Uk politics

It appears Laura Sandys has made the right decision to stand down at the next election. A new poll from Survation targeting her South Thanet constituency suggests that if a general election took place tomorrow, the Tories would fail to hold onto the seat. In the constituency once represented by Jonathan Aitken, the Conservatives have dropped 20 points since the last general election, pushing them into third place. Labour would take the seat with 35 per cent of the vote but most worryingly for some, Ukip’s vote has risen hugely, shooting into second place with 30 per cent: Constituency level polling is quite rare, so it’s always interesting to see how national trends filter down to a seat-by-seat basis.

Last night, Sebastian Payne described Boris Johnson as being a politician who 'prides himself on being one of the few politicians who gets away with saying the unsayable'. He was covering the Mayor of London's lecture to the Centre for Policy Studies, where Boris said the following: 'Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests, it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16 per cent of our species have an IQ below 85, while about 2 per cent have an IQ above 130. The harder you shake the pack, the easier it will be for some cornflakes to get to the top.

It's bad enough being lectured by politicians from Edinburgh or even London. That, I suppose, is to be expected however. Irritating but normal. It's rather different when foreigners - real foreigners - decide to interfere in our own constitutional rammy. It smacks of impertinence. When that intervention comes from the leader - to put it in Sun-speak - of a nation of donkey-slaying, rock-coveting bankrupts it's even less respectable. So the suggestion made yesterday by Mariano Rajoy, Prime Minister of what we still call Spain, that an independent Scotland would, by creating a new country, need to reapply for EU membership is hackle-raising stuff. You're tempted to reply jog on, pal. Of course Rajoy's remarks are not about Scotland at all. They are about Catalonia.

Commentators sometimes like to describe a particular session of Prime Minister's Questions as 'vintage'. If 'vintage' is the correct description for the good weeks, this one was more of a serving of tepid Blue Nun. David Cameron was in a very odd mood indeed. He was clearly pleased with an early quip referencing Miliband's Desert Island Discs appearance. He joked that Miliband 'isn't loving Marx, he's loving Engels instead'. The joke was so dreadful that the entire Chamber convulsed as though winded by a fast-moving cricket ball. Miliband attacked the Prime Minister on his inconsistency over payday loan caps and climate change policy. This was a good theme, and gave the Labour leader the killer line that what had happened this week was 'an intellectual collapse of their position'.

Last night David Cameron, George Osborne and Lynton Crosby held a meeting with the Conservative parliamentary party. Coffee House has exclusive details of what took place. There was a presentation on how well the party was doing from the Prime Minister (without any new information), and one from Lynton Crosby in which the strategist asked Tory MP James Morris to stand up and take a round of applause for passing on the 'nightmare' email from the Ed Miliband's office to the Mail on Sunday. Sir George Young brought less exciting news that MPs will have to pull their weight a great deal more by serving on more statutory instrument committees. But backbenchers also had a chance to quiz their leaders on some of their big worries.

David Cameron knows that the only criticism from other parties of his plans to restrict welfare access for new migrants will be that he isn't being tough enough. Such is the fear on all sides of being accused of repeating what the Prime Minister describes in his FT article as the 'monumental mistake' of the last Labour government that the only option on the table for Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will be to support the move. It will be interesting to see how Miliband fares at Prime Minister's Questions today. Given Labour has put forward its own 'tough' proposals and given Yvette Cooper went to such lengths to complain that the Immigration Bill wasn't harsh enough, the Labour leader may choose to argue that Cameron isn't going as far as Labour has now proposed.

Hidden away in the 650-page White Paper on Scottish Independence are a number of very interesting developments, none of which were championed by the SNP beforehand but every one of which has the potential to shape the campaign. Here are just a few of them: 1. A major move on nuclear weapons. The SNP’s position on Trident and nuclear weapons is well known. An independent Scotland would kick Trident out of its current base on the Clyde and become a 'non-nuclear' state with only conventional armed forces. Also, Scotland would be so defiantly anti-nuclear that it would not let ships carrying nuclear weapons enter its water or its ports. Oh really? What about this then?

The swell of support continues for Nigel Mills' amendment to the Immigration Bill which would most likely land the British government in court by trying to extend transitional controls on Bulgarian and Romanian migrants to 2018. I have learned that Graham Brady, influential chair of the 1922 Committee, has now signed the amendment too, and the rebels organising behind it tell me they now have more than 40 backers. The list now includes a number of 1922 Committee executive members, including Nick de Bois, John Whittingdale, Charles Walker and Jason McCartney.

There is still a great deal of heat and rather a little less light over George Osborne's decision to 'step in where government needs to step in' and cap the cost of payday loans. Does this mean he's actually a lefty? What is he up to? Writing for the Telegraph, David Skelton, founder of the very thoughtful Renewal campaign to broaden the Conservative party's appeal, argues that this is 'the right thing to do and it sends a powerful signal that the party will tackle rip-off companies and help the vulnerable'.