Fraser Nelson

In opposition, one of David Cameron’s strengths was the speed at which he dumped bad ideas. But, now, he is starting to acquire a habit for U-Turns – especially those called for by minor celebs. We’ve seen Scottish school milk, NHS Direct, BookStart, school sport – and soon, I suspect, forests, World Service cuts and (the biggie) NHS reform. A depressing pattern is emerging: anyone with a decent two-day campaign and a splattering of celebrities can probably force a concession out of the government. I make this case in my News of the World column (£) today. Here is a summary of my main argument. 1. Cameron seems to be pioneering the Celeb-induced U-Turn.

What to think about Egypt? Pick up most newspapers and you see a flood of words, but a trickle of information. Not so with this week’s Spectator, which has everything you need to know - and nothing more. Here are some pieces that I thought may interest CoffeeHousers. 1.  What you need to know. Our lead feature is an interview with a dozen people who know their onions. Anne Applebaum on whether it can be compared to Poland, Charles Glass on fifty years of Egyptian dictators, Douglas Murray on neo-conservatism and Islamism, Professor Stephen Walt on the geopolitical fallout and Andrew Roberts on the alarming power of the Cairo mob. 2. What to make of the Muslim Brotherhood. John R Bradley didn’t just predict the Egyptian uprising but wrote a book on it.

It will have been a quiet morning in the Balls household. Fresh economic indicators suggest that the British economy is not in some cuts-induced recession but, instead, doing rather nicely, thank-you. As I said last week, economic health is assessed by all manner of indices – and the ONS (which is forever having to tear up its GDP forecasts) might just have boobed last week with its preliminary Q4 GDP figures. Today we have the Manufacturing PMI surging to heights not even reached in the early 1990s:   Now, this might be a flash in the pan, you say. But then consider corporate liquidity – that is, how much debt Britain’s companies have lurking on their balance sheets. The figures out today are not too bad either.

The Guardian’s Sarfraz Manzoor was on Aled Jones's show on Radio Two this morning (titter ye not – it’s great Sunday music) discussing how members of his Muslim family shunned him after he married a Christian. He had this to say: “It hasn’t made me doubt my faith. What it’s made me do is feel angry that some people are so closed-minded that they don’t even understand their faith. Before our wedding I spoke to a Muslim expert, an imam. He told me that a Muslim can marry a Jewish person, a Christian person – we’re all children of Abraham. It’s all fine. The problem is that parents and families are not experts in religion. They’re just experts in their own opinion.

"Recession here we come, a snow-dabbed double-dip" tweeted Faisal Islam, Channel Four's economics editor. He summed up much of the hysterical reaction. It may spoil a good story, but here is what I suspect the broadcasters won't tell you today. 1. Erratic GDP swings are common when recovering from a recession. Remember how stunned everyone was with the surging quarter three data? Now, we're all shocked by plunging quarter four figures. I'd advise CoffeeHousers to treat these two imposters just the same. After the 80s recession, quarterly growth rates swung between -0.7 percent and 1.5 percent. Following the ERM-induced recession in the 90s, growth rates swung between -0.2 percent and 0.5 percent. A swallow does not make a summer.

So, who’s next after Andy Coulson? This question is oddly important, and will certainly influence the direction of his government. It shouldn’t, but you have to understand the way the Cameron operation works – and of how life looked before George Osborne persuaded Coulson to come on board (hoodie hugging, husky-riding, etc). Coulson was an advocate of fundamental conservative values (crime, tax cuts, Europe) and emphasised their mass appeal. Tim Montgomerie has a list of possibles for this job. But how to persuade them? Whoever does it can kiss goodbye to their life (and family) for the duration. No.10 is a pressure oven, and there’s a horribly large chance that you’ll turn out like Alastair Campbell.

Balls is back. The author of Gordon Brown's economic policies for 15 years. The man who bears more responsibility for anyone else - other than Brown - for the asset bubble and the consequent crash. But I suspect that, right now, Theresa May is doing cartwheels and George Osborne cursing. Balls, for all his many drawbacks, is the most ferocious attack dog there is. His brilliance (and I hate using that word) at using numbers as weapons far surprassed anything the Tories could manage in Opposition. His policies are reckless: to borrow, and to hell with the consequences. His modus operandi is to launch around-the-clock attacks. He has powerful media contacts, and uses them to full effect. He is the most able fighter in Labour's frontbench, as he proved in the leadership contest.

How big does inflation have to get before our politicians admit that it’s a problem? Once again, it has “surprised” on the upside - the CPI index stood at 3.7 percent for December, against a supposed target of 2.0 percent. And the RPI index, which the nation called “inflation” until Gordon Brown asked the media to use CPI instead, is running at 4.8 percent - almost twice its former target of 2.5 percent. That is the painfully high figure to which George Osborne has just added a juicy VAT increase, which is bound to take CPI above 4 percent. Inflation has been above target for three of the last four years - and still Mervyn King says it’s a blip. This is how he justifies the UK’s low interest rates (0.