Ukraine invasion

As Russia’s war in Ukraine rages into its eleventh month, there is one country that can truly be said to have learned its lesson: Poland. By the mid-2030s, when the majority of its equipment purchases have been delivered, Warsaw will command one of the most modern, well-equipped armies in Europe. It’s not cheap, but Poland is taking decisive action to be able to face the threats of tomorrow. Poland's $20.5 billion 2023 defense budget is a huge increase over the previous year, and is over 3 percent of gross domestic product (well above the NATO-suggested 2 percent). Aside from equipment, this money will be used to help expand the manpower that Poland can bring to bear, upping its active-duty forces from 140,000 to 300,000 troops.

When Volodymyr Zelensky entered the chamber to address Congress, the applause and cheers took on a particularly emotional character. It was not the stilted, forced applause that the president receives at the State of the Union; it was an affectionate show of admiration for a man who has come to embody the twenty-first century struggle for freedom. Though delivered to Congress, the opening words of the Ukrainian president’s speech revealed his true audience: “Dear Americans... all those who value freedom and justice.” It was a speech for all of us. He pulled the dusty tarp off of America’s deepest identity as the shining light of liberty in a world of tyranny.

Washington will provide Patriot missiles to Ukraine, bolstering Kyiv's air defenses in the new year. This is welcome news — but it should have happened a long time ago. One word best characterizes the Biden administration’s response to the war in Ukraine: reactive. The president’s lack of proactive measures both gives Putin an edge and prevents Ukraine from achieving a swift victory. US weapons began arriving in Ukraine in December 2021 from a $60 million package approved in August, with another package worth $200 million being approved in December and arriving in January. Both lacked the firepower needed to deter Moscow. The administration knew by October 2021 that Putin might invade — and that Russia had been building up forces around Ukraine since the spring.

Lviv, Ukraine I write by candlelight from a centuries-old coffeehouse on a snowy day, even though the electricity is working. Lviv is a history-loving city that likes to live by candlelight, so they are not panicking about sporadic power losses. But today, when my apartment here had no heat, it was clearer than ever to me: Russia is seeking to break the Ukrainian people this winter. Why? Because the Kremlin knows that in Ukraine: the people and not the government are in charge. I wish those people in the West, especially in America, who talk about freedom realized the radical nature of Ukrainian democracy. Influential Americans in media and politics often talk about how “the Kyiv regime” needs to negotiate in order to bring about peace.

The world's eyes have been on America this week, thanks to the midterms. Cockburn, however has been gazing across the Atlantic with amusement. A new dance class is being offered in Germany called "Let’s Move — Tanzt Euch Warm," or "dance yourselves warm," to combat rising energy costs as the temperature falls. https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1590588816716242944 Watching the footage of the chilly krauts cha-cha-cha-ing, Cockburn can’t help but recall former president Donald Trump’s speech to the United Nations back in 2018, where he warned that "Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy." At the time, the German delegation laughed and shook their heads at what they considered yet another absurd broadside from the American president. https://twitter.

It was 11:15 p.m. in Kyiv, just after the curfew, and the military had set up its checkpoints on the city streets. Finding your way home after hours can be a hazardous business. The city is paranoid about assassins and saboteurs, and in wartime few are above suspicion. Things were looking ominous until my friend Sasha declared: “we are late for breakfast.” The guards waved us through. This was the daily password, shared with those important enough to move around after curfew. Checkpoints and curfews were a few reminders of the war in Kyiv, where I was just before last week’s deadly air strikes. In the capital city, life was approaching some form of normalcy.

Can Ukraine sustain a war effort that is proceeding far better than most military analysts ever expected? Part of that answer, of course, depends on the extent to which the Ukrainian army can keep their troops in the field equipped, supplied, and motivated. That challenge comes as the Russian military increasingly relies on so-called “kamikaze drones” to strike deep into Ukrainian territory (on October 17, a Russian drone attack killed four people in Kyiv during the morning rush hour). But another factor that will determine success or failure is whether Europe remains onboard — or, more to the point, whether Europe’s support to Kyiv will continue as the war enters a dreary, unforgiving winter.

Last Friday, President Biden signed a spending bill that will keep the government’s lights on until December 16, when lawmakers will have to cobble together a funding resolution to avert a shutdown. Tucked into that law was another tranche of security and economic assistance to Ukraine, to the tune of $12.3 billion. The signing came two days after the Defense Department announced the release of an additional $1.1 billion military package for Kyiv, which will include 18 more HIMARS systems, 150 armored vehicles, and ammunition of various calibers. The Biden administration has provided the Ukrainians with over $16 billion in security assistance since Russia’s invasion in February. Washington’s hands have been cramping up from writing so many checks.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the UN Security Council today with all the anguish you would expect from a wartime commander-in-chief, he could nonetheless be relatively pleased about several things. Sure, Zelensky and his advisers are constantly making the point that Ukraine needs bigger and better weapons to resist Russia’s invasion, but the West has been quite responsive to Kyiv’s requests. The Biden administration’s latest weapons shipment, announced last week, adds to the $1.6 billion in military aid the US has sent to the Ukrainian military since the war broke out on February 24.