Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson

The truth behind inflation

Is Brown right on inflation? TGF UKIP appeals for help: is it correct to say as he did in the Observer and on Marr that inflation is 4% in America, 3% in Eurozone and 2% in Britain?  I was thinking of Fisking the interview – but soon worked out it would be longer than the transcript. And perhaps Brown’s statistics are not supposed to be taken literally, like John Prebble’s books or the EU’s accounts. But for those who care, here’s the story on inflation.   It jerks around a lot, and Brown is lucky to have Britain in a dip and America in an upswing last month. The figures he referred to were reported by various countries. But crucially, definitions vary.

Monday

Fraser Nelson

Gordon’s passage to India

A well-connected CoffeeHouse reader kindly informs me that Brown is due in China next week, goes to India for two days and  back in time for PMQs on the Wed. But here's my favourite bit: the talks in India are not scheduled to include protests about plans to demand a cash bond for visitors as New Delhi regards this as harmless sabre-rattling not worthy of discussion. Those in India who have spoken to the UK High Commission are left with the impression this won't get past the consultation phase.

Fraser Nelson

Obama now favourite

Even on Saturday afternoon, I couldn't find a bookmaker who made Barack Obama favourite to be the next us president. People's money was still on Hillary, suggesting Iowa was a minor setback. But after the recent debates, it seems Obama will take new Hampshire tomorrow - and Ladbrokes has changed its odds. It now has him cut, from 7/4, to 5/4 favourite with Hillary knocked off her broomstick on 9/4, from 6/4.

Fraser Nelson

Brown’s back – and doing a Hillary

Don’t mention the relaunch! That will be the motto today as Gordon Brown embarks on his, ahem, new year initiative kicking off with a big speech on health . Cameron is ahead of him: he made his health speech last week. Also Brown is off to India and China later this month (or so they say; Brits are the last to be told about their PM’s plans), where Cameron and Osborne made their visit last month. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on Brown’s 8.10am Today interview. 1) Health Personalisation of NHS service, he said, will provide the “doctor you want, time you want, hospital you want”. More than 25 years after Thatcher said almost exactly the same (video clip here), the idea is still a dream for most Brits.

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Brown should help pensioners fight the cold

Last month, I posted about the number of pensioners who die from the cold each winter (more than 20,000). Two events will make it even worse this winter: the decision by N-Power to raise their bills 13% and a cold snap with temperatures as low as -17 predicted. It is in precisely these conditions that an honourable government would raise the winter fuel allowance. If Brown is looking for ideas for his relaunch, he could a lot worse.

Monday

Fraser Nelson

Son of Fraser

My favourite Ronald Reagan quote is how government is like a baby’s alimentary canal: endless appetite at one end and no responsibility at the other. I now have the chance to study the biological side of this analogy in the form of my (as-yet-unnamed) son, born this weekend. So I’ll be away from Coffee House for a short while, but back soon.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Could Cameron have survived an autumn election?

I was on BBC Radio Four’s Talking Politics today with Anne McElvoy of the Standard and Michael White of the Guardian – and Dennis Sewell in the chair. During it I made a point which I had thought uncontroversial: how close Cameron came to political destruction last autumn.   My theory is that if Brown had called that election, he’d have won. Cameron bluffed beautifully at Blackpool: his Etonian fearlessness saved him and his party. But his bold new policies would not have withstood the scrutiny of an election campaign (especially the back-of-the-envelope figures about non doms). A defeated Cameron would have had to quit, and the topic of discussion now would be a Tory leadership election.   Anyway, Michael said he strongly disagreed - which surprised me.

Friday

Fraser Nelson

How politicians reacted to Bhutto’s murder

The Bhutto murder lets the world see how politicians of all kinds react to such events. Mike Huckabee rather failed the test by offering "sincere concern and apologies for what has happened in Pakistan.” Apologies? He later explained he had misspoke and meant to say "sympathies" - but went on to make other blunders. Brown's words were well-chosen: - she "risked everything in her attempt to win democracy in Pakistan and she has been assassinated by cowards afraid of democracy". He then added a rather Blairesque proclamation that this "strengthens our resolve that terrorists will not win there, here or anywhere in the world." Brown needs to bolster his statesman credentials, and didn't blow his chance today. Cameron, too, focused on the "terrorism" line.

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Musharraf’s share of the blame

I don’t think Musharraf can now avoid be blamed for failing to provide Bhutto with the security she needed. Even worse for him that this should happen in Rawalpindi, the Army HQ and one of the most heavily-fortified cities in Pakistan.   There may be a groundswell of anger to be marshalled – the question is by whom. Musharraf wants this to be anger against terrorists and calls for unity (ahead of an election!) no doubt hoping to revive that old rule that an incumbent’s popularity rises during a war or terrorist attack. His   Nawaz Sharif’s pledge to fight her war, which James mentions, can translate as a message to PPP: unite behind me and avenge her death by ousting Musharraf.

Fraser Nelson

The implications of Bhutto’s murder

Outside the hospital where Benazir Bhutto died, her supporters chanted “Dog Musharraf, dog” – but no one would seriously believe that he, or any political party, was behind it. She herself blamed al-Qaeda and the Taliban for an October attack on her homecoming procession in Karachi which killed 130. The most likely assumption is that they are to blame this time.   If you have al-Jazeera, turn it on – its coverage is easily the best. Its commentators are focusing on how much security she was afforded by the Pakistani police: she was an obvious target. How hard did they try to protect her? Leaving holes in her security is as good as killing her.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

The forgotten victims of winter

This winter, at least 15,000 British pensioners over the age of 75 will die from the cold. Their death is a normal, recurring fact of British life – since 1991 the figures have oscillated between 17,000 and 37,600. For reasons passing my understanding, it attracts minimal media attention and zero political outrage even though much of this is avoidable (the excess winter mortality rates in Norway for the elderly are about half ours).   As I say in my News of the World column today, it issues like the lives of foxes that whip our MPs into a frenzy. There’s something deeply unfashionable about the welfare of the pensioners (who usually make up the lion’s share of our MSRA statistics as well). Last winter, excess mortality amongst all over-65s was 22,300.

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Why it is not healthy for democracy to have Brussels fix the NHS

This business with the EU and the NHS has been very disorientating. My conscience is pricked by MatthewT, who commented on my previous post: “So you guys are against the EU interfering with UK policies except where you agree with their impact. I didn’t realise Euroscepticism was so nuanced.” Well, m’lud, guilty. My side has failed to make the argument for NHS liberalisation in Britain (and has even failed to convince the Tories) but today I have an option. Why not become all pro-European, and have it forced on Britain by Brussels?   This is what the EU is all about: circumventing democratic debate.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

Brown at it again on party funding

Gordon Brown is an accomplished expert in the art of misrepresentation, here's a prime example is from his press conference today: On the political funding issue, I think the Conservative Party has exactly the same problems, revealed yesterday, in fact a problem in relation to foreign donors which is not lawful… I think the most important thing for party political party funding is that people can see this thing being sorted out as quickly as possible and that's why I regret the fact that the Conservatives have walked away from the discussions that are necessary to get an all party agreement on this issue. Exactly the same problems? In his dreams.

Fraser Nelson

Has Lansley seen the light?

I wouldn't have put it past Shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley to side with the unions in today's great health debate - and ConservativeHome wasn't sure he wouldn't either. But for once he is (the next words are hard for me to type) doing the right thing and backing Brussels. "What is the government so frightened about? Are they afraid of choice?," he asks. Mind you, the same could be asked of him. What didn't he like about IDS/Howard patient passport system? Is he afraid of choice?   If Lansley isn't being entirely opportunistic, there is a welcome shift of principle here. In the early Cameron days, he said giving NHS cash to people to attend non-NHS healthcare constituted "opting out of the NHS". It was bizarre, sectarian language that even Labour dropped in the Dobson era.

Fraser Nelson

Brussels to the rescue

It is days like this that remind you why so many on the right were in the “yes” campaign during the Euro referendum of 1975. It was then to the right of Britain on many issues and still is on the issue of healthcare provision. The European Commission will today propose to give Brits the right to escape NHS waiting lists by going anywhere in Europe – and then have the NHS repay their bill and expenses. So lo, from Brussels, a massive threat to the ‘socialism in one country’ approach of the NHS. Its “business” model has always depended on there being no competition.   The Labour left is angry about the rich escaping the NHS system by private insurance so you’d think they’d welcome the chance for the poor to do so as well.

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson

Rogue Chancellor

Alistair Darling was brought on to be a grey, unremarkable chancellor. He's fast turning into the Nick Leeson of British politics. Leeson, you will remember, was the rogue trader who played double or quits - hoping his small mistake would go away if he gambled even more. But he ended up sinking Barings. Darling should have allowed Northern Rock to be flogged to Lloyds when he had the chance. This small mistake led to a £30bn loan. Today, he's doubled it to £60bn. And remember, he cannot guarantee the safe return of this cash - your money. The City is awash with rumours of the utter chaos going on behind the scenes.

Fraser Nelson

Has Clegg got what it takes?

After perhaps the quietest leadership race in recent political history the Spectator/Threadneedle Newcomer of the Year has not disappointed us. I thought Nick Clegg would win by a mile: in the end his 510 votes are testimony what was (in my view) a superior campaign by Huhne (whom I underestimated). But the real winner was Vince “killer” Cable, who has had just enough limelight to shine and not so much that he’s had time to flop. He’s an economic expert on the economics brief: it shows what happens in the rare occasion where politicians have some expertise in their given area. There’s talk that Huhne would have moved Cable. I agree with Andrew Rawnsley that this would have been madness. He’s earned a senior role in the party.

Fraser Nelson

What other data does Pearson have?

What I love about this government is that they lose no time passing the blame. Just as Darling fingered the TNT courier company for the lost discs, we’re told that Pearson Driving Assessments is the data company (mis)handling the driver license info. Could this be the same Pearson who (as Dizzy pointed out last week) handles UK teacher training application data from their sites in Minnesota? The logo certainly appears to look the same. Dizzy’s FoI requests have shown us that such teacher data is sent daily to Pearson – whose data security credentials are, hilariously, self-assessed. This means they are given a list, tick the boxes and next thing you know they’re being sent confidential UK records.

Monday

Fraser Nelson

What we’re leaving behind in Basra

In macabre contrast to James’ post about the effects of the US surge, The Guardian splashes on the mayhem in Basra left by Britain’s shameful under-commitment to the provinces under our care. It’s mainly an interview with Major General Jalil Khalaf, the head of the Basra police, who says he can’t control the militias and (as we blogged last week) that women are getting killed for un-Islamic behaviour. Its website also offers a superb, chilling six-minute online video about what’s happening in Basra in an interview with Khalaf. “ The British did not mean to create a mess here in Basra. The chaos came from the way they set up the security forces. They didn’t do it correctly.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Downing Street and The Bank of England at odds

It is rare to have a news story by Irwin Stelzer, he normally writes excellent columns for The Spectator and The Sunday Times. But today's splash in The Sunday Times jumps out for more reasons than the byline. He reveals what I have only heard whispered: that there is paralysis at the very apex of our financial system. There is a dysfunctional relationship between the top three figures: Mervyn King (pictured), the governor of the Bank of England, The Chancellor and the Prime Minister.  Stelzer reveals that Brown is refusing to act to repair the regulatory structure he set up in 1997. It didn't work then, as Eddie George told the then Chancellor.