James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
From our UK edition
A Tory source has just explained to me what Davis is up to. He wants to stand down, force a by-election, then run a campaign on 42 days and declare that ‘the people have spoken’. Why? Well, one reason being put about is that he wants leverage in the internal debate over whether or not the Tories should commit to repeal 42 days. This is high-risk stuff. Then again, Davis is not averse to risk - as the Alan Clarke diaries show.
From our UK edition
42 days is, an understandably, emotive issue. People who are normally ideological comrades found themselves disagreeing over this issue. It scrambled divides of left and right and even dove and hawk. The vote looks like it split down party lines, but in reality there were many MPs who voted against their better judgement tonight out of loyalty to their party. The result and the voting patterns would have been very different if this had been a free vote. Regardless of where one stands on 42 days one has to salute Tim Montgomerie and Sam Coates for their editorial this morning, They said what they believed in the full knowledge that it would not endear them to many of their readers.
From our UK edition
There was talk earlier this morning that Diane Abbott was one of those MPs who had been coaxed back to the government side. That seems to have been spectacularly wide of the mark. She just made a bravura speech against 42 days. Abbott’s peroration will have stung Gordon Brown particularly hard "Any rebel backbencher with a cause knows, if they vote the right way, that the prime minister will make a statement, give them money, make a special visit. Is it truly right that our civil liberties should be traded in this sort of bazaar?" Hat Tip: Andrew Sparrow.
From our UK edition
There will be no profiles in courage written about those people who were happy to be part of a government that was pushing aggressively for 90 days but--now that they are out of power—like to boast about their opposition to 42 days. Paul Waugh, whose blog is rapidly becoming an essential read, reports on how one of these cowardly converts found himself rejected by those he imagined would be his new friends: A witness reports that as [Charles Clarke] appeared on the Commons terrace yesterday, Clarke was loudly denouncing the anti-terror proposals as one of the most badly drafted pieces of legislation by any Government. Unfortunately serial Labour rebel Lynne Jones couldn't bear it.
From our UK edition
That Gordon Brown can buy off potential Labour rebels by proposing a softer line on Cuba illustrates just how much of a special place the Castro despotism still has in the heart of some Labour MPs. These people are just like those on the reactionary right who used to cheerlead for apartheid South Africa. They are blinded to the hideous nature of the regime they’re supporting by the fact that’s its enemy is their enemy. It is supremely ironic that these MPs have to be bought off to support 42 days detention. In their favourite hereditary-run despotism, the authorities lock people up indefinitely whenever they feel like it. Some say we shouldn’t worry about this, it is only a few old Labour dinosaurs who think like this.
From our UK edition
Over at his invaluable blog, Ben Brogan reports that: The DUP are on board, Diane Abbott has been spoken to by Gordon Brown for the first time in 20 years, cash for sick miners and help for Cuba has been whistled out of nowhere, and so the vote is won. I spoke to David Davis earlier, who knows a thing or two about whipping and numbers. The 54 Labour rebels he knew about on Friday were down to 44 last night, and the DUP will support Mr Brown. At that rate the game is up.
From our UK edition
Over on Americano, a guide to the pros and cons of the people that Obama’s VP search team are floating as possible running mates for him.
From our UK edition
Martin Bright, whose Dispatches programme on Ken Livingstone moved a lot of the allegations against him to the forefront of the mayoral debate, reports that Ken is not done yet and plans to be the Labour candidate in 2012. Presumably, Livingstone’s thinking is that Boris will find it more difficult to get re-elected during the mid-term of a Tory government than elected during the mid-term of a Labour government. Yet judging from how things have gone so far, Boris is settling into the job rather well. Indeed, I suspect he’ll win re-election by a larger margin than he defeated Livingstone by.
From our UK edition
In his Irish Independent column today, Kevin Myers brilliantly nails one of the most infuriating pro-European arguments: The final argument from the 'Yes' camp is that the 'No' side really doesn't understand Lisbon. And, for once, they're right. So why should I say 'Yes' to a legal document I don't understand? My lawyer would never urge me to buy a house under such conditions. Why would we follow different rules when voting for the future of our country?
From our UK edition
Jon Craig highlights this finding from today’s Populus poll which should worry the Tories. However, to be fair we should note that even more voters think that Labour is compromised by it; suggesting that the voters have reached a Guido-esque state on all this.
From our UK edition
A new Populus poll for The Times shows the Tories surging yet further ahead of Labour. The Tories are now on 45, Labour on 25 and the Lib Dems on 20. Since this poll last month, the Tories have gained five percent while Labour has dropped 4 and the Tory lead has gone from 11 to 20 points. As Anthony Wells points out at UK Polling Report, this means that two pollsters are now reporting 20 point leads for the Tories. In more good news for the party, the poll was carried out as several of these expenses stories were breaking—suggesting that they have done no immediate electoral damage. 25 is also the lowest rating that Labour has ever had in a Populus survey.
From our UK edition
Clive flags up a story in today's Evening Standard about how when Parliament debated knife crime last week, only 10 of the 74 London MPs bothered to turn up. Showing up might not be everything but without it. nothing can get done.
From our UK edition
Watching Michael Cockrell’s documentary on Margaret Thatcher’s rise to power last night, I was struck by how many times she was interviewed with her family. Just after her maiden speech she was interviewed on the family sofa with her son Mark, then 6, climbing all over her. As she was running for the Tory leadership, Carole and Mark—then 21—were interviewed for World in Action about how they felt about their mum’s political career. It all put David Cameron’s decision to allow ITN to film his family eating breakfast into perspective. My point is not that it makes Cameron’s actions any better or worse, but that it shows that he was just doing what politicians have traditionally felt they had to do to humanise themselves.
From our UK edition
Knife crime is a serious problem—those who claim that the current concern over it is all a result of media fear-mongering are being far too flippant. But I do wish the government would concentrate on using the tools already available to it rather than coming up with yet more eye catching initiatives. As Stephen wrote the other week only a handful of those convicted of knife offences are punished to the full extent of the law. Today, Charlotte Leslie, a Tory candidate down in Bristol, notes in her Guardian blog another way in which the scourge of knife crime could be tackled without any additional legislation: “When we got back to the station, he showed me a perfectly normal looking pair of leather gloves. "See these?" he said. They had a thin lining on the inside.
From our UK edition
Iain Martin moves the Cameron hair story along over at Three Line Whip. Iain suggest that we hacks might have been wrong to concentrate on the parting and should instead have been examining the absence of any grey hairs. Iain writes: 'Any use of hair dye was initially vigorously denied but when I asked again at a later date I was told not to be so silly and urged to focus instead on the serious issues – which in my book is politician’s code for ‘this is true, but a little embarrassing.’ Cameron would be far from the first politician to resort to the use of dye but you can expect plenty of chortling in Westminster over this news. And yes, I think we can declare the silly season started.
From our UK edition
Tonight’s Dispatches on Gordon Brown, which Pete blogged about on Sunday, has already generated a bunch of buzz. Reading the transcript, these two quotes jumped out at me as neither are meant to wound and are all the more telling for that: Andrew Rawnsley: Would you have done that pre budget report differently? Alistair Darling: Well errm if I knew now what I knew then well errm off course there would be something’s I would do different, I actually think the inheritance tax changes that I made do have some merit. Will Labour win the next election? Peter Hain: That’s a matter for the electorate, I think we’ve got a good chance of winning the next election I think we still could win under Gordon but we’ve got a long way to go.
From our UK edition
In The News of The World today, Ian Kirby reports that: “Last night, however, Mr Brown insisted all his Cabinet would stay in their jobs till the next General Election. He would change only junior ministers.” If this is accurate, then it is great news for the Tories. At the moment, the Tories have the stronger front bench but there is a decent amount of talent on the Labour back benches which could even things up. It also means that Labour’s most effective communicator—Alan Johnson—won’t be moved into more of a frontline role.
From our UK edition
The latest ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph has the Tories on 42, Labour 26 and the Lib Dems 21. Labour’s ranking is the lowest it has ever been in an ICM survey. What is really interesting about the poll is its findings on terrorism. 65 percent of the public back the government on 42 days, even two-thirds of Conservative supporters are in favour of the measure. Yet, still the public by 32 to 28 think that the Tories have the tougher policies to deal with terrorism. This suggests that the public, rightly, do not view 42 days as the be all and end all of counter-terrorism. The fieldwork for the poll was done on Wednesday and Thursday.
From our UK edition
Peter Oborne in The Mail today details the tensions between the government and the Bank of England. Oborne writes that, The truth is that relations between the Bank and Treasury are close to breaking point. They are easily the worst since the Sixties, when Harold Wilson fought a vicious and prolonged battle with the Bank of England over the level of sterling. Bank governor Mervyn King regards Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, with hostility and contempt. The feeling is reciprocated. Chancellor Darling - as ever, the hapless cipher of the Prime Minister - is working flat out to undermine the integrity and authority of the Bank.
From our UK edition
Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe is as dependent on South Africa as Ian Smith’s Rhodesia, and The LA Times editorial board has a good example of how South Africa could force Mugabe to back down if it wanted to: Mugabe is beyond hope, but it's worth attempting an international pressure campaign against his chief enabler, South African President Thabo Mbeki. “Zimbabwe is not a province of South Africa,” Mbeki famously answered those who have urged him to curb Mugabe's excesses. That's true. It's more like a protectorate of South Africa. South Africa supplies food, fuel, money, remittances and electricity to its neighbor. The electricity runs Zimbabwe's vital platinum mines, in which South African firms own a large interest.
