Uk politics

The AV scrap enters its final stage

From our UK edition

There are, as James pointed out earlier, only five days to go until the AV referendum  — and that means both campaigns are priming their final appeals for our hearts, minds and votes. So just what will those appeals look like? Today has brought some indication. As Paul Waugh reveals over at PoliticsHome, the Yes campaign is planning to wheel Eddie Izzard — of course! — in front of the microphones. The comedian is going to take part in 16 events across the country this week. And as for the No campaign, ConservativeHome have pictures of their new poster campaign and promotional leaflet. It's the latter that really tugs at the ol' retinas: a shot of Nick Clegg outside No.

Purnell stakes out a new welfare battleground

From our UK edition

I said a few days ago that the spirit of James Purnell lingers over the welfare debate in Britain. Well, you can now scratch out "spirit". The real-life, corporeal version of Purnell is giving a speech in Australia today — and, judging by its write-up in the Guardian, it is one that should have some resonance on this side of the planet. This is not just an address by a former Labour MP on where his party should go next — although it is partially that — but also the staking out of new ground on welfare policy. Whether you agree with it or not, it deserves some attention. So what does Purnell say? Much of it is a straight disavowal of New Labour's money-centric approach to welfare and poverty.

How the recriminations over AV’s defeat will change the debate over Lords reform

From our UK edition

It is odd to think that only the second national referendum in our history is only five days away. The combination of the Royal Wedding and the failure of the campaign to grip the public imagination has condemned it to being ‘In Other News’, on this the final weekend before the vote. At the moment, No appears to be cruising to victory. The Yes campaign lacks both message and momentum. I also suspect that, asPaul Goodman says, the rest of the week will see debate about why it has all gone so wrong for Yes. One thing I expect we will hear a lot of in the coming days is electoral reformers bemoaning that they went for a referendum on AV rather than a proportional system.

A princely marriage

From our UK edition

There are some things that Britain does better than any country in the world, and we saw one of them today. Two particulars will have jumped out at the tens of millions watching the Royal Wedding from overseas: the sheer splendour of our monarchy, and the depth of its popular support. HD television made the beauty of today's ceremony all the more breathtaking. If this were a movie, it would win an Oscar for best cinematography. The shots from the roof of Westminster Abbey were jaw-dropping, the camera angles throughout were perfect. But no less awesome was the sight of the thousands thronging the streets, or watching in Hyde Park.

Hain puts his foot in it

From our UK edition

Crude politics has intruded on the Royal Wedding after all, and all courtesy of Peter Hain. The Shadow Welsh Secretary has complained — on Twitter, naturally — that the BBC's coverage of the event dwelt too long on David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and ignored Ed Miliband. "BBC airbrushing Labour like the Palace?" he asked leadingly. The Tory minister David Jones has since admonished him, "time, place, Peter." If Labour have much sense they'll play this down as efficiently as possible. Miliband, it is true, barely featured in the television coverage — but that's really beside the point. It is rarely smart politics to take on the Palace at any time. Yet on the day of the Royal Wedding it's just downright foolish.

Why David Blanchflower has it wrong

From our UK edition

Gordon Brown may have gone, but advocates of his calamitous policies remain. David Blanchflower, the chief exponent of borrowing more, has a piece in The Guardian today which is worth examining. Written with his trademark chutzpah, it’s a very clear exposition of the Labour argument — along with its flaws. Here are some extracts, and my comments: "In his budget speech last month, Chancellor George Osborne suggested that he was hoping for 'an economy where the growth happens across the country and across all sectors. That is our ambition". Sadly, to judge by Wednesday's GDP figures, growth under this coalition remains just an ambition, a mere illusion." And why would that be? The GDP figures showed growth of 0.

The recriminations begin

From our UK edition

The Royal wedding and gossip about super injunctions is rather dominating conversation at Westminster today. But there is still some politics going on. Patrick Wintour in The Guardian has the beginnings of the recriminations that will follow a No vote in the referendum. Relations between the Lib Dems and the Yes campaign are pretty bad at the moment. Clegg’s camp is happy to tell journalists about what they see as the myriad failings of the Yes campaign. They complain that the Yes campaign has been too slow on the draw, let the No side define the debate and failed to get any message across. The Yes campaign’s response to this has been to whisper in peoples’ ears that whenever Nick Clegg appears for Yes their numbers go down.

The government has a problem with lawyers

From our UK edition

The government’s strained relationship with the Civil Service is a recurring story at the moment. Much of the disquiet seems to be the normal tit for tat exchanges immortalised in Yes Minister. In the main, ministers and their advisors express high regard for their officials. But there are some resilient bones of contention between the government and its lawyers. Again, this is not unusual. When Gordon Brown was Chancellor, parliamentary counsel were exasperated by his inability to take decisions. Brown’s budgetary machinations were finalised in a predictably mad rush, which incensed those who had to amend the bill hours before it was put to parliament.

Righting the wrong of sickness benefits

From our UK edition

He may no longer be an MP, but the spirit of James Purnell lingers on. It was, after all, the former Work and Pensions Secretary who introduced the Employment Support Allowance as a replacement for Incapacity Benefit in 2008, with the idea of encouraging people – the right people – away from sickness benefits and into the labour market. And now we have one of the strongest indications yet of just how that process is working. According to figures released by the DWP today, 887,300 of the 1,175,700 claimants who applied for ESA between October 2008 and August 2010 failed to qualify for any assistance – with 458,500 of them declared fit for work straight away, and 428,800 not completing their medical assessment. That's 75 per cent overall.

Cameron’s new cuts narrative

From our UK edition

Aside from the "Calm down, dear" drama, there was something else worth noting from today's PMQs: David Cameron trying for a calmer debate on the deficit. He admitted that his government is not really being that much more aggressive than Gordon Brown would have been. They're cutting £8 for every £7 that Brown and Darling proposed for 2011-12, he said. It's a line that Nick Clegg road-tested in his speech to the IPPR last week, and it represents a new and welcome strategy. To date, the rhetorical differences have been stark. The Tories have said: we’re the big bold cutters, Labour are deficit deniers. Labour has replied: your cuts are too deep and too harsh, and the GDP figures prove it.

What a carve up | 27 April 2011

From our UK edition

Blimey. That was a weird one. PMQs was trundling merrily away when the house was suddenly engulfed in a whirlwind of insults and accusations. Even now the row rumbles on across the blogosphere. Cameron arrived at PMQs looking genial and well-sunned. Quite a contrast with his sallow-faced opponent. Perhaps Ed Miliband’s bookish ways have kept him in the reading-room during the heat-wave while Cameron was roaming his herbaceous borders uprooting dandelions and other troublesome yellow-heads. The session began with the usual blend of opportunism and hypocrisy. Miliband demanded to know why economic growth has flat-lined in the last six months.

Temper, temper

From our UK edition

I have rarely heard the House as loud as it was after David Cameron’s ‘calm down, dear’ put down to Angela Eagle. The Labour benches roared at the Prime Minister and Cameron turned puce, while the Liberal Democrats looked distinctly uncomfortable. There is already a rather over-blown debate going on about whether the remark was sexist or not. But whether or not it was, it was certainly ill-judged. It was a tad too patronising and directing it at one of the more junior members of the shadow made it seem bullying. The Labour benches were heckling Cameron more than usual today, a result of him losing his rag with Ed Balls at PMQs last month. After today, they’ll turn the volume up another notch.

PMQs live blog | 27 April 2011

From our UK edition

VERDICT: To paraphrase that famous football cliché, this was a session of two halves. Cameron put in a confident performance against what should have been the trickier set of questions: on the economy. But when it came to Ed Miliband's second topic of choice, the NHS, it all went suddenly awry. The PM's arguments were unusually messy and convoluted, lost in themselves. And he only made matters worse with his Winner-esque exhortation at a Labour frontbencher, "Calm down, dear!" You can argue whether it was sexist of the PM, or not, particularly as it's not clear whom the remark was aimed at (although the smart money's on Angela Eagle). But it was, at least, a moment of frustration that played up to the worst Flashman caricatures of the PM.

What the GDP figures mean politically

From our UK edition

The coalition can breathe a little easier today. The economy returned to growth in the first quarter of this year, avoiding a double-dip recession. It expanded by 0.5 percent which is in the middle of City economists’ forecasts but below the OBR’s prediction of 0.8 percent. Recoveries are generally choppy and particularly so when coming out of a debt-induced recession.  Labour, though, will see these numbers as a further chance to claim that cuts have sucked the confidence out of the economy and that Britain is just bumping along the bottom. This, obviously, isn’t the whole picture. The deficit reduction plan has, crucially, kept the cost of borrowing low and enabled a continuing monetary stimulus.

Economy grows by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2011

From our UK edition

So, we're not back in recession, and growth of 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year is in line with what many forecasters were predicting, but... It is hardly indomitable stuff. As Duncan Weldon explained in a useful post yesterday – in which he rightly picked me up on a loosely worded post of my own (since, cheekily, edited) – 0.5 per cent merely compensates for the shrinkage experienced thanks to the snow last year. Across the last two quarters, economic growth has effectively plateaued. It's as we were, Q3 2010. The politics of the situation is fissile, even if we are stuck in the murky area of not-recession-but-not-strong-growth. There will undoubtedly be more pressure on the Coalition, from all sides, to ramp up their efforts for growth.

Why I’m sceptical of all the early election talk 

From our UK edition

Something has undoubtedly changed in the coalition in the past fortnight. Even those at the centre, who have been most loyal to the concept of coalition, are now happy to complain about the other side and its behaviour. But I’m still sceptical of all the early election speculation which has been sparked by Jackie Ashley’s very clever Guardian column. The main reason why I don’t think it will happen is the Cameron brand. Ever since David Cameron became leader of the Conservative party, the top of the party has believed that the protection of the Cameron brand is essential to electoral success. Cameron has too much personally invested in showing that the coalition can work to let it fail. The coalition is now key to Cameron’s whole political persona.

Osborne is on track to rebalance the economy

From our UK edition

It may look diminutive in between Easter and the Royal Wedding, but tomorrow is still a big day in the political calendar. It is, after all, the day when we hear the official growth estimate for the first quarter of this year. A negative number, and we shall have experienced two consecutive quarters of shrinkage — which is to say, the country will be back in recession. A positive number, and we shall have avoided that unhappy fate. So what are the forecasters saying? The consensus among bodies such as the NIESR and the CBI is around 0.5 percent, which – as Duncan Weldon explains in a very useful post – is barely enough to compensate for last quarter's snow-induced hit, but is still some sort of growth.