Fabian Hoffmann

A recent report by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) argues that within the next decade, Russian missile defences may be able to stop a British and French nuclear strike. Russia’s strategic missile defences remain extremely limited in number and are concentrated largely around Moscow Britain is right to be concerned about this. After all, nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantor of a country’s safety and territorial integrity. It is right, therefore, that we remain vigilant to any attempts to neutralise them. That said, the current state of Russia’s ballistic missile defences, and its likely future advancements, show little sign that a major shift in the nuclear balance of power in Europe is underway. Stopping any type of ballistic missile is a difficult task.

On 27 March, the Houthis launched two ballistic missiles at Israel. It also reportedly launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range one-way attack drones at US Navy warships in the region, including the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier. The attack likely came in response to a series of US air and naval strikes against Houthi forces and military infrastructure in Yemen. These US strikes are part of a broader effort to degrade the Houthis’ ability to threaten international shipping in the Red Sea. What is notable about the Houthi attack is that it occurred in broad daylight.

This week, Russia launched a missile attack on Dnipro, Ukraine, reportedly using a new medium-range ballistic missile named ‘Oreshnik’, as confirmed yesterday by President Putin. Putin stated that the missile attack was a response to Ukraine's use of western-built missile systems inside Russia, including US-supplied ATACMS ballistic missiles and British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Before this confirmation, speculation arose that Russia might have launched an intercontinental-range ballistic missile. This claim was initially reported by President Zelensky the morning after the attack, who noted that the missile’s flight path characteristics matched those of an intercontinental-range ballistic missile.

Last night, Iran launched a large-scale missile strike against Israel, dubbed ‘Operation True Promise II’. According to the latest reports, the attack involved approximately 180 ballistic missiles, making it one of the largest missile assaults in history. Iranian officials stated that the attack was in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in late July, the killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon last week, and Israel’s broader conduct in the region in recent months. Details about the attack, including its targets and the damage caused, remain murky at this time. But it seems that Iran targeted Nevatim airbase, Tel Nof airbase, and the headquarters of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service.

Vladimir Putin has announced that Moscow’s nuclear doctrine will be adjusted, telling a group of senior officials that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it is attacked using conventional weapons.  Inevitably there is concern that Putin could resort to a nuclear strike on Europe if western assistance to Ukraine crosses certain red lines. Putin’s remarks took place on 25 September, when the Russian Security Council held a meeting to discuss Russia’s nuclear deterrence posture. The Russian President said that the doctrine will be updated so that if a non-nuclear state attacks with the cooperation of a nuclear state, it will be seen as a joint attack.