Isabel Hardman

A lot of focus today will be on how Labour would cut the deficit (and perhaps how George Osborne actually plans to get it done rather than just talking about it, given the Item Club warning that deficit reduction will plateau). Ed Balls has been arguing this morning that Labour would ‘balance the books in a fairer way’ but he’s got to show this afternoon when he responds to the Autumn Statement that Labour really can persuade voters to trust the party again on the economy, especially now that he and Ed Miliband rank behind Farage on this matter. But speaking of Farage, today is the first economic statement in the Commons where Ukip has had MPs sitting opposite the Chancellor.

The Conservative party is all abuzz this afternoon, but it’s not about the Autumn Statement. They’ve been told that there is a three-line whip vote on ‘something’ on Thursday. Not even the whips know what the vote is on, other than that they must tell MPs to turn up. Labour is also on a three-line whip. Apparently all will be revealed tomorrow at the Autumn Statement, which suggests that this is going to be some kind of elephant trap laid by George Osborne for Labour.

Labour is very pleased with the amount of attention it garnered for its new private schools policy when Tristram Hunt unveiled it last week. So it was natural that the Shadow Education Secretary used this as his main line of attack at today’s Education Questions. He set the scene first using one of his shadow ministerial team Alison McGovern, who contrasted bankers’ pay rising by 7 per cent on average with a 1 per cent rise for nursery staff. It was clear that Labour was keen for a game of Us vs Them. Hunt then piggybacked onto a question from party colleague Ian Lucas about the public benefit of private schools and these comments on the matter by Sir Michael Wilshaw.

Fridays in the House of Commons Chamber are rarely edifying experiences, and today a number of MPs and campaigners are very exercised that two backbenchers managed to talk out a private members’ bill which claimed to give tenants better protection against so-called ‘revenge evictions’. These evictions are when a tenant complains about the leaking bath or mouldy wall and finds themselves being turfed out by their landlord. Sarah Teather had introduced the Tenancies (Reform) Bill to prevent landlords issuing no-fault eviction notices if they had failed to meet safety standards and their tenant had formally complained about them. The government decided to support it and so did Labour, though many MPs were out of the Commons doing their normal Friday constituency work.

David Cameron will make his ‘game-changer’ speech on immigration tomorrow in which he is expected to say that the UK will leave the EU if it does not secure reforms that allow the government to deny benefits to migrants. He will say: ‘If we cannot put our relationship with the EU on a better footing, then of course I rule nothing out.’ This is not the emergency brake or points-based system that the PM seemed to hint at previously and therefore unless there is more in the speech, some of his MPs may feel rather let down. Many were today saying that they expected it to be reasonably small beer, but others will be pleased at the conditionality Cameron is now attaching to Britain’s ongoing membership.

One of the major themes of this year’s big Tory reshuffle was the attempt to detoxify certain policy areas where a minister was involved in a stand-off with certain groups the Tory party would quite like to vote for them. Michael Gove lost his job as Education Secretary for this reason, and so too did Nick Boles find himself being moved from Planning to Skills. Owen Paterson’s departure was a bit more complicated: his aide warned in the days before the reshuffle that to move the Environment Secretary would be to leave 12 million voters in the countryside without a voice, but he was in the midst of pretty high voltage rows with animal rights and environmental groups. And he lost his job.