Fraser Nelson

The News of the World has conducted one of its marginal seat polls, in 192 Labour-held constituencies – details here. Taken Wednesday through Friday, it indicates Cameron is on course for a 78-seat majority with a 15-point lead. As is normal when a party is ahead by such a margin, the Tories are credited with better policies across the board. The Tory vote is slightly harder in the marginals – 62 percent say they’re certain to vote, v 56 percent for Labour supporters. But the good news for Brown in that only 36 percent think he should step down and 58 percent think he should carry on. No real alternate leader emerges, which I always attribute to a lack of name recognition. But this is still powerful in keeping a Labour mutiny at bay.

It’s confirmed: Sir Ian Blair is offski. The world heard it here first at 2.10pm - we pipped Iain Dale to it by about a minute. We ran it as a rumour. The Times and The Sun followed with firmer reports about ten minutes later. See we offer it all here - the best coffee and the hottest gossip. And there’s more. Boris doesn’t have the powers to sack Blair but after today’s Daily Mail splash he applied as much pressure as he could, including threats of what would happen when he took over chairing the MPA, which he will soon. Ian Blair went running to Jacqui Smith for protection, but she told him to forget it. So now the favourites to take over: Sir Hugh Orde, currently Chief Constable at the Police Service of Northern Ireland. He’s ex-Met.

While David Cameron is keeping his head over the credit crunch, Gordon Brown appears to be losing his. If he wants to “save” the Lloyds-HBOS deal he should stay well away from it. The Lloyds shareholders will see no greater sign of alarm than Brown’s endorsement. His blaming of America for the credit crunch looks desperate: if a house of cards collapses, do you blame the gust of wind, or the construction? Cameron is speaking directly to the public here, and his “decade of debt” narrative is one with which the indebted British household will be only too familiar.

Today on Daily Politics, David Cameron was again asked about Lord Ashcroft’s tax status – is the party vice-president, the guru of the marginal seats campaign, registered to pay tax in this country? As ever, Cameron had no answer – “You’ll have to ask him about his own tax status,” he replied. He knows this reply looks shifty and evasive and the Ashcroft Problem is one which Channel Four Dispatches look at this evening. I’m interviewed as part of it. I say in the documentary that the party owes Ashcroft a great deal. He’s a billionaire who could do anything with his life. For kicks, he goes helps Tories win seats and trounce socialists, and you have to admire that - if you’re not a Labour MP in a marginal seat, that is.

The debt Gordon Brown has saddled his country with deserves to be a top political as well as financial issue, as The Times powerfully argues in a leader today. Gordon Brown has over the last week been on a mission to airbrush Northern Rock out of the national accounts. He has claimed repeatedly—and mendaciously—that he’s taken debt as a share of GDP from 44% to 37%. The Times in its leader today gets it precisely right. Not only does it use the correct net debt figure – 43.3% in August – but it goes on to lambaste Brown. “This parlous financial position is a direct political legacy. A government of genuine prudence might have put money in the bank at the top of the cycle to pay for the bills at the bottom.

When I was at the Fabian Society debate last Sunday with Ed Balls, the subject of taxing the rich came up. I warned them they were chasing a false God, that it will result in less tax yield. The rich will have less incentive to earn more, and more incentive to dodge tax. I gave a figure which one of those in the audience later accused me of making up. It’s pivotal to understanding how this country is financed, so here it is… The richest 1% of this country pay 23% of all income tax collected (table here) in 2008-09. The richest 5% pay 42% of the tax. These ratios should warm the heart of the most ardent redistributionist. Brown’s wise refusal to raise the top rate of tax has seen the richest shoulder a greater share of the burden. In 1999-00 these ratios were 21.