was also embarrassed, he only got 4% support comfortably behind Ron Paul, a candidate who Rudy has derided as a bit of a crank, who is at 10% with 95% of precincts reporting. Giuliani’s poor performance here illustrates just how hard it will be for him with his socially liberal, pro-choice positions and operatic private life to appeal to hard core social conservatives.

James Forsyth

How Obama triumphed

From our UK edition

Last night I headed to a caucus in Johnston, a suburb of Des Moines, and how Obama triumphed there was an extreme example of how he won Iowa. In 2004, 90 people attended the Democratic Caucus in this precinct: this time, 795 turned up. Overall, caucus turnout hit a record high on the Democratic side with more than 225,000 participating compared to 124,000 in 2004 The line of Republicans, independents and first time attendees registering as Democrats so that they could take part was out the door and my non-scientific observations suggested that the vast majority of them caucused for Obama.  He got the support of 316 caucus-goers in the first round compared to Hillary’s 181 and 145 for Edwards.

James Forsyth

Obama is now the most likely Democratic nominee

From our UK edition

Barack Obama must now be regarded as the favourite to win the Democratic nomination. He has absolutely thumped Hillary Clinton in Iowa, 38% to 29% with 99% of precincts reporting. Barring an unforeseen event, one has to assume that the momentum from this win will carry him to victory in New Hampshire five days from now. If Hillary finds herself 0 for 2 heading to South Carolina with Obama having proved to black voters that he can win in heavily white states then she is in real trouble. Another bonus for Obama is that the way he won tonight--bringing in independents, disillusioned Republicans and first time voters—bolsters his message that he is the candidate who can bring America together.

James Forsyth

Both Republicans and Democrats voted for change

From our UK edition

Huckabee’s victory rally was buzzing; his supporters were revelling in having upset the apple cart. The most noticeable feature of Huckabee’s speech was how was how much of what he said could have been said by Obama.  He talked about change and creating an America where people were more proud to be American than Democratic or Republican, all themes that Obama has been emphasising in his campaign. It seems that Huckabee is going to try and expand his support in New Hampshire, which votes on Tuesday and doesn’t have a large evangelical population, by casting himself as the Republican change agent. He didn’t mention President Bush once and declared that “A new day is needed in American politics just as a new day is needed in American government.

James Forsyth

Is it all over for Romney?

From our UK edition

 Mitt Romney has just been humiliated here in Iowa. With only 15% of precincts reporting, the news channels called it for Huckabee. So, Romney despite outspending Huckabee by about 20 to 1, spending far more time in Iowa than any other candidate and re-branding himself politically has still being handily beaten—with 72% of the results in Huckabee is up 34-25.   It is very hard to see how Romney now holds off a surging McCain in New Hampshire and if he loses both early states it is all over for Romney.

Thursday

James Forsyth

Who will drop out after tonight?

From our UK edition

As we wait for the caucuses to get under way, the press are wondering who will leave the field after tonight’s results. This morning, The Politico reported that Senator turned actor Fred Thompson will drop out and endorse John McCain if he doesn’t finish third tonight. (The Thompson campaign has denied the report but Thompson was clear on TV this morning that he won’t stay in for the sake of it.)  On the Democrat side,Chris Dodd, a Senate veteran, has said he’s throwing in the towel if he doesn’t come in fourth.

James Forsyth

Obama wheels and deals

From our UK edition

One of the many quirks of the Democrat’s Iowa Caucus is that if your candidate gets less than 15% support, you can choose to shift your support to another candidate. The conventional wisdom is that this isn’t good for Hillary who is effectively the incumbent in this race and so Edwards and Obama are expected to pick up the lion’s share of these second preferences. The buzz today is that Obama has reached a deal with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson so that where Richardson, who polls in the high single digits, that where Richardson has less than 15% support his precinct captains will urge his supporters to back Obama. In exchange, Obama will lend any spare votes to Richardson—who needs to come fourth if his presidential bid is to credibly continue.

James Forsyth

What does Hillary do if she loses to Obama?

From our UK edition

It looks increasingly like Hillary’s nightmare Iowa scenario is about to become true. So, the question is how does she come back? The brutal truth is that there is no easy solution to her troubles. In recent weeks, she has tried to showcase the softer side of her personality—something that her campaign should have done at the beginning. The problem with this approach is that it isn’t newsworthy and that it is unlikely to be a game-changer. But the alternative—attacking Obama—could be disastrous. Indeed, a lot of Hillary’s current problems stem from a feeling that she was too keen to take down Obama.  Another thing she will have to contend with is an avalanche of positive Obama coverage if he triumphs.

James Forsyth

Is Brown finished?

From our UK edition

“I think Brown’s character, specifically the lack of charisma or warmth will prevent him being able to bring it back. When problems hit Brown will never be able get away with a winning smile and a “I’m a pretty straight sort of guy” or “well, John is John”, he can’t charm he was out of problems, can’t convince people that, whatever has gone wrong, he is fundamentally a decent chap doing his best. Neither has he yet shown any ability to project a vision or purpose for his government that the public can relate to, perhaps in other circumstances that wouldn’t matter, competence would be enough, but to differentiate himself from Blair he needs to.

James Forsyth

Caucus day

From our UK edition

One of the odd things about the Iowa caucuses is that because they do not start until 6:30PM there are no early indications on turnout or anything else. But we can read the tea-leaves.  Judging from the mood of the various campaigns, it is the Obama and Huckabee campaigns who are most confident. Obama and Huckabee are the candidates who are up in this morning’s tracking poll and any Iowan deciding who to support based on this morning’s press coverage in the local press would probably shift their way. The weather is cold but crucially there’s been no fresh fall of snow so the weather is unlikely to deter many people from attending which is good news for Obama, Clinton and Huckabee who all need more people than usual to turn out.

James Forsyth

Is the force with Obama?

From our UK edition

The difference in enthusiasm and size of crowds between the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney rallies was stark.  Obama was clearly exhausted at his eve of caucus rally in Des Moines, is voice was hoarse and many of his best lines were barely audible but still his crowd was far larger and more enthusiastic than Romney’s. Those who have been covering the campaign out here for months say that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in a state that George W. Bush carried in 2004 is remarkable. Even the non-front-running Democrats regularly draw bigger crowds than the leading Republicans.  Obama’s delivery tonight was not exceptional but the 2,100 crowd at a localDes Moines high school was enthusiastic and was determined to pull him through.

James Forsyth

Romney’s last rally feels flat

From our UK edition

Mitt Romney’s final event before the Iowa caucus was surprisingly downbeat affair. The crowd was not huge—about 625 to 650 people according to the Romney camp—and Romney was in reflective rather than rousing mood peppering his speech with phrases such as “I don’t know what happens to us down the road” and “we’re going to make a real effort.” In short, you didn’t leave the rally thinking that you’d just seen a man who expects to win on Thursday.  Romney’s speech was designed to hit the sweet spots of Iowa Republicans. Romney extolled patriotic values, talked about being “swamped by illegal immigration” and bashed  Washington while paying tribute to George W.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The Ron Paul phenomenon

From our UK edition

Tonight, I’m planning to go and see Mitt Romney and Barack Obama’s big pre-caucus rallies but before that I’m going to pop in on a Ron Paul event.  Paul is running for the Republican nomination as an anti-war, libertarian. He has garnered an unbelievably devoted following and has been raising money hand over fist--$20 million in the last quarter alone which is almost certainly more than any other Republican. Paul won’t win the nomination but there’s a very good chance that he could beat some of the big name candidates both here and in New Hampshire. Disgracefully there are moves afoot to keep him out of one of the TV debates in New Hampshire; if Paul is excluded it will be an outrage.

James Forsyth

The key to victory in Iowa

From our UK edition

Des Moines, Iowa Quite remarkably on the eve of the Iowa caucuses both the Democratic and Republican races are far too close to call. The determining factor on both sides will be turnout.  Obama is hoping to bring independents, disgruntled Republicans and first time caucus goers into the process and if he can succeed in doing this he’ll win: high turnout equates to an Obama victory. Many have questioned the wisdom of this strategy, arguing that expanding the universe of caucus goers is what Howard Dean tried and failed to do. But one very senior Republican told me today that he thinks Obama can pull it off, noting how professional his Iowa field organisation is.  Hillary will likely win if turnout is middling, in the Des Moines Register poll she leads among Democrats.