Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.

For how long has legitimacy been the rule?

When was the last time that most kids were born outside marriage, as they will be this year? Decades, centuries or millennia? This was the fact I couldn’t nail down for my post yesterday (which Philip Johnston has done a vg story on in the Telegraph today). I am excluding immigrants, who flatter most economic and social indictors in Britain, and I think I may have to concede defeat unless any CoffeeHousers out there know. The left has a tradition of arguing that the nuclear family is a bourgeoisie innovation.

Brown gets lively

Normally, interviewing Gordon Brown is like drawing blood from a stone. In the old days, the interviewer had to rely on someone like Charlie Whelan to call up afterwards and give a real story (like joining the Euro) to compensate for his boss’s reticence. I don’t know what the Times trio slipped into his tea today, but it seems to have worked. And does the headline “Decisive year ahead” mean that 2008 will be the year where he takes a decision? Anyway, here’s what jumped out at me. 1)      On party funding: “I don’t get into the detail of individual donations. That’s for other people.” Is this leadership? He takes over a party almost sunk by dodgy funding, and takes a see-no-evil approach to donations?

Brown’s artful dodger act

This time, Brown came ready for Cameron. If asked about one of the many embarrassing issues dogging him, he’d say “he has missed the opportunity to talk about substance” then indulge in his list of fake economic greatest hits. Cameron thought on his feet, pointing out that the substance is going wrong for the PM too. But Brown responded by again saying that Cameron can’t talk about substance, and produced another boast. So, much for the great exchange. I don’t have time here to Fisk it, but Brown’s list is disingenuous at best and downright lies at worst. It is a confidence trick: people believe that because Brown recites all this he must have a point. He doesn’t.

Brown’s betrayal of Basra

When it comes to Iraq, we know all about the US surge and its effect – there are facts, figures and reporters in the US-controlled zone. But what’s happening in British-controlled Basra? We have little idea. When Brown pitched up yesterday to say he was handing over the security file because Iraqi police are now up to the job, we have to believe him. “There are now 30,000 Iraqi police and armed forces,” he said. “As a result of that we can move to provincial control over the next few weeks.” Now, I tend to mistrust any assertion from Mr Brown with a statistic in it. I am more inclined to believe Arnaud de Borchgrave, editor-at-large of UPI, who said this in a Washington Times column last week: “Who's in charge in Basra today?

Labour would get rid of Gordon — if the plotters had a real candidate

There is conspiring in the corridors once again in Westminster. Who could replace Gordon, they ask. Labour’s problem is that the young pretenders are too young and the idea of caretaker leader seems slightly ridiculous, it would look absurd for the government to change Prime Minister twice in the same Parliament. So, Brown will solider on while the battle of succession rages just beneath the surface.  After ten tedious years of firm party discipline, life is finally returning to the corridors of the House of Commons. A lobby journalist on patrol can once again gather intelligence, whether it be from ministers colluding behind the Speaker’s chair or clusters of Labour MPs holding impromptu crisis meetings.

The economic storm clouds gather

I’m not superstitious, but if I was Gordon Brown I wouldn’t take much comfort in tonight’s figure for the one-month LIBOR interbank interest rate. It’s an ominous 6.66% - having fallen just 0.09 percentage points since the 25-point cut in Bank of England base rate. The more important three-month LIBOR is down a paltry 3 points to 6.61%. This is the market bank rate which will affect our mortgages: it is what matters. And its not going anywhere fast. Ray Boulger from John Charcol has just talked me through it. Most mortgage lenders are just ignoring the BoE rate cut, he says.

The Jewish Chronicle on how they got the Abrahams interview

The Jewish Chronicle calls to explain further following my earlier post. Jenni (with an i - my apologies) had heard Abrahams might be at the dinner and had set out to corner him. But the interview in question was not that night. It had come in dribs and drabs. "We had several conversations with him," says Richard Burton, the managing editor, as they were trying to pin him down: notes through door and everything. And during these conversations (which Abrahams may not consider to have been a formal interview, but there you go) they jotted down his comments. And woosh: today's exclusive.  So who will hear from Abarahams next? A slot of CoffeeHouse is yours, David, if you're reading...

Dinner with Abrahams

Amidst all this mystery about the Jewish Chronicle’s interview with Abrahams, an interesting aside springs to mind. I am told that Abrahams was a late arrival to the Anglo Israel Association dinner at the Savoy on Tuesday. For a laugh, they pointed him in the direction of all the hacks – including one Jenny Frazer from the JC. You can imagine her delight: a boring work night out had just got a lot more interesting.   Now, if this were me I’d chat away to Abrahams as casually as I could then rush off to the loo and jot down what he said.

Will the rate cut work?

"Interest rates are cut for the first time in two years, so does that mean we can spend more this Christmas?" so runs the headline from Radio One's Newsbeat. As so often, it cuts to the chase. The million dollar question is how will lenders respond to the rate cut? How much clout does the bungling Bank of England have? For most of the last 20 years we have assumed a direct relation: base rate cut means lower mortgages and store-card rates.  But after the summer credit crunch, the BoE is losing credibility and clout. "It's been running a 'how not to" guide for monetary policy' as one appalled banker told me last week. The divergence between the LIBOR overnight inter bank lending rates and the BoE base rate suggests something wrong in the relationship.

What the rate cut tells us

The Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates is an acknowledgment that the UK economy is in a far worse condition that Gordon Brown makes out. It’s so important, because he’s getting away with murder. His skill was not in managing the economy well, but in making people believe it had been managed well. Here are some brief points. What boom? People who say the economy has boomed under Labour tend to live in London. The OECD figures (table 1, excel file) show that most developed countries had better growth than the UK since 1997. Do they all have a Gordon Brown figure claiming credit? We’ve actually been the worst economic performer in the English-speaking world. Outrageous deficit. At the top of the economic cycle we should have a Clinton-style surplus.

Why 42 days?

It seems only yesterday that Jacqui Smith was saying “I don’t know” when asked how long terror suspects should be detained without trial. Now it seems she has decided on 42 days. The government needed to reclaim the news agenda, and this was a button waiting to be pushed. Why not 56 days? Why not 35 days? The figure will have come not from the police or MI5 (who don’t arrest anyone) but from the Labour whips. And even this may be a big ask.

A debatable triumph

Last night I was at a Policy Exchange debate where I was proposing the motion that Cameron has changed the Tory party for good. They expected 40 guests, but had 300 applications so we moved to a larger venue. Why the crowd? Part of it is this strange, voracious appetite for debate in London right now reflected in the phenomenal success of the Spectator/Intelligence Squared debates. And part of it is the simple pulling power of the Gover. At the end of it, a queue formed to speak to Michael Gove, who was like me proposing the motion. He was on classic form, dividing leaders into fag-enders (Eden after Churchill, George Bush after Reagan) and agenda-setters (Thatcher, Clinton, Cameron). Cameron had "diverted deep currents" in the party, he said.

Brown finally wins a round

I normally review PMQs from the chamber, and conclude Brown has bombed. So I tried a TV view for a bit of balance. Labour does looks better from this vantage point. In the gallery, you can compare the volume of roars (Tories far better) and see every face (Labour glum, Tories exuberant). But on TV you can just see a broad panorama of the chamber, and only the faces in the camera “donut” – who look lively, under instruction from the whips. For the first time, Brown came armed with figures, attack lines and put downs and knew when to use them. I’d actually say that Brown won.   It is simply outrageous that Brown is using the Hayden Philips party funding inquiry to defend himself from Labour’s failure to obey the current campaigning law.

The government’s damning report card

Gordon Brown likes to say people will judge this government not on day-to-day scandal but its record on public services. So the OECD's study on education is devastating. It is the world's most comprehensive assessment of pupil knowledge and skills - and it finds that English standards have fallen between 2000 and 2006. Our 15 year olds drop from 7th to 17th place for reading and from 8th to 24th place in maths. Coming on the back of a similar PIRLS study last week, it's hard to argue against. Is Ed Balls going to blame video games again? As Civitas points out, this rather contrasts with a 7 percentage points rise in pass rates for GCSE English and 4 percentage points rise in Maths.

Why the snob smear matters

One of the joys of blogging is that you can take a kicking instantly from people who disagree with you. I had this pleasure yesterday when I recommended that CoffeeHousers read the Daily Mirror piece accusing David Cameron of being a snob for holding a party and then just inviting the middle-class people to stay for dinner. Why, folk asked, would I draw attention to this muck-raking piece? Because I believe it is has much political significance. At the risk of another kicking, here’s why. When Cameron first threw his hat into the ring as leader, many Tories asked aloud if an Etonian could really be party leader. Not from a sense of inverted snobbery, but because they feared the left would caricature the Tories as being of the rich for the rich.

Cameron strong on party funding, vulnerable on dinner party etiquette

The monthly Cameron press conference is far more congenial than Brown's. Coffee is offered at the door, together with biscuits made by the chef in downstairs kitchen. But for all that, it's quite thinly attended and short (30 mins). Cameron called every journalist in the room by their first name, being utterly at ease. I guess one of the purposes of these briefings will be to strike a contrast with Brown, who only knows a handful of journalists.. Cameron had an entrée for us. He announced, statesman-style, that he’d just spoken to Sayeeda Warsi in Sudan and could confirm the pardon of Gillian Gibbons. No one cared. All questions were on party funding. A ban in billboard advertising “would be more Stalin than Mr Bean” he said.

How much will Northern Rock end up costing the taxpayer?

I notice how, in the full-page adverts he has taken out today, Richard Branson says his Northern Rock bailout plan will place no "additional" burden on the taxpayer. Even he does not suggest there will not be a burden – ie that the taxpayer won't be out of pocket for a vast amount by the end of this. Branson is no charity worker. He and other bidders will be able to smell ministerial fear and that is when precisely when private sector workers profit. It is a daft businessman who walks away from this bungling government without heavily profiting one way or another. Just ask the directors of QinetiQ. Brown will want Northern Rock off his hands and will be willing to pay for this.  Remember, Black Wednesday cost £3.3bn.

What Gordon needs for Christmas

On Marr, David Cameron rightly said that the question on funding is "Who Knew?" This is also the title of a song last year by Pink which has been irritatingly replaying in my head since this all erupted. For my News of the World column (not online), I put this down as one of the tracks you could put on a Christmas CD to cheer up Gordon Brown. Here are the rest. Two CDs, of course, would really make his day. So can CoffeeHousers think of any extra tracks? 1)     Who Knew? (Pink) 2)     How Long Has This Been Going On?

Tories must say no to more state funding

Hazel Blears’s appearance on Marr provides yet another example of how Team Brown likes putting up women on TV when it's in real trouble; perhaps, it is because the women have more guts. Anyway, she was making the case for state funding. "Politics does cost money" she says, and if the public will not supply it voluntarily it evidently follows that it will be taken from them under pain of imprisonment under the tax system. It’s an appalling proposal, which the Tories should reject outright. I hope there is consensus under the £50k cap.