Damian Thompson

Heywood and Middleton is a far worse result for Labour than for the Tories: we can agree on that, surely. Clacton is grim for Dave, of course, but I'm interested in what happens in the rotten Labour heartlands. Here's something else for Ed Miliband to worry about: the SNP. Loathsome party, humiliated last month, but so angry and looking for revenge. The turnout in Scotland come the general election will surely be higher than usual. And much of it will be made up of occasional voters energised by the referendum. The SNP won't take safe Labour seats: they're hugely behind – we're talking 20-point margins. But the electorate has changed. Peter Kellner reckons the Nats could capture 26 seats, which is fanciful.

The former Bishop of Rochester, Dr Michael Nazir-Ali, has agreed to talk to members of Ukip about 'Magna Carta and the Perfectly Virtuous Pages of our History’. I blogged earlier about the bishop's bravery in calling on Rome to defend Christians from Islamism, and in the process endorsed the Catholic Ordinariate for ex-Anglicans. But this demonstrates courage of an entirely different order. The Church of England is divided on the subject of bloodthirsty radical Islam but of one mind when it comes to Ukip: They're the BNP in blazers and that's that. Vicars know perfectly well that members of their congregations will vote for Britain's new third party next year but they'd rather not think about it.

Well! Jonathan Freedland of the Guardian was impressed by David Cameron's conference speech and no mistake. The campaign for 2015 has begun. On Wednesday, in what may well have been his sharpest, most effective speech since becoming prime minister, David Cameron fired the starting gun. In the process, he lodged at least a couple of deadly bullets into the flesh of his Labour opponents. The result – whatever the polls might say – is that after a fortnight of duelling party conferences, Cameron’s Conservative troops believe they are marching towards a contest in which they now hold the advantage. That’s partly down to what the prime minister did in Birmingham. But it owes just as much to what Ed Miliband failed to do a week ago. Indeed, the two are intimately linked.

Professor Tom Gallagher, a Scottish Catholic historian, wrote a post here yesterday accusing the Catholic hierarchy of Scotland of covertly supporting the Yes campaign. Now there are two pieces of evidence to support his claim. The first is a letter from Archbishop Philip Tartaglia of Glasgow to departing First Minister Alex Salmond. Never have I witnessed a senior cleric suck up to a politician so shamelessly. Truly he has earned Private Eye's Order of the Brown Nose (OBN). Dear First Minister, You have announced your decision to step down as First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the Scottish National Party. On behalf of the Bishops Conference of Scotland, I want to acknowledge your long and outstanding career in politics, and your distinguished service as First Minister of Scotland.

British public opinion has never really turned against Muslims. According to Pew’s 2014 Global Attitudes survey, 26 per cent of us have ‘unfavourable’ attitudes towards Muslims in this country; compare that to 46 per cent in Spain, 53 per cent in Greece and 63 per cent in Italy. Our national tolerance has, so far, proved robust. Even after the 7/7 London bombings, favourable attitudes towards Muslims in Britain dipped by only a couple of points. But is it strong enough to survive the horrors of Isis and Rotherham coming to light simultaneously? It feels as if we are on the verge of an anti-Muslim backlash that could spread beyond the strongholds of the aggrieved white working class in Barking and Rochdale and into the home counties.

Satire died when Henry Kissinger won the Nobel Peace Prize, said Tom Lehrer. Now irony has followed it to the grave. GQ's Philanthropist of the Year is Tony Blair. And no, this isn't some cunning wind-up by the magazine. They gave the former PM a bauble at a ceremony last night. I'd like to say that Blair looks suitably embarrassed holding it, but nope. Neither he nor the lady wife 'do' embarrassment. Even nice Gary Lineker had a go at GQ on Twitter. ‘People will be greatly concerned and wonder if this was the right decision,’ he tweeted when the news came through. They will indeed wonder. Employing four-letter words, I suspect. I would love to have been at the Condé Nast meeting at which this one was agreed.

I rejoiced at the news of Douglas Carswell's defection to Ukip. Not because I'm a Ukip supporter (I haven't made up my mind) but because it highlights the slippery dishonesty of the Tories' modernisation programme – 'the political equivalent of botox', as Charles Moore puts it in today's Telegraph: The pattern of the leader’s actions conveys a message to party workers: they are the problem. Not surprisingly, they tend to leave. Instead of being a renewal, modernisation has become a hollowing out. Douglas Carswell, by contrast, is authentically a moderniser. At the heart of Carswell's vision for Britain lies the expansion of the franchise and political accountability.