Uk politics

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Perverse though it sounds, prisons can be a haven for opportunity

From our UK edition

So much of the welfare debate is lost in jargon and the numbingly large and depressing numbers. John Bird, founder of The Big Issue, has just been on The Daily Politics and he condensed the specious waffle into plain but evocative sound bites. ‘You don’t have a broken society without a broken system. The usual suspects come in and advise Blair, Brown and now Cameron that what you need is money for the poor. The poor don’t need more money; the poor need more opportunity.’ Bird admitted that prison made him upwardly mobile. He left it being able to read, write and paint, and was given the confidence to pursue his entrepreneurial instinct.

David Blackburn

Labour still don’t get it

From our UK edition

As Pete asked at the weekend, will Labour ever start love-bombing the Lib Dems? Ed Miliband has mumbled that he wouldn’t oppose a possible Lib-Lab coalition, but that’s about it. According to the irreproachable Lord Mandelson, David Miliband and Ed Balls were opposed to a coalition and presumably remain so. Labour has greeted the government’s Liberal Democrats with jeers and contempt, particularly over the VAT rise, which passed last night without amendment. Now, John Denham, an arch-pluralist who has long dreamt of forming a ‘progressive coalition’, has told the Fabian Review that Nick Clegg would be the price of any Lib-Lab coalition.

David Blackburn

Prison works, but not as well as it might

From our UK edition

Ken Clarke has laid another argument against prison. There is no link, he alleges, between falling crime rates and spiralling prisoner numbers. Well, perhaps not, but it’s quite a coincidence. Clarke has been tasked with the impossible: assuring an easily frightened public that releasing prisoners will not lead to more muggings, robberies and intimidation. There are arguments on both sides. A recent Spectator editorial took the Michael Howard line that prison works and crime costs. The opposition does not contest either of those propositions, just if prison alone is the best way to reduce crime. The outgoing Chief Inspector of Prisons, Dame Anne Owers, argues in the Guardian for investment in remedial programmes.

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson

Balls clutches at straws

From our UK edition

Many CoffeeHousers will have heard Ed Balls' preposterous performance on the Today programme this morning. We have transcribed it below, to put it on the record. Three things jump out at me. The way that Balls is the last purveyor of Brownies, still talking about new jobs when all of the new jobs can be accounted for by immigration. Next, the way he airbrushes his record to strip out all the disasters. It was the Balls-Brown economic model which rigged the Bank of England so it would keep rates artificially low, flooding the economy with dangerously underpriced debt and putting not just the government but the whole economy on a debt binge, as John Humphrys rightly points out.

Henry Featherstone

GP Commissioning will be good for patients and the NHS

From our UK edition

Quite why people are surprised that Andrew Lansley has stuck to his plans to introduce GP Commissioning is a mystery.  I’m struggling to recall one of his speeches or policy documents in recent years where it wasn’t mentioned. Anyway, let’s be clear, widespread control of commissioning budgets by GPs was where the NHS was headed until Frank Dobson took over in 1997 and unravelled a decade’s worth of market based reforms.  Rebuilding that position has taken another decade of circular re-organisations to fix.  No wonder the NHS is ambivalent about reorganisation.   These proposals are, of course, radical.  But they are needed to address the fundamental flaws in the NHS commissioning landscape.

Peter Hoskin

Are the OBR’s growth forecasts too optimistic?

From our UK edition

Much ado about the Office for Budget Responsibility's growth predictions in the Treasury Select Committee earlier, especially as an OBR official admitted that the cuts and tax hikes in the Budget could conceivably tip us into a double-dip recession. So are the OBR's official forecasts too optimistic, as some are now claiming? Only time will tell, but we can get a decent sense of things by comparing them with the independent forecasts that the Treasury collect here. And this is the result: In other words, the OBR growth forecasts stick pretty closely to the average independent forecast, although they are a touch more optimistic. Admittedly, these independent forecasts were collected before the Budget (but after the election), so they may be tweaked in a month or two.

David Blackburn

Hard going for the government

From our UK edition

A tough morning for the government at the hands of Tyrie, Fallon and rest of the Treasury Select Committee. Sir Alan Budd apologised for his naivety, Robert Chote described the Budget as ‘regressive’ in the main and the banking levy has been criticised on the grounds that is de-stabilising banks’ capital bases, which will affect lending. The government would prefer silence on these issues but the damage was far from total. Budd was an interim figure and the spat that has developed around him is largely political – there is no question that Budd was ‘nobbled’. Robert Chote deserves his reputation but he is not infallible. And Treasury Chief Economic Advisor, Dave Ramsden, put paid to the criticism of the banking levy.

David Blackburn

Would Britain buy Balls?

From our UK edition

Asks Iain Martin, and I suspect he’s back in Rentoul territory. It is, nonetheless, a question that merits more than a cursory no in reply. For all his egregiousness, you know where Balls stands: in the crude but distinctive colours of the old left. He is convinced that any approach to spending cuts other than his own will precipitate a double-dip recession. As Iain puts it: ‘Balls is also calculating that the second half of a double-dip recession is on the way and is staking out ground on which he can be the one to proclaim to the country: I told you so.’   In terms of Britain’s economic debate, I agree with Pete: it would be preferable if Balls were banished to obscurity.

David Blackburn

Still spinning

From our UK edition

According to the Spectator’s literary editor, Peter Mandelson wrote the most boring book review ever published by the Spectator. I imagine he did. You don’t read the Mandelson memoir; you wade through it in leaking gum boots. The lack of illumination is nothing compared to the faceless prose. Mandelson cannot evoke the personality of Alan Clark’s or Chris Mullin's diaries. Form is crucial in that memoirs justify and diaries observe. Clark’s love of Mrs Thatcher and his self-importance match Mandelson’s love of Blair and his preening conceit that there was a ‘Third Man’ at the heart of New Labour's tenure in office - Mandelson spent most of it in exile.

Peter Hoskin

Tony Blair, everywhere

From our UK edition

To be honest, these Mandelson memoirs are already losing their lustre. I was planning to do a summary of this morning's revelations, as yesterday – but swiftly lost the will. It's not that this first draft of New Labour's history is unappreciated, of course. But so much of it is just plain unsurprising: ministers thought Labour was cruising for an electoral kicking; Alistair Darling proposed a VAT hike; David Miliband was considering running for the leadership in 2008; and so on and so on. Sadly, it's not quite enough to enliven this grey morning in Westminster. One general observation does emerge from the latest extracts, though: the omnipresence of Tony Blair.

Fraser Nelson

Will the coalition defeat the roadblocks to reform?

From our UK edition

The biggest reform to the NHS since its inception since 1948. A move away from bureaucracy towards a proper internal market. GPs commissioning. A revolution, taking on the vested interests. Yes, there was so much to savour in the NHS Plan of 2000 - enough, Alan Milburn would later joke, that he kept re-announcing its policies for the next three years and getting headlines. Well, the Tories can play at that game too. Now, it has been reannounced by Andrew Lansley and called the coalition NHS White Paper. This is, in my book, a compliment to Lansley. In opposition, he sided with the unions and attacked Labour from the left on the "stop the cuts" platform. Now, he is picking up some of the discarded Blair reform agenda – centrally, GP commissioning.

Monday

David Blackburn

Ducking the issue?

From our UK edition

As I wrote earlier, a large proportion of Andrew Lansley’s white paper had to be devoted to accountability. Much of it is, but little is explained. Patients are central. The creation of GP consortia is for their benefit and they will hold the consortia to account by excercising choice (4:21). Choice is the tyrannical panacea that does not exist. A patient can only improve a treatment if they are given it; and many GPs are closer to Doctor In the House rather than Dr.House. GPs are independent practitioners working within the NHS framework. For example, it is impossible for the patient to make recommendations about unavailable cancer drugs. In addition to the patient, the NHS Commissioning Board will regulate the consortia.

Peter Hoskin

Gove goes on the attack

From our UK edition

This afternoon's education question felt like a pressure valve being released. For a week now, the story has been all about the heat building-up under Michael Gove. But, today, the Education Secretary looked far more comfortable, and managed to swing the blowtorch back in Ed Balls' direction. The message that the coalition had been struggling to make previously came out clear and loud: the Building Schools for the Future cuts are a result of waste and bureaucratic mismanagement by the previous government. And Gove even came armed with examples, such as the £1.3 million paid to an individual consultant from the BSF fund. His point: this would be better directed at pupils and teachers.

David Blackburn

A question of accountability

From our UK edition

In theory, curbing bureaucracy in the NHS should have you reaching for the Champagne. But giving GPs control of £80bn is an enormous risk. GPs know their patients' needs, so Andrew Lansley’s thinking is that empowering GPs will improve patient care, and therefore patient outcomes. Many GPs will be chomping at the bit to get their hands on budgets; on the other hand, many will not – it takes a certain kind of mind to be thrilled by balance sheets. Also, those that are may fight their corner rather too vigorously, which would merely deepen imbalance in the health service. The success or failure of Lansley’s initiative depends on ensuring that GPs will be accountable for the public money they manage - the White Paper must address that question.

Peter Hoskin

The Mandelson question

From our UK edition

As Peter Mandelson has us knee-deep in Kremlinology already, it's worth pointing out this insight from Mary Ann Sieghart in the Independent: 'It was quite clear in 2008 and 2009 that Brown was going to lead Labour to defeat, whereas a messy leadership contest was by no means certain ….  Mandelson by then knew that Labour would lose under Brown. 'Surely you know we can't win with Gordon as leader?' a colleague asked him last year. To which the reply was, 'Do you think I'm mad? Do you think I don't realise that?' But Mandelson was convinced that Labour couldn't win a majority under any leader. His big strategic mistake was to overlook the possibility of winning enough parliamentary seats to be able to govern in coalition with the Lib Dems.

Peter Hoskin

Five highlights from the Mandelson serialisation

From our UK edition

So now we know what happened during those uncertain days following the election in May – or at least we know Peter Mandelson's side of it.  The Times begins its serialisation of the Dark Lord's book today with a front-page photo of Nick Clegg and the legend, "Clegg the Executioner".  And, inside, Mandelson explains how the Lib Dem leader made Gordon Brown's departure a precondition of any coalition deal with Labour.  Not the most surprising news ever, but worth having on record nonetheless. Aside from that, there's little of much weight in these first extracts, but plenty of titbits for political anoraks. Here are five that jumped out at me: 1) Blair thought that a LibLab deal was an "error".

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Will Labour ever start love-bombing the Lib Dems?

From our UK edition

Let's dwell on the Labour leadership contest a second longer, to point its participants in the direction of John Rentoul's column today.  Its central point – that Labour should "leave a door ajar" for Nick Clegg – should be self-evident to a party which has been forced out of power by a coalition.  But, in reality, Labour seems eager to ignore it.  At best, there's a lazy assumption that the Lib Dems will one day divorce the Tories and quite naturally shack up with the lady in red.  At worst, there's outright hostility to Clegg and his fellow, ahem, "collaborators".  Neither approach will do much to break the ties that bind the coalition partners together.

Peter Hoskin

Osborne to strengthen Parliament’s role in OBR appointments?

From our UK edition

It may not be the sexiest story in today's newspapers, but the ongoing Office for Budget Responsibility row is certainly among the most important.  After all, a great deal rests on how it is resolved.  Not only could we end up without a body capable of restoring trust in fiscal forecasts, but the government's promising transparency agenda could be sunk before it has even had chance to sail.  Much will depend on how far George Osborne goes to reinvigorate the OBR's independent credentials. In which case, it's worth highlighting the Sunday Telegraph's summary of Sir Alan Budd's proposals to do just that.

Peter Hoskin

Mandelson and Miliband kick open the hornets’ nest

From our UK edition

Oh joy, Labour are at war again.  The animosities which have largely been kept in check since the election are now piercing through to the surface again – and it's all thanks to Peter Mandelson's memoirs.  After the ennobled one's insights about Gordon and Tony in the Times yesterday, Charlie Whelan is shooting back from the pages of the Sunday Telegraph.  And, elsewhere, Brown is said to have told friends that "this is going to be a very difficult time for me."  Yep, it's just like the glory days of last summer. Amid all this, there's a sense that Mandelson and David Miliband have coordinated their efforts to trash Brown and, by extension, his "advisers".

Fraser Nelson

Cameron’s refreshing honesty on schools

From our UK edition

David Cameron has today told the News of the World that he is "terrified" about the prospect of sending his children to an inner-London state school. This is quite some statement, given how many tens of thousands of parents are in the same predicament. Isn't it the classic politician's error? To betray how his aloofness from voters by showing how he fears what ordinary parents have to put up with? That's what Tony Blair thought – so he'd pretend to be happy with state schools while sending his kids to the ultra-selective Oratory School. That is hypocrisy. What David Cameron has said represents honesty. After all, why shouldn't he be terrified? As I say in my News of the World column today, the record is appalling.