Uk politics

Calamity may lead to concessions for Clegg

From our UK edition

If the expected happens today, the political debate will rapidly move to whether Cameron should offer some concessions to Clegg to bolster his position. I hear there are two camps in Downing Street on this question with Steve Hilton a particularly ardent advocate of the no more concessions line.   Hilton’s position may surprise some but makes sense when you consider how his public service reform programme has, as Ben Brogan writes today, already been diluted for political reasons.    My current expectation is that there won’t be many concessions to Clegg. One well placed Tory told me last night that "Clegg picked the question and the date. He can have no complaints.

The ghost of David Miliband hovers over Ed’s election results

From our UK edition

While the focus remains fixed on the dramas of Coalitionville, it's worth remembering that today's votes are meaningful for Ed Miliband too. The Labour leader may not be facing the prospect of resignations, nor even outcry, at their various outcomes. But this is, nonetheless, the first major electoral moment of his leadership. He might well be judged on it. In which case, much will depend on the extent to which Labour advances in England have already been priced into the electoral calculus. If the party's footsoldiers regard sweeping gains — of perhaps around 1,000 seats — as some sort of default, then attention may turn instead to the turnaround in favour of the SNP in Scotland, and to the likely defeat for Yes to AV.

Make sure you vote NO today

From our UK edition

Today I urge everyone who believes in our democracy to vote ‘no’ to the unfair and expensive Alternative Vote (AV) system.   The recent polls have been encouraging but you must remember that there is no turnout threshold today – any complacency and the UK could sleepwalk into a heavily flawed voting system that we would struggle to get rid of.   Instead of voting being clear, simple and effective like our current system, the Alternative Vote’s complex counting process breaks the principle of ‘One Person, One Vote’ which is the foundation of our democracy.

Election day is here at last

From our UK edition

The usual form, on mornings such as these, is to put up a post setting the scene for the elections ahead – although, really, there's not much more to add than was said yesterday. Apart from a readers' survey in the Metro this morning, the only poll to hit after yesterday's ICM bombshell is a YouGov one for the Sun, and it gives No a 20-point lead. Even given the complications of turnout and geography, it looks as though Team No are heading for a straightforward victory. As if to underline his increased personal involvement in the campaign, and perhaps tie himself that little bit closer to the eventual result, David Cameron has not one, but two, comment pieces in the papers today – in the Mail and in the Sun.

The drug infestation in our prisons

From our UK edition

Despite the focus on the government’s controversial plans to reduce the prison population, the troubled Prison Service continues to cause headaches for Ministers in another way — by failing to get on top of the security problems plaguing the estate In the 1990s, when Michael Howard was in Ken Clarke’s position, the concern of ministers was escaping inmates. The Prison Service has made huge strides on this, despite ongoing issues with the open prison estate and day-release of some inmates. But now the ever-present problem is lax internal security and especially drug-infestation. The jailing this week, for two years, of a prison officer based at Feltham Young Offenders Institution is just one example of the problem.

Your guide to tomorrow’s elections

From our UK edition

In light of ICM's latest poll, Lib Dems might be relieved to hear that tomorrow isn't all about the AV referendum. But it's a meagre sort of relief: they're facing a drubbing in the local elections too. We've put together a quick guide to those elections, as well as those in Scotland and Wales, so that CoffeeHousers know what to look out for, and Lib Dems know what to fear. Here it is: England The main question hovering over England's local elections is: how big will Labour's gains be? There are around 9,400 seats up for contention, of which the Conservatives currently hold about 5,000; Labour, 1,600; and the Lib Dems, 1,900.

New ICM poll has No 36 — thirty six — points ahead

From our UK edition

Tonight’s ICM poll is even worse for the Yes campaign than last night’s ComRes poll. The poll, in tomorrow’s Guardian, has Yes heading for defeat by a margin of more than two-to-one and in every single region of the country. The turnout adjusted numbers are No 68, Yes 32. If these last two polls are accurate, and it is difficult to estimate what the turnout will be tomorrow, it will be a monumental humiliation for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. Defeat on this scale would take Lib Dem nervousness about what the coalition is doing to the party’s brand to a whole new level. Indeed, its effect would be so destabilising that it would be hard to predict how this punch-drunk party would react.

A session of Dickens, Ernie the Milkman and Jack Dromey

From our UK edition

There was an eerie, eve-of-battle calm about today’s PMQs. The real bust-up isn’t due till Friday. The votes will be in, AV will be out, Clegg will be down and Huhne will be calculating his next move. Before today’s session everyone expected Labour to co-ordinate an ambush and try to light Cameron’s ever-combustible fuse. But the chamber was under-populated and the opposition hadn’t troubled to devise a battle-plan. Miliband carried the fight to the PM. With an assured forensic performance he methodically built up the case against Cameron as a promise-breaker, a question-dodger and a budget-slasher. Cameron dealt with the assault by absorbing rather than repulsing it.

PMQs live blog | 4 May 2011

From our UK edition

VERDICT: A sedate sort of PMQs today, particularly in comparison to the fizz and fire of recent sessions. The reason is simply the date: with the local elections tomorrow, much of the emphasis was on making a straightforward pitch for votes. Miliband's was to attack the "broken promises" of the coalition — a charge that, if not exactly new, is one he is deploying more and more. Whereas Cameron's was to emphasise that councils can make cuts while improving services — and that Tory councils have been particularly successful in doing so. Both men broadcast their messages today, without really scarring the other. The winners and losers will be better judged on Friday morning. 1231: And that's it. My short verdict soon.

Whatever the Lib Dems claim, Michael Gove will be voting No tomorrow

From our UK edition

A senior Liberal Democrat is putting it about this morning that Michael Gove, the education secretary, will be voting for AV tomorrow. But a very close friend of Gove tells me that ‘this is categorically untrue. Michael will be voting to keep first past the post.’ This Lib Dem’s briefing strikes me as rather ham-fisted. One might even call it disorganised wickedness. UPDATE: Michael Gove is not only voting No tomorrow, he's getting out the vote for No. The education secretary, who has up to now stayed out of the referendum campaign, will be making phone calls to remind Conservatives to go out and vote No tomorrow from CCHQ this afternoon.

Is Chris Huhne proving coalitions don’t work?

From our UK edition

This country's not used to coalitions. So when we got one we were sceptical. When it worked, we remained sceptical. When it worked really well, taking decisions that a majority Labour government dared not take, we began to come around to the idea. Most people seemed to accept that they could live with a coalition; that it had a certain utility. Now, we don't know what to think following the spat between George Osborne and Chris Huhne. Is this proof that the coalition cannot work or merely an example of the way coalitions work? There are certainly worse examples of inter-coalition war in countries that often have coalition governments.

Yes to AV on the ropes as the final round approaches

From our UK edition

Thanks to this ComRes poll, the question floating around Westminster this morning is: how much?! You see, with only a day to go until the AV referendum, it has the No camp on 66 per cent, and the Yes camp on 34. That puts No a punishing 32 points ahead of its rival. Even allowing for the peculiarities of a bank holiday weekend – as noted by Anthony Wells here – it's still an astonishing gap. It augurs a landslide. Or does it? To my mind, much still rests on turnout and on the voting patterns of Wales, Scotland, etc. Yet there's no denying that Yes are up against it – and in a major way. Their problem, and the problem that they have faced throughout this campaign, is perfectly encapsulated by this morning's newspaper editorials.

The significance of today’s Cabinet bust-up

From our UK edition

On the Today Programme this morning, David Cameron stressed that for all the tensions about the AV referendum, ministers were still capable of sitting round a table and working together. But within a couple of hours of saying this, Chris Huhne had destroyed this argument by using Cabinet to continue his attack about the tactics of the No campaign.   When the Energy Secretary is demanding that the Prime Minister and the Chancellor justify their behaviour to him it is impossible to pretend that it is business as usual. It is now indisputable that the fallout from the AV referendum campaign is having an impact on the functioning of the government.   What is also noteworthy is that Osborne didn’t try and defuse the conversation with a joke or anything like that.

Clegg’s implicit attack on the Tories

From our UK edition

Up until a few months ago, David Cameron and Nick Clegg tried to avoid doing big set piece broadcast interviews on the same day. This was driven by a desire to both maximise the coalition’s dominance of the media agenda and to avoid having to give a running commentary on what the other had said. But this rule has gone out of the window as the AV referendum has got rougher and rougher. So, following on from their both doing separate interviews on Andrew Marr on Sunday, they both were on the Today Programme this morning. Clegg even told Justin Webb to ask Cameron about the split between the two of them on internships when he was on in forty minutes time.   Clegg isn’t, unlike Cable and Huhne, openly attacking the Tories. But he is doing so implicitly.

Huhne lays into Cameron and Osborne at Cabinet

From our UK edition

At Cabinet this morning, I am told that Chris Huhne directly challenged David Cameron and George Osborne about the claims that the No campaign have been making. He asked them both in turn, if they were going to — or could — defend them. Osborne responded by telling Huhne that his behaviour was inappropriate and that Cabinet wasn’t the place for such disputes. The fact that this row broke out in Cabinet shows just how badly relations within the coalition have been damaged bv the AV campaign. That Huhne is leading the anti-Tory charge even within Cabinet will also stoke the rumours about what the Energy Secretary is planning to do after Thursday’s referendum.

John Humphrys makes the case for voting No to AV

From our UK edition

Is AV too complex? Ask John Humphrys, who unwittingly made the case against switching system today, in conversation with David Cameron on the Today programme. It became clear that Humphrys believed that everyone's second preference vote would be counted under AV — and Cameron pounced. Here's the transcript: DC: If you go to an AV system you start counting some people's votes more than once. And you end up, in the words of Churchill... JH: No you don't. It simply isn't true that you count votes more than once. DC: Yes, you count all the votes. You start eliminating candidates, and you count people's second preferences. JH: And I have a second preference, as well as you, as well as anyone else. So you don't count some people's votes more than others.

How a degree of separation will strengthen the coalition

From our UK edition

Almost a year ago, David Cameron and Nick Clegg staged their love-in at the Downing Street rose garden. As I say in the News of the World (£) today, this era is now at a close. When they come back from the 5 May elections, Clegg and Cameron have agreed that they cannot go on as before. An agreement has been struck for an amicable separation. Not divorce — the coalition will keep going. But Cameron and Clegg will put clear blue (and yellow) water between them and drop the pretence that they agree on everything. The coalition is about to enter its Phase Two.   Clegg’s analysis is that Phase One was, perhaps, too successful. His over-riding mission was to prove to a sceptical Britain that coalition governments can work and don’t lead to sclerosis.

Chris Huhne pitches to the left

From our UK edition

We're used to AV platform-sharing by now — so it's not the fact that Chris Huhne has written an article for the Observer alongside Labour's John Denhan and the Green's Caroline Lucas that shocks. It's the words he then puts his name to. "Britain consistently votes as a centre-left country and yet the the Conservatives have dominated our politics for two-thirds of the time since 1900," begins the article. "No wonder David Cameron says the current system 'has served us well'," it continues. Although subsequent paragraphs are more conciliatory — claiming, for instance, that Tory voters in the north also suffer thanks to our electoral calculus — this is nonetheless a provocation to rile Huhne's coalition colleagues.

The AV scrap enters its final stage

From our UK edition

There are, as James pointed out earlier, only five days to go until the AV referendum  — and that means both campaigns are priming their final appeals for our hearts, minds and votes. So just what will those appeals look like? Today has brought some indication. As Paul Waugh reveals over at PoliticsHome, the Yes campaign is planning to wheel Eddie Izzard — of course! — in front of the microphones. The comedian is going to take part in 16 events across the country this week. And as for the No campaign, ConservativeHome have pictures of their new poster campaign and promotional leaflet. It's the latter that really tugs at the ol' retinas: a shot of Nick Clegg outside No.