James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Friday

James Forsyth

Is the worst over for Brown?

From our UK edition

There is a little glimmer of hope this afternoon for Gordon Brown: the Politics Home 5,000 Panel reports that Brown’s ratings are no longer falling. The bad news is that they have bottomed out with 77 percent of voters disapproving of the job Brown is doing. If the Prime Minister’s mood is improved by this news then he shouldn’t read Ben Brogan’s blog which warns of trouble ahead for Brown from a possible Scottish by-election. A defeat in his own backyard would be another personal humiliation for Brown.

James Forsyth

New poll suggests the Irish might vote No on the EU Reform Treaty

From our UK edition

Over at Centre Right, Tim Montgomerie flags up a new poll that shows the No campaign leading in Ireland in advance of next week’s vote on the Lisbon Treaty. The No side, in a dramatic reversal, is now five points up over the Yes camp but with many voters still undecided. A defeat for the treaty formerly known as the Constitution in Ireland would, at the least, throw Brussels into confusion. It would also push this issue back up the agenda in Britain reminding voters of how they were denied the referendum they had been promised, giving Gordon Brown yet another problem to deal with.

James Forsyth

Blair highlights Brown’s weaknesses

From our UK edition

Tony Blair’s return to the GMTV sofa and Parliament yesterday showed up Gordon Brown’s communications deficiencies. Blair spoke in fluent human, defused tensions with the odd joke and was relaxed in his command of the detail. In short, it was a reminder of why Blair was such a formidable politician and helped explain why Brown is struggling so badly.. Ann Treneman sums it up nicely in The Times: The tan, the wry asides, the puppet hand gestures, the fluent grasp of detail, the excuses about Cherie. It all seemed so familiar and looked so utterly effortless. Poor Gordon. How he must wish that the Ghost of Blair would haunt someone else.

Thursday

James Forsyth

Now the Blairites want to be the heirs to Cameron’s ideas

From our UK edition

A friend of Coffee House passes on an email from Progress which announces a series of seminars “which will ask whether progressives need to revisit their conception of the role of the state in the light of the political challenge presented by David Cameron's espousal of a post-bureaucratic state.” It is interesting enough that a Labour group is now holding seminars on the Tory’s ideas. But who is speaking at these meetings is absolutely fascinating, it reads like a who’s who of Blairism. John Hutton, Hazel Blears, James Purnell and Tessa Jowell—the remaining Blairite cabinet ministers—are each introducing a session. Others involved include Alan Milburn, Tony Giddens and Matthew Taylor.

James Forsyth

Which senior cabinet minister thinks he’s been over-promoted?

From our UK edition

Adam Boulton has a great little scoop over at his blog, one senior member of the cabinet has been telling colleagues that he has been over promoted but that he intends "to enjoy it while it lasts". Now, it is a man which rules out Jacqui Smith, Harriet Harman, Yvette Cooper, Ruth Kelly and Hazel Blears. It is unlikely to be Jack Straw or Geoff Hoon who have previously held higher office than their current rank. That it is a senior cabinet minister seems to rule out Douglas Alexander, Andy Burnham, Ed Miliband, Shaun Woodward and Paul Murphy. Several others are unlikely to be self-aware enough to make such a comment. So, who could it be?

James Forsyth

Gordon ties himself to the mast on vehicle excise duty

From our UK edition

Sam Coates points out over at Red Box that Gordon Brown boxed himself in on vehicle excise duty at PMQs yesterday by telling those questioning the move that: “Don't you know these reforms are going to save 1.3 million tonnes of CO2 and increase the number of clean cars”. Sam thinks that Gordon let his irritation at John Hutton and Jack Straw’s freelancing on this issue, both have suggested that the rise might be revisited, get the better of him. Now, what’s interesting here is that Downing Street appears to be convinced that Straw is on manoeuvres, readying himself for the role of caretaker PM if Brown is knifed. It will be well worth keeping an eye on the Straw-Brown relationship in the coming month.

James Forsyth

It might not be right for Dannatt to go public, but he is right

From our UK edition

One can question the propriety of General Sir Richard Dannatt speaking out about serviceman’s pay in The Sun but it is hard to disagree with him. "You look to see how much a traffic warden is paid and compare that against what a private soldier gets paid. “If you compare a police constable on overtime, I think you will find that an individual serviceman gets quite a lot less.” A soldier’s starting salary is £12,572 a year, rising to £15,677 as a Level 1 private. A traffic warden’s basic pay is £17,000. Dannatt is also right that Britain urgently needs to spend more on the military. If we wish to remain a frontline nation, then we are going to have to significantly increase the defence budget.

James Forsyth

Hillary bows to the inevitable

From our UK edition

"Senator Clinton will be hosting an event in Washington, DC to thank her supporters and express her support for Senator Obama and party unity.  This event will be held on Saturday to accommodate more of Senator Clinton's supporters who want to attend." This terse statement from the Clinton campaign indicates that the Clintons have accepted what became crystal clear on Tuesday night: the Democratic primary race is finally over. I doubt that I’ll see in my lifetime another campaign that twists and turns as much as this one did. That it went on so long is reflective of both the strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates. Hillary’s tenacity, her ability to keep going was quite remarkable.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Will Labour’s expectations management spin be right again?

From our UK edition

Over at Red Box, Sam Coates reports that Labour is already lowering expectations for its performance in Henley, briefing that it will lose its deposit. Now, I’d be tempted to dismiss this as just spin seeing as Labour got 14.7 percent at Henley in the general but Labour’s expectations management predictions have turned out to be rather more accurate than they would have liked recently.

James Forsyth

A ticket to defeat

From our UK edition

Picking Hillary Clinton as his VP would be fatal to Obama’s chances. It is hard to imagine a move that could cause him more damage. First, it would make him look weak—as if Hillary had forced him into making a concession to her. Secondly, it would undercut his message that his candidacy represents change and the future. If this wasn’t enough, it would also motivate the Republican base like nothing else. NBC are reporting that Hillary does want to be his running mate. (Personally, I expect she must just be running through the gamut of emotions and we won’t know what she really thinks for at least 24 hours or so). But Obama should offer her whatever it takes, within reason, to get her to drop the idea.

James Forsyth

What now for Obama and McCain?

From our UK edition

If John McCain or his supporters had any doubts about the challenges ahead, they should have been removed last night. Obama once more demonstrated that he can hit the rhetorical heights at will, turn out a crowd whenever he needs and pose as a unifying figure, hovering above normal politics even while taking partisan jabs at his opponent. By contrast, McCain’s speech appeared defensive and uninspiring. Obama might have rather limped across the finished line - he has been consistently out-campaigned and out-performed by Hillary Clinton since the end of his February hot streak - but he will be a formidable general election opponent. The aircraft hangar campaigning of the fall campaign will play to Obama’s greatest strength, his set piece speaking skills.

James Forsyth

What are the odds?

From our UK edition

Apologies for the confusion folks, but William Hill has sent over the actual odds for ministers to lose their seat. (What we had before was rather mangled thanks to a misunderstanding between me and them). Here are the numbers and, again, apologies.

James Forsyth

Obama: I will be the nominee

From our UK edition

Hillary Clinton might not have conceded last night but Barack Obama now has the delegates he needs to be the nominee. He declared himself the nominee last night despite Hillary Clinton’s refusal to drop out. His immediate challenge is to usher her off the stage and re-unite the party. He started that task with generous praise for her last night and a speech that hit the Democratic high notes.

James Forsyth

Obama will have enough delegates to formally claim the nomination once the Montana and South Dakota results come in

From our UK edition

NBC's delegate count shows that following the flurry of super delegate declarations for him today, Obama is only 11 away from having an absolute majority of delegates. Considering that there are 31 up for grabs in Montana and South Dakota, Obama is pretty much certain to reach that mark before the end of the night.  According to the prepared remarks that have leaked to Drudge, Obama will declare himself the nominee this evening. He will, though, sweeten the pill for Hillary and her supporters with effusive praise for the Clintons.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

The odds on ministers losing their seats

From our UK edition

If you fancy a punt on various cabinet ministers losing their seats here are the odds from William Hill and, where relevant, the swing required for the Tories to take it: RUTH KELLY    BOLTON WEST    86 (4.9%)    7/4  JOHN HUTTON    BARROW AND FURNESS    115 (6.25%)    2/1   JACQUI SMITH    REDDITCH    41 (2.3%)    5/2                 ALISTAIR DARLING    EDINBURGH AND SOUTH WEST    161 (8.25%)    14/1 JACK STRAW    BLACKBURN    178 (9.

James Forsyth

And now the end is near | 3 June 2008

From our UK edition

As the final votes are cast in the Democratic primaries, Americano reflects on when the race tipped in Barack Obama’s favour and looks at the proposed five-step plan for how Hillary can restore her reputation among Democratic activists. Plus, video of how this whole process has driven a Clinton campaign chair to drink.

James Forsyth

No unadulterated good news for Gordon anymore

From our UK edition

Gordon Brown should be breathing a large sigh of relief over the fact that Jacqui Smith has apparently won over enough Labour backbenchers to stave off defeat. But it seems that Brown has reached that stage where all good news for him is qualified. Smith’s impressive performance has led to Nick Robinson tipping her as a contender “to succeed Gordon after he stands down or maybe after he's pushed.” So, even though Brown looks like avoiding the massive blow to his authority that would come from a Parliamentary defeat he still finds his position being undermined, albeit more subtly, by the chatter about who will be the next Labour leader.

James Forsyth

The best case for 42 days

From our UK edition

The piece by Peter Clarke, the former head of the Met’s anti-terror command, arguing for 42 days detention in the Telegraph today is essential reading. As I said the other day, I’m still undecided on the issue but Clarke makes the most persuasive case for it I’ve seen. Here is Clarke’s crucial point: “When I was asked, in 2005, by the home affairs select committee how many terrorists I had been obliged to let go through lack of time to investigate, I inwardly despaired. It was the wrong question. We should look forward, not back. The fact that we have been able to convict more than 60 terrorists in the last year or so is irrelevant.

James Forsyth

The Brown question

From our UK edition

Gordon Brown timed the Crewe and Nantwich by-election so that MPs would be heading out for the recess as the result came in. With Labour MPs scattered to the four winds, leadership plotting failed to get off the ground. This and the Labour party seeming to row in behind the government on 42 days do not mean that Brown is out of the woods, though. As Rachel Sylvester notes this morning, “Labour MPs will no longer give Mr Brown the benefit of the doubt. The next crisis (a funding scandal, another U-turn, a ministerial resignation) could be fatal.”  It is revealing how frank various cabinet ministers are prepared to be about the Prime Minister’s failings.

Monday

James Forsyth

Andrew Grice: 42 days rebellion fading

From our UK edition

The Independent’s Andrew Grice reports that Jacqui Smith’s performance at the Parliamentary Labour Party meeting was well received. It appears that the rebellion is diminishing rather than meta-sizing. Smith was frank about the consequences of losing the vote next Wednesday: "We have gone a million miles. Meet us on the way. Make no mistake. Defeat will have a political message." Ever since the local elections, Tories have been saying that they expected Labour to rally to Brown on this measure and it seems that this might be beginning to happen. The PLP is not yet prepared to deal the kind of blow that defeat would entail to the Prime Minister.