Edward Howell

When an estimated 10,000 North Korean troops were deployed to Russia’s Kursk region in October 2024, it was a reality few observers had predicted. A handful of months later, in January and February the following year, this number would be topped up by as many as a further 4,000 men, as the hermit kingdom sought to signal it was going all out in assisting the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. With North Korea and Russia now in a solidified alliance bound by a mutual security pact, we should not be surprised at the recent claim by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia plans to accept an additional 30,000 North Korean troops later this year.

North Korea’s ninth party congress, held this week, was little more than a rubber-stamping exercise. That much was clear when the Chinese premier Xi Jinping congratulated Kim Jong-un on his re-election as the general secretary of the Workers’ party of Korea. But we would be wrong to dismiss this gathering as merely symbolic. The last time North Korea held such a congress, in January 2021, Kim outlined a shopping list of desired weapons and missiles. Since then, North Korea has tested or obtained each item. All this week's congress did was cement North Korea’s self-perceived status as a nuclear-armed state.

South Korean presidents have gained infamy for meeting untimely fates, whether death, imprisonment or suicide. And now, former president Yoon Suk-yeol is the latest addition to this list. Earlier today, the man whose presidency will go down in history for his abortive declaration of martial law on 3 December 2024 was sentenced to life in prison on account of masterminding an insurrection. Supporters and detractors of South Korea’s thirteenth president gathered outside Seoul’s central district court to hear the fate of the leader they either loved or loathed – a fate which was also broadcast on live television to the Korean nation. This sight – and today’s decision – hammers home the fact that South Korean politics won't become any less polarised anytime soon.

Think of the death penalty and North Korea’s executions of individuals convicted of so-called 'anti-state crimes' may spring to mind. The resilient democracy of South Korea, however, probably would not. Nevertheless, this week has seen South Korean prosecutors call for the country's former president, Yoon Suk Yeol, to be handed the most extreme of all punishments for his notorious declaration of martial law on 3 December 2024. At the first of his four trials this morning, the former president was handed a five-year prison sentence for having ‘plunged the country into political crisis’.

As Kim Jong-un himself announced at a New Year’s Eve event in Pyongyang, 2025 was an 'unforgettable year' for North Korea. During the final weekend of the year, the Supreme Leader supervised a 'nuclear-capable' long-range strategic cruise missile test, which he termed an 'exercise of war deterrence' against the 'security threats' facing Pyongyang. The test followed a week of oily letters between Kim and his new best friend, none other than Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader lauded the 'heroic dispatch' of North Korean troops to assist Russia’s war against Ukraine as an example of the 'militant fraternity' between Pyongyang and Moscow.

The regime of North Korea has continued to exploit the war in Ukraine to spread its propaganda. This week we learnt that Ukrainian children, abducted by Russia, are being sent to an infamous North Korean summer camp. The children have reportedly been taught to ‘destroy Japanese imperialists’ and heard from North Korean soldiers who destroyed the USS Pueblo, a spy ship captured and sank by North Korea in 1968.  This Ukrainian children have been at the Songdowon International Children’s Camp, located near the port city of Wonsan on the country’s east coast.

As President Trump sets off on his East Asian tour, all eyes will be on the bilateral summits that the US president will hold. After all, Trump has made no secret of his preference for tête-à-têtes over multilateralism. With a meeting with Xi Jinping scheduled in South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, the question of whether Trump will meet Little Rocket Man is unsurprisingly pervading, not least given how few details have been revealed as to Trump’s agenda. Although such a meeting, whether at the Demilitarized Zone or otherwise, seems unlikely at a time when US-North Korea relations are poor, nothing can be ruled out. Nevertheless, whilst the first Trump administration taught the world to expect the unexpected, Trump 2.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, once again declared earlier this wek that he would only welcome peace talks with the United States if Washington dropped its ‘denuclearisation obsession’. Responding several hours later, South Korean president Lee Jae-myung stressed that Seoul would accept a deal between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump in which Pyongyang agreed to freeze its nuclear programme. Yet, even if Kim and Trump were to eventually enter into negotiations, one look at the hermit kingdom’s past behaviour suggests that any such ‘freeze’ will not mean an abandonment of Kim Jong-un’s ultimate objective: for North Korea to be recognised as a nuclear-armed state.

Think of the first Trump administration’s North Korea policy, and the bright lights, photo ops and eventual lack of deals in Singapore and Hanoi come to mind. The first two years of Trump 1.0 saw the then-new US president fluctuate between threatening "fire and fury" on the hermit kingdom to calling Kim Jong-un a "great leader". Yet, the recent and as-of-yet unconfirmed revelations of an abortive US mission in early 2019 – wherein US Navy SEALs sought to intercept communications of Kim Jong-un – may seem to contradict the unusual bromance between Trump and Kim at the time. But in fact, they only emphasize Trump’s desperation for a deal with North Korea at the time.