James Forsyth

Ten days before polling day in 2010, it was clear that a hung parliament was the most likely result of the election. But when interviewed by The Spectator at the time, David Cameron refused to discuss what parts of the Tory manifesto were up for discussion in any possible coalition. He said simply that ‘all the things in our manifesto are what we want to achieve’. When pressed, he rather irritably replied, ‘I am not going to go through the manifesto in that way. The manifesto is what we believe in, that’s what we want to achieve and that is what matters.’ Even the offer of a pen and a copy of the manifesto, so that he could underline his core commitments, didn’t tempt the Tory leader.

PMQs has settled into a pattern. Ed Miliband attacks David Cameron about the cost of living and David Cameron responds by attacking Ed Miliband about the economy. With economic growth returning, Miliband needs to make the political argument about the cost of living if he’s to win. But Cameron is trying to stop Miliband from changing the subject. So, today Cameron dismissed Miliband’s energy freeze as a ‘price con’ while trying to wrench the argument back to the economy. The result: no clear winner. listen to ‘PMQs: Cameron vs Miliband’ on Audioboo Interestingly, Cameron again emphasised that the best way to help people with the cost of living was to cut taxes. The Tories do seem to be limbering up for a classic, tax cut election offer.

The Tory talk of backing an increase (£) in the personal tax allowance to £12,500 serves several purposes. First, it makes it easier for the Tories to champion raising the rate to £10,000 and it gives them a tax cuts that’s aimed at low and middle income earners. But it also draws a neat dividing line with Labour, which is not keen on this policy, ahead of any future coalition negotiation. Indeed, I understand that thinkers close to Miliband have urged Nick Clegg to drop his attachment to raising the income tax threshold and instead think about using the money for a big universal childcare offer. Danny Alexander has already been out trying to retain Lib Dem ownership of this policy.

Royal Mail shares are currently trading at 421p, 91p above its 330p opening price. This morning, the shares hit 456p before falling back slightly. This increase of more than a third in value and the fact that the share offer was so oversubscribed has led to lots of claims this morning that Royal Mail was undervalued. But it is worth remembering that when the government announced it was going to privatise Royal Mail, there was lots of chatter about how the government would struggle to get it away. It was argued that it was foolhardy to sell it into a strike by postal workers. On its current price, the Royal Mail will enter the FTSE 100.

More than 140 of the 147 Tory MPs elected in 2010 have written to Adam Afriyie telling him to drop his amendment to the EU referendum bill. Given that Afriyie has previously suggested he’ll drop his attempt to bring the referendum forward to 2014 there is no support for it, it now seems doomed. This loyalist flexing of political muscle by the 2010 Tory intake will cheer Downing Street. It shows that the parliamentary party does, for the moment at least, want to stay united on Europe. It also indicates that a certain discipline is returning to Tory ranks as the next election approaches. Even six months ago, an amendment of this sort would have caused the leadership real trouble.

There are two more government resignations ahead of tonight’s reshuffle. John Randall, the deputy chief whip, has gone as has Chloe Smith, the Cabinet Office minister. Randall’s retirement has been overdue for a while now in the opinion of many in Downing Street. There is irritation at the way he put pressure on David Cameron to get rid of Andrew Mitchell during the plebgate affair. His departure and the expected elevation of several whips—Nicky Morgan and Karen Bradley are both in line for promotion—paves the way for a freshening up of the whips’ office. Chloe Smith quitting is going to tempt everyone to dust off the footage of that Paxman interview with her.

We’re about to find out what Tory MPs really think of John Bercow. Simon Burns, Bercow’s biggest Tory critic--and that’s says something, has resigned his ministerial post to run for deputy speaker. If he wins, the Speaker will be forced to work day in, day out with someone who, as Tim Shipman who broke the story points out, once called him a ‘stupid, sanctimonious dwarf’. David Cameron’s very warm letter accepting Burns’ resignation suggests that the Prime Minister is rather amused by the prospect. I also suspect that he’s grateful for Burns freeing up a ministerial post ahead of the reshuffle next week. The vote for deputy speaker is a free vote.

 Manchester   The Tory party has been at peace with itself this week. Eurosceptic backbenchers have given Nigel Farage a verbal kicking on the fringe, Cabinet ministers have stuck resolutely to the ‘hardworking’ conference script, and even Boris Johnson has behaved himself. Gay marriage, which so divided the leadership from the grassroots, has barely been mentioned, and you’d never know that just a month ago David Cameron lost a Commons vote on Syria. The new harmonious mood has come about in part because the leadership has moved towards the rest of the party. Tory conference was once decorated with poster extolling the benefits of ‘the big society’.

The Tory party has been at peace with itself this week. Eurosceptic backbenchers have given Nigel Farage a verbal kicking on the fringe, Cabinet ministers have stuck resolutely to the ‘hard- working’ conference script, and even Boris Johnson has behaved himself. Gay marriage, which so divided the leadership from the grassroots, has barely been mentioned, and you’d never know that just a month ago David Cameron lost a Commons vote on Syria. The new harmonious mood has come about in part because the leadership has moved towards the rest of the party. Tory conference was once decorated with posters extolling the benefits of ‘the big society’. Now, there is a simple Conservative message: ‘Welfare Capped: Immigration Down: Crime down’.

If the next Tory leadership election is a marathon, George Osborne fell down at mile six with that 2012 Budget. Most of those watching assumed that was the end of him. But Osborne got up, dusted himself down and started making his way back through the pack. Today’s speech showed that Osborne thinks he’s now back in that race. It was littered with the personal pronoun. It included a tribute to his parents who founded what Osborne called a small manufacturing company’ which the rest of us call Osborne and Little, the up-market wallpaper merchants beloved of the interior designing classes. It also showed off his acid sense of humour, there were a slew of jokes at the Miliband brothers’ expense.

When Steve Hilton left Downing Street he regarded his friend David Cameron’s premiership as a disappointment. As Matt d’Ancona reports, Hilton regarded Cameron as ‘reactive not transformative’. When he didn’t return at the end of his sabbatical, it was thought that was that. But for the last few days, Hilton has been back. When Cameron asked him to come and help on his conference speech, their old friendship kicked in and Hilton flew back from California. He was one of five people who hunkered down with Cameron at Chequers from Tuesday to Wednesday evening to work out how the Tory leader should respond to Miliband.

In Manchester this week, there’ll be much talk from the Tories about how they are gunning for a majority. But in private, many senior Tories will admit that being the largest party in another hung parliament is a more realistic aim. As Matthew d’Ancona reveals in the Telegraph this morning, there has been talk—albeit brief-- between the principals about a second coalition. Matt also reminds us how, if it had not been for Cameron’s intervention, a mansion tax would have been imposed by the coalition. I suspect that if there is to be another coalition, the Liberal Democrats would insist on some kind of mansion tax. It has come for them a proxy for wider questions about how much influence they would wield inside a second Tory-Lib Dem coalition.

One of the most important things about British politics right now is that the left is united and the right is divided. The combination of the Liberal Democrats going into coalition with the Tories and Ed Miliband’s leadership of the Labour party has seen left-wingers who moved from Labour to the Liberal Democrats during the Blair years go back to Labour. At the same time, Ukip has started eating into the Tory core vote. Combine this with constituency boundaries that hugely favour Labour and it becomes evident that Labour can win with nowhere near 40 percent of the vote. If the Tories are to stop this happening, they need to reunite the right: to win back the vast majority of those voters who have moved to Ukip. Doing this is going to take a combination of carrot and stick.