Uk politics

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Labour prepares for the worst (good news on the economy)

From our UK edition

Whether or not he did accidentally suggest that he knew what tomorrow's GDP figures will be at Prime Minister's Questions, David Cameron did have a jolly good point about the way Labour responds to good news on the economy. He told Ed Miliband: 'It's only a bad week if you think it's bad that unemployment's coming down, it's only a bad week if you regret inflation coming down… every piece of good news sends that team into a complete decline, well, I can tell him, the good news will keep on coming.' As Fraser blogged at the weekend, Ed Miliband's strategy is predicated on the government continually cocking up.

Jonathan Jones

Why British GDP figures are almost ALWAYS wrong.

From our UK edition

Will it be 0.5 per cent? 0.8 per cent? 1 per cent? Whatever figure the ONS tells us GDP grew by in the third quarter of 2012, there's one thing you can be pretty sure of: it won't be the actual amount GDP grew by in Q3. In the past 51 years, just 12 of the ONS's 205 first stabs at quarterly growth have survived later revisions. To be fair, the ONS recognises this, and cautiously labels tomorrow's figure a ‘preliminary estimate’. But just how wrong is it likely to be? If tomorrow's figure is +0.5 per cent, does that mean we can be pretty confident that growth was between, say, 0.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent — bad but not disastrous? It turns out we can't. In fact, a preliminary estimate of +0.5 per cent really means somewhere between +1.2 per cent and –0.

Lloyd Evans

PMQs sketch: Miliband gives up on Songs of Dispraise and attacks Cameron on competence

From our UK edition

Goodness, he’s enjoying himself. Ed Miliband is brimful of confidence these days and he handles himself like a master juggler at PMQs. He flicks out deft gags and acerbic asides while keeping the central question in the air. He’s having fun. And it’s a pleasure to watch. Greatly helpful to him is the government’s pledge to deliver at least one major and one minor cock-up every week. Last Wednesday it was Cameron’s improvised announcement that energy companies must give customers the lowest tariff. Today he tried to explain this. ‘There were 400 different energy tariffs last year,’ the PM told the Commons. ‘That’s totally baffling.’ ‘The only people baffled,’ said Miliband. ‘were his ministers last week.

Hamish Macdonell

Salmond’s darkest day could be yet to come

From our UK edition

For years Scotland has been waiting to see when his luck would run out – well, now it has. Alex Salmond: gambler, tipster, political animal and First Minister now has another moniker: author of the country’s first scomnishambles. Yesterday marked, without doubt, the First Minister’s worst day in office. First, he lost two MSPs. Left-wingers Jean Urquhart and John Finnie announced they were leaving the SNP because of the party’s conversion to Nato. That decision, taken at SNP conference last weekend, has alienated many left-wingers in the party because they see it – rightly – as part of Salmond’s attempts to take the SNP into the moderate, centre ground of Scottish politics.

James Forsyth

‘Prisoners are not getting the vote’, Cameron confirms

From our UK edition

David Cameron was in a particularly irritable mood at Prime Minister's Questions today. But he did what he needed to do and made clear that ‘prisoners are not getting the vote under this government’. It seems there may be another Commons vote to further demonstrate the will of the House on this matter. If there is, it’ll be fascinating to see whether the Attorney General, who is far more concerned about upsetting the Strasbourg court than his Conservative colleagues, chooses to excuse himself. Ed Miliband enjoyed mocking the Prime Minister and the Chancellor in his questions; I’ve rarely seen the Labour leader more confident on his feet at PMQs. But Cameron, even on slightly poor form, now has a ready-made response: to point to the encouraging economic news.

Isabel Hardman

Did David Cameron break an embargo on GDP figures?

From our UK edition

Last week David Cameron found himself in trouble after Prime Minister's Questions over a slip of the tongue about energy bills: this week he's managed to get himself into trouble over what looks like yet another slip of the tongue at PMQs. The Prime Minster appeared to suggest that tomorrow's GDP figures, which are under strict embargo, will be good news for the government. The heat was on for Cameron, as Ed Miliband was performing reasonably well, with some good jokes (including 'I asked him a question about the railways - I have to say the Chancellor shouts, it's not the ticket that needs upgrading, it's the Chancellor of the Exchequer').

Isabel Hardman

Nick Clegg to tell business leaders: we’re your friends

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg is giving a speech this evening in which he will try to re-sell the Liberal Democrats as friends of business. Admitting that he hasn't 'said enough' about the party's pro-business policies, he will tell the guests at Mansion House: 'Many in the corporate world do not - automatically - see the Liberal Democrats as natural allies. Perhaps that's because, most recently, we've rightly earned ourselves a reputation as loud critics of corporate irresponsibility… Not least in financial service following the crash in 2008. Yet, historically, the Liberal Democrats are a party of industrialists and small business… And, since coming into government, we've been taking decisions, day in, day out, to promote British business.

James Forsyth

David Cameron must rule out votes for prisoners at PMQs

From our UK edition

The issue of prisoner votes has turned into a question of trust between David Cameron and his backbenchers. Most Tory MPs well remember that the Prime Minister’s initial intention was to comply with the Strasbourg court’s ruling; he only changed his mind after seeing how strong feelings were on the issue on the Tory benches and in the country. For this reason, Cameron needs to scotch all this talk of a draft bill on votes for at least some prisoners at PMQs today. If he doesn’t, he’ll have just as large a rebellion on his hands as he did last time. The issue will also drive a further wedge between Cameron and his backbenchers.

Isabel Hardman

Sir Mervyn King: Quantitative easing is reaching its limit

From our UK edition

Quantitative easing isn't an eternal elixir of economic health. That was the admission from Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King last night at a speech in Cardiff. Sir Mervyn said there were limits to the BoE's policy of printing money to buy bonds, which could not 'continue indefinitely': 'One thing we can see clearly is that the recovery and rebalancing of the UK economy are proceeding at a slow and uncertain pace. At this stage, it is difficult to know whether some of the recent more positive signs will persist. The Monetary Policy Committee will think long and hard before it decides whether or not to make further asset purchases. But should those signs fade, the MPC does stand ready to inject more money into the economy. 'Printing money is not, however, simply manna from heaven.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Margaret Thatcher and the Tory party’s change on Europe

From our UK edition

Charles Moore’s biography of Margaret Thatcher promises to be the most important British political book in decades. Tonight, we got a preview of it when Charles delivered the Centre for Policy Studies’ second Margaret Thatcher lecture. The subject was Thatcher and Europe. I won’t say too much about it because we’re running a version of it in the coming issue of The Spectator. But one thing that Charles demonstrated was that even when Thatcher was campaigning for British membership of the European Community, as then was, she was never in favour of the European project. One of the other thing that Charles’s lecture brought out was the shift in the balance of power in the Tory party on Europe.

Isabel Hardman

Alex Salmond branded ‘liar’ over legal advice row as two MSPs resign

From our UK edition

It  has been a disastrous day for the Scottish National Party. Its majority at Holyrood has been cut to just one this morning after two MSPs - Jean Urquhart and John Finnie - quit the party in protest at its decision at its conference in Perth this weekend to end its opposition to Nato. Then Nicola Sturgeon gave a statement to the Scottish Parliament which led to her boss being branded a 'liar' by Labour as she admitted that the Scottish government has not yet sought legal advice on whether an independent Scotland would continue to be a member of the European Union.

Sebastian Payne

Despite everything last week, David Cameron is still on the up

From our UK edition

Finally, some good news for the government - the public seems unconcerned by its recent difficulties. In spite of plebgate and George Osborne's train ticket dominating this weekend's papers, polling out today shows the Conservatives have managed to reverse their voting share decline in the wake of their party conference. The Populus/Times poll places the Tories on 35 per cent, up five points from September while Labour are down by the same amount. This brings Labour's lead down to where it was before this year's budget in March 2012: The Guardian/ICM polling shows a smaller increase, with Labour on 41 per cent and 33 per cent for the Conservatives. This is still a two point improvement on their last poll: However, the ICM figures are adjusted in favour of the Tories.

Alex Massie

A lesson for Alex Salmond from George Orwell

From our UK edition

I've written a piece for today's Scotsman noting that there are some parallels between Scotland's independence stushie and the pre-Iraq War rammy a decade ago. Only this time it's the nationalists who are, if you will allow the comparison, the neoconservatives. Just as pro-war advocates back then (and I was one of them) cheerfully labelled anyone who opposed the war of being "objectively pro-Saddam" so the nationalists today essentially argue that anyone opposed to independence is anti-Scottish and, implicitly, objectively so. This is as tedious as it is stupid and the kind of thing liable to further hamper the party's already faltering attempts to win what the Americans call high information voters (that is: those on above-average incomes).

Jonathan Jones

The illusion of economic recovery

From our UK edition

GDP per head is still 7 per cent below its pre-recession peak. That's one of the sober reminders of the weakness of our recovery in a new ONS report, released as part of its National Well-being project. In fact, GDP per head fell by 7 per cent from 2008 Q1 to the recession's trough in 2009 Q2 — and has recovered by 0.0 per cent since. That is, the 2.4 per cent recovery in GDP up to 2012 Q2 (which still leaves us 4.1 per cent below our pre-recession level) has not been enough to outweigh population growth. The GDP index has risen, but only thanks to Britain's ever-rising headcount. When it comes to GDP per capita, there has literally been no recovery at all.

Isabel Hardman

Government to postpone badger cull

From our UK edition

Conservative backbenchers will be wondering this morning whether they should bother replying to any letters from their constituents about any unpopular government policy. Environment Secretary Owen Paterson is to announce today that the planned badger cull will be postponed following concerns about its mounting cost. Defra is insisting that the delay, until next year at the earliest, is not a U-turn. This is accurate: the vehicle hasn't turned around in the road, it has run out of fuel and ground to a juddering halt. Studies had found that there were perhaps twice as many badgers as originally estimated, and many farmers feared they would not be able to afford to kill 70 per cent of this much larger population.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Government defeated on ‘poll tax mark two’

From our UK edition

The government suffered an awkward defeat in the House of Lords this afternoon on its changes to council tax benefit. Rebels on an amendment to the Local Government Finance Bill calling for an independent review of the changes to be carried out within three years of their introduction included 16 Liberal Democrats. Labour has dubbed the changes, which will mean councils will have to design their own local schemes to help low-income households with council tax bills, the 'poll tax mark two' because two million families will have to contribute towards their council tax for the first time. Liberal Democrat Lord Shipley told the Chamber: 'The problems for individuals could be very severe in the face of so much change at once.

Isabel Hardman

Prime Minister auditions as his own press officer after shambolic week

From our UK edition

In between confusing the Chamber just a little bit more on his European policy this afternoon, David Cameron appeared to be auditioning to work as his own press officer, reading out a list of the government's achievements such as falling unemployment and lower inflation figures over the past week to MPs, just in case they'd missed them, as evidence that Britain does have a great deal to offer to Europe. He had already taken pains to emphasise this earlier today after his crime speech, saying: 'We need to focus on the big picture. What actually happened last week is that unemployment fell, inflation fell, waiting lists in our hospitals fell, crime fell, the right decision was made about Gary McKinnon.

James Forsyth

Cameron irked on Europe as backbenchers rattle the referendum cage

From our UK edition

Throughout his statement on the European Council, David Cameron seemed slightly irritated. One sensed that the headlines of the last few days have rather got under his skin. Cameron began by declaring that the Council meeting had made ‘limited progress’, which is hardly much to report to the House. He also was unable to resist another pop at Chris Bryant; complaining that he still hadn’t apologised to him when the Labour MPs asked a question. It was striking what a pro-European tone Ed Miliband took in his response to Cameron. It was all about how Cameron was losing control of his party over Europe and needed more friends there.

Isabel Hardman

Dave vs Angela, round 2

From our UK edition

David Cameron appears to be looking for a suite of examples for his party that he's still fighting their corner. He's about to deliver his speech on offenders, and his spokesman has just suggested he's up for a real scrap on the European Union budget, too. The FT's splash this morning is that Angela Merkel is threatening to cancel next month's European budget summit if Britain refuses to approve any other deal than a total freeze on spending. The paper reports that Merkel believes there is no point in holding the summit if Cameron is going to veto any deal on the table. The problem for the German Chancellor is that if Cameron vetoes a deal, it will be good for him politically, but bad for Merkel as Germany will lose its rebate and therefore will have to contribute more.

Isabel Hardman

Cameron tries to show he’s still got it with tough crime announcement

From our UK edition

It's clear the government has had a bad week when the Prime Minister pops up on a Monday with a crowd-pleasing policy announcement. Recent re-launches have been shared by senior Lib Dems and Tories following the collapse of Lords reform, for example, to demonstrate that the Coalition is still working well. But today, the Lib Dems are nowhere to be seen: the Prime Minister's big crime announcement is a response to a terrible week for the Conservative party, rather than the coalition as a whole. Cameron is using law and order as a traditional Conservative area, arguing that 'retribution is not a dirty word' and that alongside a 'tough' approach to crime, all but the most high-risk prisoners will be offered rehabilitation by the end of 2015.