James Forsyth

The issue of prisoner votes has turned into a question of trust between David Cameron and his backbenchers. Most Tory MPs well remember that the Prime Minister’s initial intention was to comply with the Strasbourg court’s ruling; he only changed his mind after seeing how strong feelings were on the issue on the Tory benches and in the country. For this reason, Cameron needs to scotch all this talk of a draft bill on votes for at least some prisoners at PMQs today. If he doesn’t, he’ll have just as large a rebellion on his hands as he did last time. The issue will also drive a further wedge between Cameron and his backbenchers.

Charles Moore’s biography of Margaret Thatcher promises to be the most important British political book in decades. Tonight, we got a preview of it when Charles delivered the Centre for Policy Studies’ second Margaret Thatcher lecture. The subject was Thatcher and Europe. I won’t say too much about it because we’re running a version of it in the coming issue of The Spectator. But one thing that Charles demonstrated was that even when Thatcher was campaigning for British membership of the European Community, as then was, she was never in favour of the European project. One of the other thing that Charles’s lecture brought out was the shift in the balance of power in the Tory party on Europe.

Throughout his statement on the European Council, David Cameron seemed slightly irritated. One sensed that the headlines of the last few days have rather got under his skin. Cameron began by declaring that the Council meeting had made ‘limited progress’, which is hardly much to report to the House. He also was unable to resist another pop at Chris Bryant; complaining that he still hadn’t apologised to him when the Labour MPs asked a question. It was striking what a pro-European tone Ed Miliband took in his response to Cameron. It was all about how Cameron was losing control of his party over Europe and needed more friends there.

Theresa May’s political stock has risen this week. Announcing an intention to opt-out of EU law and order directives pleased Tory MPs while her decision not to extradite Gary McKinnon was popular. But we’ve also seen the Home Secretary operating -rarely for her - beyond her brief. She played a key role in pushing Andrew Mitchell out, something she effectively confirmed on the Sunday Politics. When Andrew Neil pressed her on this, she simply replied ‘I’m not going to talk about private conversations’.

Ed Miliband’s speech to the anti-cuts rally today was well-pitched. The lines about how any government would have to make cuts guaranteed him the jeers that he needed to show that he wasn’t pandering to his audience. What should worry the Tories, though, is not the generic anti-austerity and pro-NHS rhetoric but the direct pitch for small business support. One of the big changes since the 1980s is that those who run small and medium sized enterprises now view the banks as part of the problem not the solution. This provides a significant political opening for Miliband, and one he is intent on exploiting. It’s worth noting that he was in the Tory territory of Bedford yesterday speaking to small businesses that feel they have been done over by the banks.

Sir George Young’s appointment as chief whip is testament to both the respect David Cameron holds him in and the Prime Minister’s intense dislike of reshuffles. This is the second time that Cameron has asked Young to step in after a colleague has imploded, the first time was in 2009 when Alan Duncan was caught complaining about how MPs were ‘treated like shit’ and ‘forced to live on rations’. I suspect, though, that one thing that marked Young out this time was that his appointment would not require any other changes in the government ranks. Sir George is one of the politest people that you're ever likely to meet.

The Daily Telegraph is the paper that broke the expenses scandal and its splash tomorrow threatens to become the latest chapter in this sorry saga. Holly Watt reports that ‘at least eight MPs are either letting properties to, or renting from, another MP’. Now, it is worth stressing that this is not against the rules. One senior MP, who is not renting out his London residence to another MP or anyone else, argued passionately to me earlier that this is a product of badly drawn up rules. They allow MPs to claim for rent but not mortgage interest payments even if the later would be cheaper for the taxpayer. But what is certain is that parliamentary expenses will now be back under scrutiny and that, almost certainly, means more damage to the reputation of politics.

In normal circumstances, five Tory MPs questioning the chief whip's position at the 1922 Committee would send Tory high command into a panic. But tonight there is relief that only five MPs spoke out against Andrew Mitchell and that more than a dozen spoke in his support. I understand that Bernard Jenkin’s intervention was particularly effective, persuading at least one MP not to speak against Mitchell. Those present say that the mood of the room was largely in favour of the chief whip remaining in post. There’s a sense that while what he did was foolish, the issue has now been hijacked by the Police Federation and the media. Some who initially thought that he should quit now believe there’s simply no good outcome.

The West Coast Mainline debacle has given opponents of HS2 another stick with which to beat the government. Cheryl Gillan took the opportunity of Patrick McLoughlin’s statement on the matter to ask how anyone could trust the Department of Transport’s twenty year projections for HS2 when it got the ten year ones for the West Coast so wrong. Gillan, the former Welsh Secretary who has a Chilterns constituency, is now freed of the constraints of collective responsibility and is stepping up her campaign against HS2. She’s tabled 22 parliamentary questions on the matter and it’s quite clear that the tenacious Gillan isn’t going to let this go. The Prime Minister, though, needs no reminder of the strength of feeling that HS2 generates.

Grant Shapps, the perky new Tory chairman, has just been grilled on The Sunday Politics by Andrew Neil about the Tories’ majority strategy. In a sign of how tight the next election will be, Shapps stressed that you don’t actually need 326 seats to have a majority in the Commons because Sinn Fein don’t take their seats. He said he was able to "reveal" the Tories' 40/40 election strategy:  “We’re going to defend our [40] most marginal seats, and we’re going to go and attack the 40 seats that we will need to win. We’re going to focus and target on those seats in a way that we’ve never done before. Targetting is very, very important and it comes down to pavement politics,  winning it seat by seat.

Number 10 will be pleased with the press coverage this morning of David Cameron’s conference speech. It has received a good write-up in nearly every centre-right newspaper. Cameron will today return to normal Number 10 work, addressing how to commemorate the centenary of World War One. Over the next few months, it’ll be intriguing to see how he strikes the balance between his party duties and his Prime Ministerial ones. Since the reshuffle in September, Cameron has been more political and his conference speech brought together his governing strategy and political strategy. This conference speech has, in many ways, fired the gun on a two and a half year election campaign; we now know what pitch all three party leaders want to make to the electorate in 2015.