Uk politics

Thursday

James Forsyth

Why my money is on Balkenende

From our UK edition

When it comes to the position of the first European President, the worst thing to be is the frontrunner as Tony Blair found out the other week. As soon as you emerge as the favourite, everyone concentrates on why you might not be suitable for the job. So, I suspect that Herman Van Rompuy, the Belgian PM and current frontrunner, will not end up getting the job. It is hard to see how Britain could accept a candidate who is a federalist and aspires to EU-wide taxes. Also, as a friend who has his ear to the ground on these matters just told me, the rest of Europe will be unwilling to look like they just rolled over when the French and the Germans suggested a candidate.   But if not Van Rompuy who? Well, tucked up nicely on the rails is the Dutch PM Jan Peter Balkenende.

Mark Bathgate

Fatal inexperience

From our UK edition

The Government debt mountain grew by a further £11.4billion in October. The UK now has one of the most expensive governments in the European Union – now materially above the Eurozone average and within touching distance of France and Sweden in spending above 50% of GDP.  Blaming large Government per se for economic problems is overly simplistic – larger Government spending countries like Sweden and Finland have managed to build export market shares and provided stock market returns over the past couple of decades that put the UK to shame. Spain now has thousands of miles of high speed railways and over 50% of their energy needs come from renewables.

David Blackburn

They think it’s all over | 19 November 2009

From our UK edition

It looks like curtains for ‘President’ Blair. Every commentator besides Adam Boulton and James MacIntyre, who is possessed of a ruinous gambling streak, have now virtually written off the former PM. Blair has an uncanny knack of winning through against the odds, so I will not call time on his chances quite yet. But with Merkel and Sarkozy united against him, the fat lady is warming up for the main event with a few scales and arpeggios. Where would failure leave Blair with regard to Labour and the election?

Peter Hoskin

A phonecall to Kelly looks better than not mentioning expenses

From our UK edition

If you want a measure of how disastrous yesterday's Queen's Speech was for Gordon Brown, you need only pay heed to two things.  First, today's news coverage, which is almost universally negative for the PM.  Even the FT, which is usually quite forgiving of Brown, launches an acerbic attack on the "shameless politicking" in the speech.  And that's before we get onto numerous stories about discontent on the left, as well as unflattering write-ups by political columnists across the political spectrum. The second is David Cameron's interview on the Today programme this morning.

David Blackburn

Hoist by his own petard

From our UK edition

The Queen’s Speech contained some worthwhile bills. Parents will face orders when a child breaches antisocial behaviour rules, and the Flood and Water Maintainence Bill, whilst unlikely to rival the 1911 Parliament Act in the annals of Westminster, is welcome, responsible legislation. I can even see that if you’re that way inclined, which I’m not, Harman’s Equality Bill has something to commend it. The remainder of the programme is a political landmine, presenting benevolences that mask incendiary conceits. Clever politics theoretically, but in the rush to prime the fuses, and with little thought for these bills’ practical application, this incomparable government has blown itself up.

Wednesday

Lloyd Evans

A paper-thin Queen’s Speech

From our UK edition

Even before the Queen had trundled back to Buckingham Palace, Mandy had let the cat out of the bag. Speaking on BBC News he said of the Gracious Speech, ‘All these laws are relevant … and achievable. It will be for the public to decide whether they want them or not.’  There you have it. The greatest power in the land admits the Queen’s Speech is Labour’s manifesto. The response to the Gracious Speech is an enjoyably ragged parliamentary occasion, full of ancient traditions and even more ancient jokes. Frank Dobson proposed the Humble Address and spoke with pride about his Holborn constituency where the anti-Apartheid movement had been born.

Fraser Nelson

Britain’s AWOL ally

From our UK edition

Cameron just made a very good point in his speech – namely, that Brown claimed just days ago that Obama would make an Afghanistan announcement in the “next few days”. Now, we have no idea when the announcement will come. But this isn't Gordon Brown’s fault – it’s Obama’s. The way Washington is treating Britain is deplorable and the subject of an excellent cover piece tomorrow by Con Coghlin (cover image above). As Con says in his piece: 'The Afghan issue has made clear the astonishing disregard with which Mr Obama treats Britain . As he decides how many more troops to send to Afghanistan – a decision which will fundamentally affect the scope of the mission – Britain is reduced to taking a guess.

David Blackburn

The Prince is playing politics

From our UK edition

Lord Mandelson argues in the Evening Standard that Labour’s legislative programme has the Tories running for cover. The forthcoming debate should prove this thesis to be nonsense. 7 minutes of largely rehashed policies, including all the old favourites – equality, the ‘smarter’ state and so forth, is unlikely to give Cameron sleepless nights. I suspect Mandelson knows this as there is little substance to his argument. The article contains more insinuations than an episode of Midsomer Murders. Mandelson writes:     ‘David Cameron seems to be getting a little rattled. Following his flustered performance at PMQs last week, he seems shocked and disconcerted to be facing a political fight again.

Peter Hoskin

Nothing to see here

From our UK edition

Blink and you missed it.  After seven minutes, the Queen had rattled through the Government's legislative agenda for the next few months.  It was all pretty much as expected – although it’s worth noting the “council of financial stability,” made up of the Treasury, the Bank of England and FSA, chaired by the Chancellor, and which was first mooted back in July.  The question is whether any of this will connect with the public.  I rather doubt it. We’ll put footage on Coffee House as soon as it’s available.

Peter Hoskin

Last chance saloon

From our UK edition

So what to make of today's Queen's Speech?  Myself, I'm finding it hard to drum up much excitement.  After all, we already know most of its contents (if you want a primer, then check out this excellent Guardian summary article here), and much of it is either underwhelming, unworkable or – as everyone from David Cameron to Michael White has pointed out – self-servingly political on Labour's part.  Tory peers are saying that they'll block the proposals, but you've got to doubt whether they'll be enacted before the next election anyway.  All in all, Danny Finkelstein's analysis is attractive.  As he puts it: "who cares?" But there is one sense in which this Queen's Speech matters.

David Blackburn

Things are as they seem

From our UK edition

Steve Richards writes a stirring defence for what is likely to be Labour’s last legislative programme. Richards argues that if you suspend your disbelief and ignore everything you have read about current political situation and you will see not a tired, regressive government but a radical political force. ‘Perhaps none of the proposals will be implemented by the election. Maybe they will all turn into dust, but they mark a departure from cautious incremental approaches usually adopted by the Government. The Conservatives' equivalent proposals have an echo with the mid 1990s, while their Euro-scepticism takes us further back, and their plans for spending cuts to 1981.

Daniel Korski

Afghanistan: air fares, not infantry needed

From our UK edition

The British government’s policy on Afghanistan has a spasmodic, yet regular kind of rhythm to it. The issue pops up at intervals, hovers menacingly over Brown’s premiership until the PM awakes from a period of inaction. He then goes into hyper-drive, promises all manner of things, and reverts to inactive type a few days later only to repeat the routine a some days/weeks/months [cross out as appropriate] afterwards.  This time is no different. While the government, along with our allies, wait around for the US president to make up his mind on an Afghanistan (and, by extension, how his first term will be remembered), the PM has been overflowing with schemes and speeches.

Tuesday

Mark Bathgate

The gathering storm

From our UK edition

The UK inflation rate again “surprised” to the upside today, registering at 1.5%. As the above chart shows, the UK now has by some margin the highest inflation rate in G7. Were it not for the temporary VAT cut – which takes about 1% off the current CPI rate – the rate would be moving quickly above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. It would seem that the deflation threat, used as justification for the Bank of England deciding to finance the Government’s deficit this year through printing money, has not transpired. A severe recession and rise in unemployment has hit the economy, but this seems to be one where wages stagnate but the prices of what we consume continue to rise.

Peter Hoskin

Your chance to grade Gordon

From our UK edition

The public's judgement on Gordon Brown will probably come with the general election, but CoffeeHousers may have fun with this webpage in the meantime.  It has been created by the clean-up-politics organisation Power 2010, and will let you grade Gordon Brown in the aftermath of tomorrow's Queen's speech.  Naturally, the grades run from A ("Top of the class") to F ("Brown fail"); you can leave comments; and Gordon will receive a school report in December.  I suppose it's meant to help close the democratic deficit between Downing St and the rest of the country – but it could just help some folk let off a little steam...

David Blackburn

The liberal centre’s continuing confusion on challenging the BNP

From our UK edition

My recent post about the BNP has offended liberals as well as the hard right. Liberal Conspiracy’s Sunny Hundal writes: ‘David is highly confused. This is because he says: "The Spectator has maintained that the party’s domestic policies are inspired by racial supremacist ideology and that its economic policies are like Dagenham – that is, three stops beyond Barking." Yes, I’ll agree with that. The party’s domestic policies are indeed inspired by a racial supremacist ideology. Which is why people should avoid following those policies right? Except, he does on to say centrist parties “must engage with (and I mean engage with, not shout down)” BNP policies. What a muddle.

Peter Hoskin

Brown misjudges the Afghanistan waiting game

From our UK edition

There's something futile about Gordon Brown's and, now, David Miliband's speeches on Afghanistan.  After all, the world is still waiting to hear what Obama's strategy is for the country.  Will he increase troop numbers – and by how much?  What does he actually want to achieve with them?  Until that's known, it's a little premature to talk about a "comprehensive political framework" for handing security responsibilities over to the Afghan army. Worse, though, the PM's statements may actually be damaging.  Sure, it's frustrating that the US President is leaving his allies hanging.

David Blackburn

The SNP flees for the hills

From our UK edition

Last week, I argued that the Glasgow North East by-election would force the SNP to alter its tactics. The Scottish press are reporting that Salmond will scrap his plans for a straight referendum on independence in favour of a multi-option poll on what further powers Holyrood should assume, short of independence. Such a withdrawal was being mooted before the election but has been accelerated by the scale of the SNP’s defeat and its disintegrating confidence. This concession is seen as the only way the SNP minority government can maintain the co-operation of opposition parties on the issue. Only, according to the Daily Record, they won’t play ball.

Peter Hoskin

Is Blair’s bid for the EU presidency still alive, after all?

From our UK edition

I still think there are too many hurdles standing in the way of Tony Blair, but it's worth noting this passage from Ben Brogan's latest blog post about our former PM's chances of becoming EU President – particularly the bit I've highlighted in bold: "When the manoeuvring [by EU leaders] is stripped out, who is their first choice [for the EU presidency]? Weirdly, 12 or 13 say Blair. Strip out the ones who are dead against – Belgium, Luxembourg and Austria (now there’s a triple alliance to conjure with – talk about surrender monkeys) – and the Swedes who hold the presidency and that leaves you a sizeable majority and the chance of winning a few more over.

David Blackburn

Cameron fires a broadside at ‘petty’ Brown

From our UK edition

David Cameron has written an apoplectic editorial in the Times condemning Gordon Brown’s partisan hijacking of the Queen’s Speech. Here is the key section: ‘We are mired in the deepest and longest recession since the Second World War, with deep social problems and a political system that is held in contempt. The State Opening of Parliament tomorrow ought to be about radical ideas to deal with this triple crisis. Instead, by all accounts, the Queen’s Speech will be little more than a Labour press release on palace parchment. Don’t take my word for it. As The Times reported yesterday, a Cabinet minister has been boasting about the contents of the speech. What was said? That it was the most ambitious since Labour had come to power?