Gavin Mortimer

Who are the ten per cent of the French population that Emmanuel Macron wishes to 'emmerder' or, as we say on this side on the Channel, 'piss off'? It is a question that is rarely scrutinised, certainly by the foreign press. Are the refuseniks the Gallic answers to Novak Djokovic and Piers Corbyn? There is in France, as in Britain, a vocal and aggressive anti-vax movement who propagate all manner of wild conspiracy theories about the jab. But they are in the minority among the unvaccinated. On the rare occasions when the French media probe the background of the five million who have declined the vaccination they find that they are predominantly young city-dwellers, often unemployed or on low incomes.

The new year has not started well for Emmanuel Macron. It began badly when some bright spark in the Elysée thought it would be a good idea to mark France's six-month presidency of the European Union by unfurling the bloc's blue and gold flag under the Arc de Triomphe. Millions of French were not amused at what they regarded as a sacrilegious gesture. Macron's two main rivals on the right, Marine Le Pen of the National Rally and Valérie Pécresse of the Republicans, accused the president of dishonouring the memory of the country's military. By Sunday, the EU flag had made a tactical withdrawal, to the delight of Le Pen, who crowed: 'The government has been forced to remove the EU flag from the Arc de Triomphe, a beautiful patriotic victory at the start of 2022.

Eric Zemmour enjoyed a propitious weekend as he embarked on his first official overseas visit as a presidential candidate. It began with the endorsement of Philippe de Villiers, an influential businessman and political commentator (and the brother of Pierre, the chief of the defence staff who quit in 2017 after falling out with Emmanuel Macron). De Villiers appeals to the more sophisticated senior conservative voter and he has carved out a reputation for himself in recent years as a pungent critic of Islam; among his oeuvre is the best-selling book, Will the church bells still ring tomorrow?. In explaining why he has thrown his support behind Zemmour, de Villiers said that he is the ‘only candidate with the judgment and courage to talk about civilisation.

The best way to describe Valérie Pécresse is Emmanuel Macron in a blouse. The newly-elected candidate for Les Republicans (LR) swears she is the French president’s polar opposite, but ideologically there is little to separate the pair. The 54-year-old Pécresse, who will now stand against Macron in next year's presidential election, has been on the political scene for three decades. She is currently the president of the Paris region, and is not only stinking rich, but a centrist, a globalist and a committed Europhile. Pécresse was born in Neuilly-sur-Seine, the poshest part of Paris, into an upper middle class family.

George W Bush will forever be in debt to The Donald. Before Trump became the 45th president of the United States, the man nicknamed 'Dubya' was widely considered by many Americans to be the most inept. Then came Trump. No longer was Bush a clown. The American left forget how they'd demonised him and looked wistfully to a time when there was dignity in the Oval Office. Marine Le Pen is experiencing something similar since Eric Zemmour's emergence as a presidential candidate. She is no longer Public Enemy No. 1 since her detractors turned their fire on Zemmour; where once their battle-cry before any election was 'Anyone but Le Pen', now it's 'Anyone but Zemmour' Le Pen is doing her best to exploit the situation.

So it's official: Eric Zemmour will stand as a candidate in next year's French presidential election. It was hardly a shock when he launched his campaign this morning with a video that was the visual equivalent of a Michel Houellebecq novel. Nearly seven years ago, Houellebecq's novel, Submission, depicted an incipient civil war in France as the 2022 election approached. Zemmour believes that fiction is now a reality. It seems that whether or not people agree, there is widespread interest in Zemmour's message: in the three hours since he launched the video on YouTube, it's been viewed 430,000 times.  France is going to pot, was the gist of his ten minute address, and unless I'm elected president forget about a rosy future.

Last month on Coffee House I drew attention to the inconsistency in how Europe responded to the migrant crises in Belarus and France. Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, was accused of ‘weaponising’ Middle Eastern migrants seeking to enter Europe at his country's border with Poland, but no government dared criticise France for the chaos in Calais. There is similar hypocrisy in how the EU has reacted to Dutch police firing live bullets at protesters in Rotterdam. Last Friday three people venting their anger at the fresh Covid restrictions imposed by the Dutch government were wounded by what a police spokesperson referred to as ‘warning shots’. Shouldn’t warning shots have been fired over protesters’ heads and not into their bodies?

It’s not often you find Eric Zemmour plastered across the front of Closer magazine. Brigitte Macron, Beyonce and Lady Gaga are the preferred darlings of the celebrity magazine. But this week’s issue – which is selling like gâteaux chaud in France – has on its cover Zemmour and his 28-year-old paramour Sarah Knafo and underneath what can only be described as a bombshell: ‘He’s going to be a dad in 2022!’ Is Zemmour really upset or is it faux outrage? There are more photos on pages 12 and 13, including a close-up of Madame Knafo’s alleged bump as she and her beau, 35 years her senior, stroll through a Parisian park. The cynic might wonder if these photos are all very convenient.

It was hard not to laugh, coldly, at the statement from western members of the UN Security Council that condemned Belarus for engineering the migrant crisis on its border with Poland. Following Thursday’s emergency UN Security Council meeting, western members published a joint statement, accusing Belarus of putting migrants’ lives in danger ‘for political purposes’. That's true, of course, but to hear such words from France. Quelle hypocrisie! There are far fewer migrants camping out in cardboard cities in Paris this year. Why? Because these camps have been broken up and the migrants – overwhelmingly young men from Africa and the Middle East – have headed north to Calais.

There are several similarities between Eric Zemmour and the Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn, and one distinct difference. The Dutchman was homosexual and an ardent campaigner for gay rights, whereas the Frenchman, who has three children, recently reaffirmed his opposition to gay marriage. But on Islam and immigration they had much in common. Fortuyn, for example, campaigned for a reduction in the overall annual number of immigrants to Holland from 40,000 to 10,000, with not one Muslim among that figure. Zemmour wants an end to all immigration and believes that Islam ‘is not compatible with France’. Fortuyn paid with his life for his views. He was assassinated on May 6, 2002, nine days before the Dutch parliamentary elections.

The received opinion is that Islam and immigration are Éric Zemmour's prime targets as his putative presidential campaign gathers pace. But he has a third mortal enemy, and that's the Anglophone world. Éric doesn't much like us. But then Éric doesn't much like anyone who's not, as his sort are wont to say, Français de souche. Zemmour's rabble-rousing is becoming tiresome. He is lashing out in all directions, his latest act of belligerence a swipe at Britain and America during a rally in Rouen on Friday. The English, he thundered, have been France's 'greatest enemies for a thousand years' while D-Day 'was an enterprise of liberation but also of occupation and colonisation by the Americans'.