Gavin Mortimer

The ninth weekend of the gilet jaune protest movement was a mixed result for Emmanuel Macron. The nationwide demonstrations were relatively peaceful with only minor skirmishes between protestors and police, but numbers were up, with a total of 84,000 taking to the streets, 34,000 more than the previous Saturday. This is an impressive figure given that we are in the depth of the northern hemisphere winter, but what are rain, sleet and sub-zero temperatures when the future of one's country is at stake? With that in mind Macron launches his Big Debate on Tuesday in the hope that consultation will supplant confrontation and a consensus can be reached behind which the country can unite and move forward. The odds of that happening appear to be slim.

Where ever one looks in France at the start of 2019 one sees only ominous signs. In his New Year's message to his people Emmanuel Macron issued a robust warning to the gilets jaunes, elements of which he described as 'a hate-filled crowd'. Accusing them of having attacked the police, the media, Jews and homosexuals, the president vowed that 'Republican order will be ensured with no leniency'. That drew a swift retort from one of the self-styled yellow vest movement leaders, Maxime Nicolle, who in a facebook post, predicted an 'armed uprising', adding that 'a lot of people are ready to lose their lives in the hope of a better future'.

Twelve months ago Le Journal du Dimanche published an opinion poll in which Emmanuel Macron had an approval rating of 52 per cent. A fortnight ago the same paper ran a poll in which the president's popularity stood at 23 per cent. Where has it gone so wrong for the man once likened among sections of the French press to a cross between Jupiter and Christ? More to the point how could The Spectator get it so wrong in running a piece last December entitled 'Macron is becoming the darling of the Deplorables'? I can only assume that when I wrote that article, in particular the line about Macron having 'a wise head on those young political shoulders', I had come from a long Christmas lunch. In my defence I would like to point out that I did temper my praise with some cautious prognosis.

There are conspiracy theories doing the rounds in France among some gilets jaunes that Tuesday's Islamist attack in Strasbourg was somehow fabricated by the government. It was cooked up, so the social media conspirators say, to deter demonstrators from launching a fifth weekend of protests. The various theories are all very far-fetched. The alleged gunman, Chérif Chekatt, who was shot dead by police on Thursday evening, had a history of violent crime and, more significantly, is believed to have been converted to Islamic extremism while in prison. It's a back story shared by several other Islamists who have carried out attacks in France in the last six and a half years. Nonetheless, there may well be a connection between the Strasbourg attack and the yellow vest movement.

Emmanuel Macron spoke to the French people for thirteen minutes on Monday evening. It was an uncharacteristically sombre address from the president, one in which he admitted he had to take his 'share of responsibility' for the anger that provoked the yellow vest movement. As well as conceding he 'might have hurt people with my words', Macron also announced a series of measures that he hopes will defuse the discontent of his people and bring an end to the violent chaos across the country that has cost retailers alone upwards of €1b since it began on November 17. An additional €100 a month will be added to the minimum wage and pensioners receiving less than €2,000-a-month will be exempt from social security taxes scheduled to take effect next year.

Not quite a ghost town, but when I emerged from the metro at Saint-Germain-des-Prés at midday central Paris was eerily calm for a Saturday in the festive season. I once lived in this district and December was always a nightmare for shoppers and tourists. Not today. Louis Vuitton was shut and boarded, so, too, Swarovski and a couple of banks and most cafes. I walked towards the Seine and on the Quai Voltaire I encountered my first riot police. They had a dozen Gilets Jaunes against the wall, frisking them in a courteous manner. Crossing the Pont des Arts I spotted a Father Christmas in a Yellow Vest walking briskly along the river path. Under the bridge and out of sight of the police, Santa Claus stripped.

In normal circumstances, Emmanuel Macron would welcome a trip to Marrakech in December as an opportunity to escape cold Paris and enjoy some North African hospitality. But his date in the Moroccan city next week could not have come at a worse time. France is burning and Macron's presence on Monday at the United Nations intergovernmental conference in order to sign France up to the global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration could add to the conflagration. The United Nations states that the global compact "comprises 23 objectives for better managing migration at local, national, regional and global levels". The document has been more than two years in the making and its aim is to help the 258 million migrants around the world living outside their country of birth.

Marine Le Pen spent last Saturday commenting on the scenes from the Champs-Elysées as the latest Gilets Jaunes demonstration turned violent. She also had the opportunity to respond to Christophe Castaner, the interior minister who, as cobbles rained down on the heads of the riot police, accused Le Pen of inciting the far-right to go on the rampage. Le Pen rejected the allegations, saying she had done no such thing; and anyway, as far as the National Rally leader was concerned, the people running amok in the capital weren't from the far-right.

Out and about in Paris on Saturday I passed scores of protestors on their way to the Champs-Élysées to vent their fury against Emmanuel Macron. Wearing their gilet jaunes (yellow vests), they were angry, determined and overwhelmingly white and middle-aged. The nationwide protest that pulled in nearly 300,000 demonstrators has been billed as a pushback against rising fuel tax but it goes much deeper than that; it's the revolt of the people against a president they believe holds them in contempt. As one demonstrator told Le Figaro: 'Macron is the president of the rich and not the poor. He should think also about the poor.' Macron rarely thinks about the poor, except to insult them.

Emmanuel Macron's hosting of sixty world leaders in Paris last weekend to commemorate the centenary of the Armistice has turned into a public relations disaster. The president of the Republic not only infuriated Donald Trump, but he also put the Serbian president's nose out of joint. According to reports, Aleksandar Vucic was not amused with the seating arrangements at Sunday's service of remembrance. While Kosovo's president Hashim Thaçi was behind the leaders of France, Germany, Russia, and the United States, Vucic was shunted off to the side. "You can imagine how I felt," Thaci is quoted as telling the Serbian media. "I couldn't believe what I was seeing before me, knowing the sacrifice that the Serbian people made in World War One.

Emmanuel Macron was elated when France won the World Cup in July. The photograph of him leaping out of his seat at the Moscow stadium showed a leader at the peak of his power. Or so he thought. Ever since then, he has been bumping back to earth. Last week, the French President took the unusual step of retiring to Honfleur for four days’ rest and recuperation. ‘His face has changed, he is marked by the weight of power,’ confided one of his team; another expressed concern about the President’s weight loss. Part of his deterioration is self-inflicted. Macron likes to boast that he gets by on four hours of sleep, and his texts to ministers in the early hours are legendary.