Hamish Macdonell

Edinburgh If anyone had any doubts why Alex Salmond picked up almost every UK political award going last year, then they should study how he has dealt with the referendum issue this week. At every turn he has out-manoeuvred his UK counterparts — and this was perfectly demonstrated tonight. Earlier today, in the Commons, Michael Moore, the Scottish Secretary, had delivered the UK government’s riposte to the SNP’s referendum plans. Mr Moore was considered, clever and smart. In fact, it was a first cogent and effective strike back by the UK government on this issue for more than a year. But what will lead tomorrow’s papers in Scotland? It won’t be Mr Moore’s statement.

Some political leaders might be a bit hesitant when it comes to approaching lottery winners in the hope of securing some of their dosh for the party cause – but not Alex Salmond. Back in July this year, when it emerged that a couple in Ayrshire – Colin and Chris Weir – had scooped a record £161 million on the EuroMillions, Scotland's First Minister reacted with astonishing speed. Within days Mr Salmond had written a letter to the couple congratulating them on their success and adding: 'When I heard the fantastic news that a Scot had landed the EuroMillions jackpot, I did wonder if this was the same Colin Weir who helped produce SNP party political broadcasts for a young party publicity vice-convener all those years ago.

Ruth Davidson was reluctant to say very much when she accepted the Scottish Conservative leadership this afternoon, insisting only that she wants to build up Tory party membership north of the border. But she knows – and all those around her know too – that membership levels are the least of her problems. Ms Davidson faces one of the most intractable puzzles in British politics: how to get Scots to vote Tory again. Everyone involved in Conservative politics north of the border knows the significance of 1955 – that was the year the Tories (and their allies) won a majority of both seats and votes in Scotland. Since then, the road for the Conservatives has been steadily and inexorably downhill.

How long will Alex Salmond's honeymoon with the voters of Scotland continue? Given that his next mission is to hold and win an independence referendum, much depends on his popularity and that of his party. Today, a third opinion poll puts support for the Scottish National Party at just under half of the national electorate. Angus Reid, polling for the Sunday Express, puts support for the SNP has now hit a remarkable 49 per cent. Given that the Nationalists only won 45 per cent of the votes in May's election – enough to sweep all the unionist parties into the background – this new high just shy of 50 per cent really does represent an extraordinary development in Scottish political terms. The poll also shows how far the Liberal Democrats have fallen.

It has to be one of the most astonishing – not to mention bold and risky – moves ever attempted by a politician, of any colour. This morning Murdo Fraser, the Deputy Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party and clear frontrunner for the leadership of the Scottish Tories, announced plans to disband his own party if he wins the leadership contest. Under his plans, the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party would cease to be. It would be an ex-party. The Conservatives would fight no more elections in Scotland after next year’s council elections. Instead, a new centre-right party would take its place, crucially free from the toxicity which still surrounds the Conservative brand north of the border.

That's it, the full house. Alex Salmond has seen off all three main opposition party leaders before the Scottish Parliament has even convened for the first time in this new session. Yesterday afternoon, Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie joined her Labour and Liberal Democrat counterparts (Iain Gray and Tavish Scott) in standing down. The Conservatives did not do quite as badly as either of the other two opposition parties in the election – they went down two seats, from 17 to 15 – and many will see that as the reason Miss Goldie delayed her resignation for a few days, to work out of she could continue. But, in reality, Miss Goldie always seemed destined to resign after this Holyrood poll.

Two down and one to go: that’s the score among the opposition leaders in the Scottish Parliament as the parties continue to sift through the wreckage left by the SNP tsunami last week. Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, didn’t wait long. He announced he was quitting on Friday afternoon, even before the full extent of Alex Salmond’s landslide victory was officially declared. Mr Gray will stay on until the autumn but will go then to allow someone else to start the unenviable task of picking Scottish Labour up from its disastrous performance last week. Yesterday Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, told his parliamentary party that he was resigning too.

Can Ed Miliband and Ed Balls save Labour in Scotland? The two Labour heavyweights have decided to move in to rescue their party's disastrous campaign in Scotland — with Balls being sent up north to sharpen his party's teeth. A desperate measure for a desperate situation: Labour has not only blown a 10-15 point lead over the SNP in just a few weeks, but now languishes some 10-13 percentage points behind. A mammoth, humiliating defeat looms. Until now, Labour has liked to portray its campaign for the Holyrood elections as a totally Scottish affair: run in Scotland, organised in Scotland and led by Scottish politicians. Not any more.

The SNP have this morning been put a whopping 13 points above Labour in the Scottish Parliament race: on 45 percent and 46 percent of the vote in two separate polls. Given that they went into this election campaign somewhere around 35 percent, this represents a huge leap giving them a near-impregnable lead in the Holyrood race. And that's what's worrying them in SNP headquarters. Salmond's strategists, packed into a third-floor office suite behind the Scottish Parliament fear that – in the words of one senior Nationalist – “we have gone too early”. That Labour may now plausibly play the underdog card, and SNP votes may be inclined to stay at home thinking that it's in the bag.