Fraser Nelson

Today, George Osborne used a speech to administer what he called ‘hard truths’ about the economy. But in some cases, the truth was even harder than he let on. Here is a Fisk of his speech... 1. Size matters — ‘Government is going to have to be permanently smaller – and so too is the welfare system.’  This phrase — 'permanently smaller' — is designed to appeal to Conservatives. But in isolation, it's pretty meaningless: smaller than what? The Brown peak? The below graph tells the story. The size of the British government (in red) used to be around average for a developed country (in blue).

Today's Sunday Times revives reports that senior Conservatives are concerned that Alex Salmond will prevail in next year's referendum and that David Cameron will be the last British Prime Minister. Personally, I'd be concerned if they were not concerned - Salmond is a formidable late-stage campaigner and the 'no' side is, in effect, being led by the parties out of whom he made mincemeat in the last Scottish Parliament election. The future of our country is at stake: now is not the time to take anything for granted. Especially at a time when unionist parties in Scotland have been collectively spanked by a formidable and well-funded SNP campaign. But what about specific concerns about Alistair Darling's leadership of the campaign?

In my interview with David Cameron in the current Christmas edition of The Spectator, there wasn't enough space for everything - including his thoughts on press regulation. We did discuss it, in the back of his car, and he warned that the press is playing a dangerous game in its defiance — i.e., refusing to sign up to the Politicians' Charter. This was an elegant and voluntary compromise, he said, and the alternative may be compulsory statutory regulation enforced by an illiberal Labour government. After the publication of the Leveson Report in November last year, Cameron spoke very eloquently about the danger of statutory regulation - rejecting regulation which 'has the potential to infringe free speech and a free press'.

Earlier on today, I was asked by Angus MacNeil, a Scottish National Party MP if I would choose a Scottish or a British passport should they win the referendum. As he knows, the choice is anathema to those of us who are proud to be both Scottish and British and don’t see any antagonism that needs to be resolved by separation. SNP politicians, in my experience, are some of the nicest people in politics on either side of the border. Moderate, friendly, intelligent, open-minded, gentle: such decent types that you can end up being blinded to their agenda. Which is to destroy Britain, to force people to choose between being Scottish or British, to advocate a narrow-minded nationalism that involves putting up borders when the rest of Europe has been taking them down.

The ONS has today revised upwards its growth for most of 2013, to show a recovery far stronger than it admitted at the time. This fits a trend: in economics, good luck tends to come in waves. And the tools economists have to work out what's happening are so crude (and often useless) that it takes years to work out what really happened. Only in 2011, for example, was it clear that Gordon Brown had incubated the worst economic overheating since the war - hence the crash. But by the time this was clear, everyone blamed bankers for the crash - when, in fact, it was just reckless economic management. Which all the economists, with their 'output gap' spreadsheets, missed. Remember the triple dip? The above graph, from Citi (pdf), shows what nonsense that turned out to be.

It’s 9.30 a.m. on a Friday and David Cameron is about to head for his Oxfordshire constituency and work from home. This is precisely the habit that his Cabinet Office minister, Francis Maude, is trying to beat out of the civil service, but the Prime Minister has a reasonable claim to some downtime. In the past five days he has met 150 businessmen and toured four Chinese cities. This morning, he has paid a visit to Tech City, London’s answer to Silicon Valley, and travelled to South Africa House to pass on his condolences following Nelson Mandela’s death. His last appointment, which will last for as long as it takes to drive to Beaconsfield service station, is an interview with The Spectator.

1. Growth has been re-forecast, again (above). This year and next, it's a lot better than Osborne forecast last time (in the red). A little worse thereafter. 2. The projected deficit is, as a result, smaller than he forecast in March. But still way ahead of his original Plan A. 3.  Debt as a share of GDP, Osborne will still miss his target: to have the ratio falling by 2015/16. It's worth remembering that he's still going slower on debt that the Darling plan that he attacked in the last election. 4. Employment: the bright spot. Public sector workforce has fallen by 640,000 but George Osborne rightly points out this is more than offset by 1.3 million more workers hired by companies. Result?

Earlier on this evening, I bumped into John Woodcock who I’ve known since my days at The Scotsman. He’s swapped journalism for politics and is now Labour MP for Barrow and Furness. We met in an ITV studio, and I asked what he was going on to talk about. “Popping pills,” he replied. He has decided to go public about the fact that he is being treated for depression – which is no small decision for an MP. It has, historically, been the sort of thing people keep quiet about. And that's what John is trying to change. At any one time, about two million of us are being treated for depression. But people don’t tend not to talk about it – which, of course, can create the impression that it’s something to be embarrassed about.