Uk politics

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

The worries behind falling unemployment

From our UK edition

Expect Labour to make much of today's employment figures, which show that unemployment fell by 7,000 in the three months to last November.  Already, Yvette Cooper has claimed it as a success for "government investment".  While Gordon Brown will surely repeat that message in PMQs. But is it really testament to government action?  Or is it a result of a naturally improving economy (which, let's not forget, is taking longer in the UK than most other developed nations)?  Well, a study commissioned by the Spectator from Oxford Economics found that Brown's "investment" would "save" around 35,000 jobs in 2009 – but then destroy considerably more jobs from this year on.

Peter Hoskin

The Brown brand

From our UK edition

How do politicians achieve that "unspun" look?  Why, by emulating the spin of a soft drinks company, of course.  This from Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian: '[The Labour campaign team have] taken a look at the branding of Innocent smoothies, hoping the authentic, unspun look might fit their own 'unairbrushable' product, G Brown. They were heartened by the reaction to the retouched Cameron poster, which suggests people are sick of the slick trickery associated with the age of Blair.' In which case, here's the Innocent website so you can get an insight into the Brown brand (although I doubt he'll provide two of your five-a-day).

David Blackburn

Drink isn’t the curse of the working classes, but its easy availability is

From our UK edition

It must be stated from the outset - most drinkers are responsible and drink only on special occasions, with other people or by themselves. However, binge drinkers, or that caste of drinker whose evening is neatly rounded-off with a stomach pump, are a minority, albeit a growing one. Relaxed licensing laws and the government’s refusal to strong-arm the drinks industry have led to roving bands of Sally Bercows traversing town centres, and who end the night by falling out of their dresses and into a taxi, or onto a pavement.

Tuesday

David Blackburn

Geoff Hoon, silent assassin

From our UK edition

And so it came to pass that nothing came to pass. Geoff Hoon gave evidence to the Chilcot Inquiry on the same day as a convention of anaesthetists visited the QE Conference Centre. Perhaps their presence contributed to the somnolent proceedings. Beneath the apparent narcolepsy, Hoon made two important points. First, he was convinced that the intelligence contained in the two dossiers established the threat of WMD “beyond doubt”, which will assist Blair when he gives evidence, especially after Alastair Campbell’s recent ‘clarification’.

Peter Hoskin

Darling struggles to find consistency

From our UK edition

Alistair Darling's got an interview in today's FT, and you know the story by now.  Yep, the government thinks that borrowing needs to come down drastically; extra growth would go towards cutting the structural deficit; there'll be the "toughest settlement" on public spending for twenty years, only it shouldn't be introduced too quickly; those bankers aren't quite as evil as previously suggested; and so on and so on.  As we've said before, it's certainly an improvement on that fatuous investment-vs-cuts line.  But you've got to wonder whether the public will find it credible, in view of what Brown & Co. have said, and done, in the past.

Peter Hoskin

Another name for the hat

From our UK edition

First there was Ken, then Peter Mandelson, and now Jon Cruddas is the latest name to be linked with Labour's campaign for the London Mayoralty.  According to the Standard, the Dageneham MP is winning "high level backing" to take on Boris in 2012. As James said last week, there's every reason to believe that Cruddas will play an important role on Labour's post-election stage.  Sure, his thinking is diametrically opposed to that of most CoffeeHousers – but at least he has some sort of political vision, more or less well-defined.  That alone distinguishes him from many of his colleagues.  Then throw in his general affability, and it's understandable why Cruddas has perhaps greater influence and stature among Labour backbenchers than ever before.

Fraser Nelson

Rompuy wants the EU to slither onto the world stage

From our UK edition

Well hello there, Rompuy. We haven’t heard much from the new EU president so far – he was upstaged by Barroso at the Copenhagen conference, showing that the EU stage only has room for one super-ego*. But with the Lisbon Treaty ratified, in defiance of public opinion in Britain (and Labour’s manifesto pledge), he now has powers to advance the EU project further. His idea today: the possible development of a "humanitarian rapid reaction force" for the EU. This rung a bell with me. When I did my tour of duty in the Scottish Parliament, this was a goal of the SNP. They want to creep on to the world stage, without asking permission. One step is to send “observers” to various committees. But aid is the softest target.

David Blackburn

The not so steady creep of inflation

From our UK edition

As Mark Bathgate and Fraser warned, the economic crisis now has an added dimension: inflation. The government’s preferred marker, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose to 2.9 percent in December from 1.9 percent in November, which as Andrew Neil notes is the biggest monthly rise in the annual index since records began. And the Retail Prices Index (RPI), used to calculate welfare payments and wage re-negotiations, rose to 2.4 percent from 0.3 percent. The underlying RPI rate rose to 3.8 percent from 2.7 percent.  We are now seeing the long-term effects of Quantitative Easing and the use of debt to finance further government borrowing.

David Blackburn

Labour’s IT bungles cost taxpayers £26bn

From our UK edition

This morning’s Independent contains an almost incredible splash that £26bn has been wasted on IT projects over the last decade. It's a litany of binary bungles - the incompetence: staggering; the forecasting: inept; and the planning (or lack of it): simply shocking. Contending with such absurdity whilst staring down the barrel of a £175bn deficit, you don’t know whether to laugh or cry. Let me take you on a whistle stop tour of dud investments made on our behalf. The major culprits are the NHS’ national IT programme (over budget and late at £12.7bn and used by only 160 health organisations out of £9,000), the MoD’s defence information infrastructure (over budget and late at £7.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Burning bridges

From our UK edition

A noteworthy point from Tim Montgomerie in ConservativeHome's latest general election briefing*: "The Daily Mail continues to blast Labour for neglecting marriage, as in an editorial today. It accuses Labour of being 'deluded' and 'opportunist'. The Conservative policy is praised as 'creditworthy'. The family is one of the top concerns of the paper's Editor, Paul Dacre. Brown is undermining the last hope he had with Dacre by allowing Ed Balls to trash the Tory plan to save the two parent family." Of course, no-one really expects the Mail to turn out for Labour come the election, but – after the attack they launched on Cameron before Christmas – the Tories will certainly welcome a spell of less ambiguous support from the paper.

David Blackburn

Me? Sleight of hand?

From our UK edition

Two weeks ago, Barry Sheerman opened a second front against Brown's premiership by attacking Ed Balls’ appointment of Kathleen Tattersall to Ofqual without a pre-hearing before the Schools select committee. Brown had introduced a requirement that recommended appointments to offices that reported to Parliament be scrutinised by legislators prior to confirmation of their appointment. Sheerman, with characteristic venom, referred to a “sleight of hand”. This afternoon, Balls defended himself and his permanent secretary, arguing that the committee did not object to the appointment when it was made in July 2008, and any rate the pre-hearing was not operational then. I don’t know whose memory is accurate.

Peter Hoskin

A matter of trust

From our UK edition

Oh dear.  Seems like Labour supporters don't have too much faith in their party of choice.  A new poll for PoliticsHome finds that only 47 percent of "natural Labour supporters" believe that their party is either "fairly likely" or "very likely" to fulfill its manifesto pledges.  That's against 77 percent and 75 percent for Tory and Lib Dem supporters, respectively. Of course, you'd probably expect this kind of result for a party which, thanks to 13 years of government, has had plenty of opportunity not to deliver on its promises.  But it still demonstrates just how difficult Brown will find it to convince the public about his "guarantees".

Peter Hoskin

Making social reform affordable

From our UK edition

Last week we heard that the Tory leadership are considering limiting their £20-a-week marriage tax break to make the policy more affordable.  And, today, Iain Duncan Smith outlines just how that might work.  In his latest report for the Centre for Social Justice, he sets out a range of costings for the policy: For all married couples: £3.2 billion For married couples with dependent children or in receipt of Carers Allowance: £1.5bn For married couples with children under 6: £0.9bn For married couples with children aged 0-3, the most important years for a child’s development: £0.

James Forsyth

The Tories’ simple moral purpose

From our UK edition

Education is the area where the Cameron agenda inspires most. The supply-side revolution the Tories are planning to enable, will transform education for the better in this country. This morning, the Tories launched the education section of their draft manifesto at the Walworth Academy in south London, one of the ARK schools.  The event was memorable for a compelling performance by Michael Gove. Gove, speaking with the passion of a preacher, set out the ‘simple moral purpose’ of expanding opportunity that lay behind his education reform proposals. He detailed how the gap between rich and poor grows as children spend longer in school and how more boys at Eton get three As a A-level each year than all the boys on free school meals in the country.

Mark Bathgate

Three steps to cleaning up our toxic banks

From our UK edition

Fraser outlined the problem with the British banks in his earlier post, but I’d like to suggest a three-step solution.   1. To deal with the problem, you have to admit to the problem. This is the First Step for Alcoholics Anonymous 12 step plan but holds true for politics. Say it out loud: the banking system is still broken. It needs fixed, and the process won’t be pretty. There will always be a political temptation to turn a blind eye, as there was in Japan during its ‘lost decade’. 2. Use an objective and credible third party to analyse the ability of banks to withstand losses, and to go through their balance sheet with a fine tooth comb.

David Blackburn

At last, a “brazenly elitist” approach to teacher recruitment

From our UK edition

The next target for the Tories’ policy blitz is teacher recruitment. Cameron will pledge a “brazenly elitist” system with considerable incentives to lure top graduates from law firms and banks and into state school classrooms. What will this entail? Well, holders of degrees of less than a 2:2 will not receive funding for teacher training. Maths and science graduates with firsts or 2:1s from the 25 top universities will have their student loans paid off if they go into teaching; repayment will be staggered to encourage teachers to remain in the profession. The Tories will scrap graduate teaching programmes and replace them with on the job training, modelled on the hugely successful Teach First scheme.

Sunday

David Blackburn

The burka is a symbol of division, but it should not be banned

From our UK edition

On the face of it, Nigel Farage is right: “There is nothing extreme or radical or ridiculous” about banning the burka. It is a manifestation of many British Muslims’ indifference to society; it is an expression of wilful separation and a symbol of a nation riven with cultural division. In the sphere of private behaviour becoming political, the burka engenders intolerance – reactionary Islam’s intolerance of liberal democracy and vice versa. In this atmosphere, writers and politicians of all hues have drawn the same conclusion and there is capital to be extracted (perhaps cynically) by taking the seemingly sensible decision to ban the burka. To do so would be misguided as well as intolerant.

Peter Hoskin

Labour’s policy is a hostage to their internal struggles

From our UK edition

So Gordon is selling himself as a champion of the middle classes.  There is, as various commentators have pointed out, more than a little bit of hyposcrisy about that.  But the thing that strikes me most about our PM's change of tack is how similar it is to Darling's honesty over cuts last weekend.   Like Darling's admission, it represents some sort of progress for Labour: on paper, the politics of aspiration should play better – and have wider appeal – than the crude class war that they've engaged in recently.  But, also like Darling's admission, it highlights just how inconsistent the government have been over the last few months.

James Forsyth

Clegg has one great policy but he doesn’t know how to sell it

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg has one policy that he should be talking about at every opportunity, his plan to make everyone’s first ten thousand pounds of income tax free. It is a radical idea that would lift millions of people out of tax altogether and be a massive step towards making work pay. As one Tory candidate fighting a marginal seat said to me this week, ‘I wish we had something like that to offer people.’ But as Clegg’s appearance on Andrew Marr this morning showed, Clegg doesn’t know how to sell his policy. Rather than emphasising the first ten thousand point, he mainly talked about his plans for a mansion tax and removing the tax breaks on pensions contributions for upper earners.

Peter Hoskin

The insiders bite back

From our UK edition

Another weekend, another set of embarrassing revelations for Gordon Brown.  The Mail on Sunday continues its serialisation of Peter Watt's Inside Out; this time focusing on what Watt wryly describes as Labour's "plans ... for swapping the most electorally successful Labour Prime Minister in our history for Gordon Brown."   Ok, so the Blairite-Brownite wars are nothing new, but this alleged Brown quote, made at the time of the cash-for-honours scandal, deserves adding to the notebook: "Later, rumours swirled in No10 of a furious bust-up between the Chancellor and the Prime Minister. ‘I’ll bring you down with sleaze,’ the Chancellor was said to have yelled.