James Forsyth

If the European Commission had come to Britain demanding another £90 million because this country’s economy had performed better than expected, it would have been a political headache for David Cameron. The money would have been handed over and Ukip would have slapped it on to its election leaflets. But the Commission’s demand for £1.7 billion extra from Britain is so outrageous that it provides Cameron with a political opportunity. He can refuse to pay and hold up all other European business until the demand is dropped, rallying the country to his side as Margaret Thatcher did over the British rebate. One Cabinet Minister says excitedly of the row with the Commission, ‘This provides us with an opportunity to tell them where to get off’.

Johann Lamont and Tony Blair don’t have much in common. But they are both causing Ed Miliband trouble this morning.   I suspect that those close to Miliband are relieved that Lamont has quit as the leader of the Scottish Labour party; his statement on her resignation last night was barely lukewarm. Certainly, the Miliband circle didn’t hold her in high regard and became despairing of her abilities during the referendum campaign. But what they won’t like is how she has taken a swing at them on the way out. She has lambasted Miliband’s office for treating Scottish Labour as ‘a branch office of a party based in London.’ These words will sting and be thrown back at Labour by the Scottish Nationalists at every opportunity.

A visibly riled David Cameron railed at the European Commission's 'completely unacceptable' behaviour in demanding another £1.7 billion from Britain by the 1st of December. He warned that he certainly won't be paying this bill then, and that anyone who thinks he will 'have another think coming'.

The rest of Europe has, predictably, reacted negatively to the suggestion that the UK should be able to impose some kind of cap on free movement while remaining in the EU. At first glance, it does sound as if David Cameron wants the UK to stay a member of the European club without subscribing to one of its founding rules. But there’s actually a very good argument for why the UK should be treated differently. As I say in my column this week, Britain is the one major EU economy that is never going to join the euro. This makes Britain a special case. If there is no limit on the number of EU migrants who can move here, the UK - with its different business cycle - is going to become the main safety valve for the Eurozone when it goes into recession. This is already beginning to happen.

Tonight, we have a second poll from Rochester & Strood and it again shows Ukip ahead. Mark Reckless doesn’t lead by Clacton margins—Ukip are on 43 and the Tories 30 in this ComRes poll—but his advantage is formidable with just four weeks to go. Particularly alarming for the Tories is how many voters there intend to use this by-election to kick the government. 62 percent of those polled agree with the statement that, ‘“This by-election is a good opportunity for me to show David Cameron and the Conservative Party how unhappy I am with their government”   Having already announced that Cameron—and every other Tory member of the Cabinet—will visit five times, the Tories cannot now pull back from the fight.

At his press conference this morning, Nick Clegg told Jason Groves, ‘Do you really think Washington is going to bother picking up the phone if we can’t even punch above our weight in our own back yard?’ This must be one of the most absurd bits of political hyperbole in recent years. There’s an argument to be had about whether or not Britain would be less influential in Washington if it left the EU. But the idea that the Americans wouldn’t bother to even pick up the phone to a country that’s a permanent member of the UN Security Council is just risible. One of the real problems for pro-Europeans is that they are so inclined to hyperbole when it comes to the consequences of Britain leaving the EU.

Ken Clarke is one of the biggest beasts left in the Tory jungle. He had been a fixture in every Tory government since Ted Heaths time until Cameron retired him at the last reshuffle. But Clarke is clearly deeply concerned with Cameron’s strategy at the moment.   On Tuesday night, at a meeting of the Tory parliamentary party, Clarke warned Cameron that by talking up immigration so much, he was only helping Ukip. He argued that the public have an ‘insatiable appetite’ for clampdowns on immigration and so the Tories could never match Ukip on this. He said that, instead, the Tories should be talking about their strongest suit, the economy.   A surprisingly large number of Tory MPs agree with Clarke’s analysis.

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_16_Oct_2014_v4.mp3" title="Lord Pearson and Damian Green join Lara Prendergast on this week's podcast to discuss Ukip and the Tories." startat=79.5] Listen [/audioplayer] What result at the next election would most suit Ukip? There is little doubt that the party would most benefit from a Labour victory in 2015, which I discussed in my Spectator column this week. In brief, Labour victory would mean: 1. No EU referendum and more EU immigration. Ed Miliband has taken a strong stance against an In/Out referendum despite pressure from inside his shadow Cabinet to agree to one. He is unlikely to change his mind on this if he became Prime Minister.

It has been clear for several years now that the Tories would not agree to a repeat of 2010 when there were three debates in three weeks featuring the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem leaders. The Tories complain that these debates sucked the life out of the campaign—but the fact that they didn’t benefit from the debates is another reason they soured on them. This time round, the Tories have made noises about favouring a direct Cameron-Miliband head to head debate but have not committed to anything. Indeed, some Tories worry that expectations are so low for Miliband that he would be the beneficiary of any debate between the two. In an attempt to break this logjam, the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Sky have come forward with a joint proposal for debates ahead of next year’s election.

Ukip has won its first by-election: Douglas Carswell is the party’s first elected MP. In a stunning night for the party, it also ran Labour mighty close in Heywood and Middleton—coming in just 617 votes behind.

2.50am Douglas Carswell’s victory speech, after winning a 12,404 majority, was not triumphalist: there was no tub-thumping. Instead, he said that Ukip must be the party of 1st and 2nd generation Britons, that its passion must be tempered by compassion and argued that the era of dominant cartel was coming to an end in everything from banking to politics. listen to ‘Douglas Carswell's Clacton victory speech’ on audioBoom 2.45 Ukip win Clacton, Douglas Carswell is Ukip's first elected MP with more than 60% of the vote 2.35am Result coming very soon now 2.15 The BBC's Chris Mason is reporting that Douglas Carswell will have a 12 thousand plus majority, a quite remarkable result 2.