Usa

One of the greatest prizes from Brexit is the opportunity to make the Global Britain aspiration a reality. Included is a leadership role at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) where the UK, the fifth biggest economy in the world, could help drive much-needed progress to facilitate global trade. Leadership, however, requires respect to back it up. In trade terms, that means walking the talk of trade liberalisation at home. Once free of the EU, the UK knows that its thriving farming sector will therefore require access to global markets. But the trade agreements to deliver that access must be consistent with WTO rules. Recent talk of the UK adopting a tiered tariff system, based on perceptions of animal welfare and health standards, would be a direct breach of those rules.

The US economy created 2.5 million jobs last month – the biggest monthly jobs gain since records began a century ago, albeit only a partial recovery from the 22 million jobs lost during lockdown. These figures have blown expectations out of the water. Economists were predicting yet more unemployment: the consensus was unemployment reaching 8.3 million, or 20 per cent in May, up from 14.7 per cent in April. Defying the odds, unemployment actually fell to 13 per cent, signalling an unexpectedly early start in the rebounding of the American economy. The biggest winners were workers in hospitality, who made up almost half of the new jobs, followed by construction.

It may be the ultimate Kissinger Dilemma: Donald Trump versus the platform that helped make Donald Trump president. Contemplating war between Iraq and Iran, Henry Kissinger is said to have mused: ‘It's a pity they can't both lose.’ It’s a pity Trump and Twitter can’t both lose their current skirmish. On Wednesday, the social media publisher that pretends it’s not a publisher attached a fact-check to a Trump tweet. The President had posted: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1265255835124539392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Trump is concerned that ballot impropriety might cost him re-election, rather than his Covid-19 response or the absence of a wall on the Mexican border.

In Britain and America, the employment news is grim. Nearly a million Brits – 850,000 more than usual – have applied for Universal Credit in the last fortnight. While in the United States, unemployment has reached an historic high. As of the end of last week, 6.6 million people claimed for out-of-work benefits. This is the highest increase in adjusted seasonal claims on record and is made even more astonishing when you consider that just four weeks ago fewer than 200,000 people applied for jobless benefits.  With every day that goes by, the health implications of Covid-19 are becoming clearer, as are the economic effects.

No one has modelled an economic lockdown before: no one knows what to expect. But the daily data is shocking, and points to a huge economic effect. In Britain, nearly 500,000 people applied for welfare (Universal Credit) over the last nine days. In America, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits surged to an unprecedented three million last week.  What has yet to be calculated (but urgently needs to be) is the human cost of all this We simply have not seen anything like this before, not even during the financial crash: the Covid crash has led to 3,283,000 claims - quadruple the previous record-high of around 700,000 in 1982.

On Monday, the Department for International Trade released its negotiating objectives for a UK-USA free trade agreement. The 184-page document explains in detail what the UK wants to get out of a trade deal with America. The British government will try to angle the talks, which begin this month, towards securing a comprehensive arrangement - that is, a deal that covers a broad range of areas including digital, finance, tech, manufacturing and agriculture. If secured, it estimates this could translate into a £3.4 billion boost to the UK economy. The government has put its 'leveling up' agenda at front and centre of these trade talks, laying out how each region potentially stands to gain from securing a deal with the USA.