Fraser Nelson

Where Nairn goes, so goes Scotland. And it’s bad news for Alex Salmond because my old school, Nairn Academy, held a mock referendum on Scottish independence yesterday and the white smoke has just come out. They voted 71/28 to stay in the union with a 64 per cent turnout. This is more than a stunt from a Highland comprehensive: next year’s independence referendum is one in which 16 and 17 year olds will be voting so the opinion of Scottish school pupils matters. When Salmond decided to extend the franchise in this way, he obviously assumed the young would be all on his side. Not much. This is the Facebook (or Instagram) generation: their world is digital and their horizons are global.

The national debt figures are out - £1.2 trillion and rising – and although I hate to say it, the Labour Party has a valid point to make. If you don't adjust for inflation, Osborne has borrowed more in under four years than the Labour Party borrowed over 13 years. It’s unusual for Ed Balls to talk about debt accumulation as a bad thing, perhaps because his policy remains the accumulation of even more debt. But here’s the story so far:- Labour is, as ever, spinning too much. As they know, you need to adjust for inflation to make any meaningful comparison in public spending. But the overall point holds. Now, things are going pretty well for Osborne. Today , a CBI survey shows the strongest orders for manufacturing since 1995 (note from Citi here, graph below).

It’s tempting to see Nick Clegg as a champion of lower taxes. He's nudged the tax threshold up over this parliament and in a letter sent out to Liberal Democrat members  (while David Cameron is out of the country) he suggests the state should only start to confiscate earnings from people when they hit £10,500 a year, higher than his current target of £10,000, from April 2015. He has this to say: Think of it as a workers' bonus. The British people have lived with austerity for three years. Your sacrifices are making it possible for us to fix the economy*. This is your recovery and you deserve to feel the benefits - without delay." While I applaud his focus on those on low incomes, this is a rather weak solution.

Gordon Brown used to joke that there are only two types of Chancellors: 'those who fail and those who get out in time.' Inside this joke lay his strategy: he was stoking a debt-fuelled bubble that was going to burst, but he hoped it would do so after the election or on someone else’s watch. It’s the textbook definition of putting party over country. I’m afraid that we can see its reflection in Help to Buy. David Cameron’s article in the Sun today shows this politicking is back. Look, he said, this policy shows I’m on the side of aspirational voters. If you want to get on in life, the Tories are on your side – they’ll kit you out with a sub-prime housing loan. After all, what could possibly go wrong?

We've now finished the  Spectator's Parliamentarian of the Year awards, and have moved up to the bar. There were two big surprises this afternoon. The first was the quality of Theresa May's jokes (below).

Things are lining up nicely for George Osborne’s Autumn Statement next month (and fairly badly for Ed Miliband, who's making his economic speech today). For the first time since he became Chancellor, he will be able to report forecasts better, not worse, than his previous suggestions. The European Commission has just upped its UK growth forecast for next year to 2.2 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent – the largest upgrade of any European country. The Eurocrats are, of course, just catching up with the changing independent consensus. The graph pictured above (from the Treasury) shows how the consensus for 2014 growth has been revised upwards month after month. So where will it end up?

When George Osborne first announced his plans for high speed rail, I was all for it. I’ve spent too much of my life on broken-down trains between Inverkeithing and London – and, like many Scots, resented the way that most transport money seemed to be spent in the imperial capital. As I say in my Telegraph column today, the key to staying happy about HS2 is not to think about it much further: don’t contemplate the costs, don’t ask if transport can be helped in other ways. This is what Westminster is doing: all its parties have signed up to the project. They won’t have a proper debate about it. We at The Spectator did out bit last night, with yet another highly successful debate on HS2.

The foxes have voted, and after careful deliberation concluded that they should be in charge of the chicken coop. No one should be surprised by the outcome of tonight's Privy Council meeting: a group of politicians, masquerading as the voice of crown, has just approved a Royal Charter which gives them power to set the terms under which the press operates in Britain. The decision was taken in secrecy and the newspapers are suing. It's a royal mess, but one with a very clear solution. This new Royal Charter does not force newspapers to join. It's a bizarre new club, looking for members. It must now be ignored.

The Department for Education has just released a statement about free schools, which can be translated as saying: Oi Clegg! Free schools: clue's in the name. They don't have to listen to what you or any other politician thinks about the curriculum and they're as free as private schools to take on staff who have not gone through the QTS teacher training programme. So speculate as much as you like, Cleggy, about the liberties you'd like to extinguish after 2015. The genie of school freedom is out of the bottle and won't be put back in under this government. (My understanding is that David Laws is at one with Michael Gove over this, and made statements last week to this effect - I suspect Laws be just as appalled over the implications of Clegg's overtures to the teaching unions).

Nick Clegg’s aides have been briefing the Sunday newspapers saying (in effect) that he that he's had enough of this school freedom malarkey. Certain head teachers are using their new liberties in ways of which he disapproves. So if he's in government after the next election, he'll curtail these freedoms somehow. He's chosen to enter the squabble over 'qualified' teachers (a canard, explained below). He also proposes curtailing freedoms teachers have been given over the curriculum. But the more important overall point is that he's positioning himself as being opposed to Michael Gove's reforms. 'Clegg turns on Michael Gove over his 'ideological' school reforms' says The Observer (right). The Independent on Sunday has a similar story.