James Forsyth

Labour’s campaign in Crewe is, rightly being, lambasted. It is depressing that after 11 years in power, Labour can’t give voters a positive reason to vote for the party and have instead had to revert to the tired rhetoric of class prejudice. But what we shouldn’t overlook is how the issue is exacerbating the split within the Number 10 staff. Stephen Carter, the strategist Brown hired to try and re-launch his premiership, is dead against the Crewe approach. The Mail on Sunday reports that he now plans to bring Oona King in as political secretary, in large part, because she shares his belief that these kind of attacks are ineffectual.  The anonymous briefings against King have already started.

Yesterday, we asked what the Conservatives would promise to do in their first term. Today, Michael Gove goes a long way to answering that question in a typically smart column in the Telegraph. Acknowledging that, realistically, governments have to choose an area to prioritise, Gove sets out what the Conservatives will seek to achieve: "the areas where a Conservative government will act first, and fast, to make a difference are improving education, reforming our welfare system and providing practical support to families.” The theme—unblocking opportunity—that Gove is proposing for the Conservatives is politically potent and the most effective way to defuse the class issue that Labour, in its desperation, is so keen to play up.

Martin Bright and Jackie Ashley are two of the most astute and influential commentators on the left. So I was particularly struck by how bearish about Brown’s prospects they both are; it is a sign of the times that the fact that Ashley does not totally rule out the possibility that Brown might recover is considered news.    .Here’s how Bright ends his typically excellent politics column in this week’s New Statesman: “in the present atmosphere of seemingly terminal pessimism, many MPs on the government benches would happily take the Wilson outcome: four years in opposition followed by a Labour return to power has to be better than the 18 years in the wilderness after Callaghan's defeat.

The memoirs of Cherie Blair, Lord Levy and John Prescott have all made this week even more difficult for Gordon Brown than it otherwise would have been. But I suspect that none of these books will survive the test of time. Alistair Campbell’s diaries might once the full version comes out but I suspect that the really great memoir of the Blair era will be Peter Mandelson’s. Mandelson was at the heart of events throughout and his shift from Brown to Blair can be seen as the moment when it became clear that the power that relationship had shifted. Those who think that it would be a hagiography of Blair should bear in mind his criticisms of Blair over Northern Ireland.

David Cameron’s joke-filled appearance before the Commons press gallery is getting pretty good write ups. Boulton and Co highlights one joke that I rather imagine would go down as well with certain members of the Cabinet as it did with the hacks:  "Ed Balls is the man with the most appropriate surname since Trevor Crapper invented the lavatory." This might be Punch and Judy politics but it does serve the Tories' tactical purposes. First, gags like this help keep Tory morale high. Second, Balls tends to rise to the bait—he did so with disastrous effect during Cameron’s response to the Budget.

Ken’s article in The Guardian last week, emphasising how Labour had done better in London than the rest of the country, strongly suggests that he is not done with public life yet. Earlier today, someone with an insight into his thinking suggested a route for Ken back into electoral politics. The theory goes that Lee Jasper is acting as a stalking horse for Ken in Vauxhall and that if Kate Hoey is de-selected for taking a role in the Johnson administration and flirting heavily with supporting him before the election Ken would then step in to this very safe seat. In the meantime, Ken will use his forthcoming book to vigorously defend his record and make some strong criticisms of Gordon Brown over the PPP for the Tube.

Just after Christmas, Stephen Byers declared Tony Blair to be history and that Labour needed to unite behind Gordon Brown if it was to win the next election. Byers was asking that the policy ideas that he and fellow Blairites put forward be seen not as mere mischief-making but as genuine contributions to the debate.  One suspects, though, that Brown sees Byers’ article in The Sunday Times as the former rather than the later. This is Brown’s loss as the reforms that Byers is proposing to the tax system—raising the personal allowance to take more people out of tax, hypothecating more and coordinating the tax and benefits systems to lower the effective marginal rate of tax—are both good policy and good politics.

Reading through the Cherie interviews in the papers today I was struck by this part of her reply when she was asked if she took any pleasure in Brown’s difficulties: “I would be delighted to campaign for them.” One of the key strategic decisions that Brown will have to take about the general election campaign is how the Labour party uses the Blairs. The Cabinet has very few big beats and there’s no doubt that out on the stump, Tony Blair could drive the news agenda in a way that none of the current cabinet could. But equally, sending Blair out there would remind people both of just how long Labour have been in power and of all the old Blair / Brown splits.