Uk politics

Thursday

Sebastian Payne

Labour on track to beat Ukip in Wythenshawe & Sale East

From our UK edition

Will Ukip make great gains in the Wythenshawe & Sale East by-election next week? According to the latest polling from Lord Ashcroft, the party has increased its vote share by 12 points since the last general election but are far off from winning. Labour is still very much on track to hold the seat, given a 17-point increase in their vote share: Although Ukip has increased its vote share fivefold since 2010, it looks unlikely at this stage that the party will sweep through and take the seat. Despite rumours of shipping in a team from London to run the short campaign, they don’t appear to have made much of a mark on the ground.

Alex Massie

With friends like these the Union has no need for enemies

From our UK edition

[audioplayer src='http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_6_February_2014_v4.mp3' title='Alex Massie and Matthew Parris discuss why the Union is in peril' startat=55] Listen[/audioplayer]In the cover story for this week's edition of the magazine (subscribe, by the way!) I write that "The battle for Britain is being conducted on a wavelength which unionist politicians in London struggle to pick up." As if to prove my point, consider this story from today's Financial Times in which it is revealed that government ministers in London have been pressuring defence companies to "highlight potential job losses and disruption if Scotland splits from the UK".

Nigel Lawson

Nigel Lawson: David Cameron’s aid policy is doing more harm than good

From our UK edition

Earlier this week, George Osborne named Lord Lawson as one of the economic thinkers who had influenced him. But the Chancellor's mentor isn't quite so impressed with some of his policies. Here's his letter from this week's Spectator on the 'anomalous aid policy' that the government is pursuing: Sir: I was glad to see the excellent Acemoglu and Robinson article (‘Why aid fails’, 25 January) and your endnote recording that David Cameron has just declared their book, Why Nations Fail, to be one of his favourites. It is indeed an important book, which is why I quoted from it extensively in a House of Lords debate on overseas development aid in 2012.

Alex Massie

Alex Salmond is within striking distance of victory. Why hasn’t England noticed?

From our UK edition

 Edinburgh [audioplayer src='http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_6_February_2014_v4.mp3' title='Alex Massie and Matthew Parris discuss why the Union is in peril' startat=55] Listen [/audioplayer]A century ago, with Britain in peril, Lord Kitchener’s stern countenance demanded that every stout-hearted Briton do their bit for King and Country. ‘Your country needs you’ rallied hundreds of thousands to khaki and the Kaiser’s War. Today, with Britain in peril again, you could be forgiven for asking where Kitchener’s successor is. A new recruiting poster might cry: ‘Britons: Wake up! Pay attention! Your country really is at risk!’ The threat, of course, is domestic rather than foreign (for now, at least).

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Breaking: Aidan Burley to stand down in 2015

From our UK edition

This evening, Conservative MPs have been told that Aidan Burley, the MP for Cannock Chase who attended a Nazi-themed stag do is standing down in 2015. He said: 'After a difficult time I have decided to announce I will stand down at the next general election. I will continue to work for the people of Cannock Chase until that election, and look forward to supporting my successor, as soon as he or she is selected, to ensure that Labour have no chance of re-taking this seat.' Rather graciously, Grant Shapps has issued this statement: 'Aidan has a strong record in his constituency from securing the future of Cannock Chase Hospital, to setting up local job fairs and getting hundreds of people back to work. He has served his constituents with dedication and commitment.

Isabel Hardman

Is it time to scrap the Environment Agency?

From our UK edition

Aside from his ding-dong over floods with Ed Miliband at PMQs today, David Cameron also faced questions from backbenchers who have been affected by the floods. Conservative Graham Stuart asked whether the Prime Minister shared his 'outrage at the false choice presented by the Chairman of the Environment Agency between protecting urban and rural areas from flood'. He was referring to Smith's op-ed for the Telegraph earlier this week in which the quango chief pitched town and country against one another. The Prime Minister replied: 'I think my honourable friend is absolutely right: there shouldn't be a false choice between protecting the town or protecting the people who live in the countryside.

Martin Vander Weyer

How we fired Anne McIntosh MP

From our UK edition

The decision not to reselect Anne McIntosh, as seen by one of her local party members. One evening last March I was standing at the back of the crowded annual meeting of Thirsk and Malton Conservative Association, observing in a semi-detached way as a rank-and-file member. Our MP, Anne McIntosh, was delivering an angry speech against the association’s chairman, Peter Steveney, and its executive council, who had voted two months earlier not to reselect her as parliamentary candidate for 2015 — a decision confirmed by a membership ballot last week. She paused to scan the room, dropped her voice half an octave, and snarled: ‘Martin Vander Weyer, where are you?

Isabel Hardman

Return of the native as Danny Alexander tries to differentiate from Tories

From our UK edition

'I know a few people who could arrange just that,' remarked a Tory MP this morning on reading Danny Alexander's remarks in the Mirror that the Conservatives would reduce the top rate of tax to 40p 'over my dead body'. He told the newspaper: 'The top rate of tax has been an issue of late. Labour wants to take it back up to 50p, I think the 45p rate is the right place to be. I wouldn’t go to cutting below 45p – that would happen over my dead body. It’s better to say we are going to stick where we are.' It's worth pointing out that Alexander only means over his dead body in this Parliament. A source close to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury tells me: 'What he's saying is over my dead body in this Parliament. He's very explicit in the language he uses.

Sebastian Payne

Sorry RMT, there’s no proof the public support the Tube strikes

From our UK edition

Statistics can be used to prove anything, a wise man (Homer Simpson) once said. It looks like the RMT union are trying to do just that, with a new poll they've published with the claim the public supports the Tube strikes. According to a press release entitled 'Poll shows strike action against cuts justified and continued opposition to ticket office closures': ‘The survey carried out by the respected polling organisation Survation found that almost two thirds (65%) of tube users felt that lawful industrial action as a last resort was justified, with only 29% not sharing that view. A similar number (66%) were concerned at the Mayor's closure plans.’ Half of that may be true, but the polling doesn’t back up the notion that the public approve of the action.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Lynton Crosby gives Tories ‘lovely’ roasting as MPs demand govt EU referendum bill

From our UK edition

The Conservatives have just held a party meeting where Lynton Crosby was supposed to be reading them the riot act over their behaviour in the past few weeks. But the MPs leaving seemed to think it was 'lovely', 'very positive' and 'all very tame', which sounds like an unconventional roasting. The meeting focused on turning technical achievements into an emotional message and strategy for the European elections. The latter includes listing where the Conservatives have already delivered: on the EU budget, the veto and cutting bailouts, which should be proof enough that the Conservatives can deliver more. Apparently the Prime Minister and George Osborne said nothing.

Isabel Hardman

George Osborne: Housing crisis will still be here in 10 years’ time

From our UK edition

George Osborne's evidence to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee was dispiriting for a number of reasons. The first was that he told the peers that the chances are that politicians will still be struggling to ensure that housing supply keeps up with demand in 10 years' time. He said: 'I imagine if we were all assembled again in 10 years' time we'd still be talking about the challenge of making sure that our housing supply kept up with housing demand and we're all legislators here and we all have a responsibility to the next generation.' listen to ‘George Osborne: Housing crisis will still be with us in 10 years' time.

Alex Massie

Relax, you can safely ignore BP’s “warnings” about the impact of Scottish independence

From our UK edition

Why, a Tory grandee asked me recently, won't more businesses come out against Scottish independence? It was, in his view, axiomatic that independence would be bad for businesses north and south of the border. So why the silence? Perhaps, or at least in part perhaps, because when businesses do raise their concerns they often contrive to present themselves as hopeless chumps. I am sure Bob Dudley, chief of BP, is personally committed to Britain but the idea, as expressed in an interview with the BBC, that Scottish independence creates "big uncertainties" for his business is poppycock. Well, a kind of poppycock anyway. It would require BP to operate in another country and I can see why the petroleum giant would be happy to stick with the familiar status quo.

Sebastian Payne

Tube strike shows how Bob Crow is losing his power

From our UK edition

Just over two years ago, London Tube drivers negotiated a package that took their pay to £52,000 – around £10,000 more than the average Londoner. And yet tonight these drivers, along with other Underground staff, will go on strike – over a planned overhaul of how stations operate. But will it be much of a strike? Only 30 per cent of RMT members actually backed Bob Crow’s plan to strike (60 per cent abstained) and Boris Johnson is doing a pretty good job of keeping the show on the road (or in the tunnel). Of London Underground’s 12 underground lines, 10 will be running. The trains will be less frequent, of course, perhaps five to ten minutes apart. But in general, Comrade Crow’s attempt to close the network down have failed.

Isabel Hardman

Labour’s NEC backs ‘historic’ union link reforms

From our UK edition

The Labour party's National Executive Committee has backed Ed Miliband's plans to change the party's trade union links by 28 votes to two, which marks a resounding victory for the Labour leader. There was little doubt that the NEC would endorse the reforms, which will still take five years to be implemented, and in the end the two members who opposed the proposals (another member abstained) were vocal leftwing backbencher Dennis Skinner and Christine Shawcroft. The next step is for the party to vote on the reforms at a special conference on 1 March. Miliband said this afternoon: 'Some people will find change difficult to accept. Others are worried about the consequences.

Isabel Hardman

Ukip’s anti-Labour mission

From our UK edition

Ukip wants to use the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election as a way of spooking Labour into realising that it can steal votes from every party, not just the Tories. Labour is sufficiently worried to be trialling special anti-Ukip leaflets in the constituency, but behind-the-scenes senior figures still seem reasonably relaxed about the real threat that Nigel Farage's party poses. The picture (from Guido) above, though, shows that Ukip is trying to hit the two weak spots for Labour, the ones it is trying to neutralise rather than develop radical policy on: welfare and immigration.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Guinea-pigging, carpets and foreign language courses: the universal credit fog

From our UK edition

You can tell how little someone respects and admires someone by the number of times they say 'with respect'. Based on the number of times Iain Duncan Smith and Robert Devereux used that phrase in today's Work and Pensions Select Committee, relations have really hit rock bottom between DWP and the MPs scrutinising the department. Just to underline his irritation at some of the questions, IDS told Glenda Jackson that he had 'no idea what you are asking' and that to understand her, he would have to take a foreign language course. Devereux snapped that she was criticising him for answering the question she'd set, and repeatedly complained that the committee was 'going round in circles'.

Isabel Hardman

Blow for Yeo as local Tory party says ‘go’

From our UK edition

In part two of the Constituent Spring, Tim Yeo's constituency association has just voted not to re-adopt him as their Conservative candidate. The Tory MP had appealed against the decision of the South Suffolk Conservative Association's decision to deselect him, and the result of the vote on this was announced today. Yeo said: 'It has been a privilege to serve as MP for South Suffolk since 1983. I will continue to work for all my constituents until the General Election next year. I am immensely grateful to all those Conservative Party members who voted for me to continue as their MP. I now ask them all to campaign for my successor with the same loyalty and dedication they have shown to me.

Isabel Hardman

Michael Gove and the fight for the moral high ground

From our UK edition

Michael Gove's speech today was, as James explained at the weekend, a pitch from the Tories to be the optimists of the 2015 election. He wanted to have a little boast about the success of the government's education reforms in raising the desirability of a state education. He said: 'When Channel Four make documentaries about great comprehensives - academies - in Essex and Yorkshire, when BBC3 make heroes out of tough young teachers, when even Tatler publishes a guide to the best state schools - you know tectonic plates have started to shift.' This is hardly the running down of teachers or state schools that Gove's critics like to complain about. But this speech has still attracted a fair bit of rage.

Sebastian Payne

David Higgins warns politicians of the costs of dithering on HS2

From our UK edition

Sir David Higgins is making the most of the first few weeks in his job as chief of HS2 Ltd to fight the new line's corner. In an interview in today’s Daily Telegraph, Higgins makes a strong case (arguably better than anyone from the government) for the line, explaining why there is no alternative. He warns that the existing rail lines risk becoming similar to the ‘Piccadilly line at rush hour’: ‘There are no new train paths. We’d love to put more trains on the west coast. It performs at 85 per cent. It’s a very tired, old, smartly refurbished railway line that is right at capacity. It’s the busiest mixed use railway line in Europe and it’s showing. We can’t get more trains on it.

Isabel Hardman

Tory modernisers make hard-headed pitch for greenery

From our UK edition

The 2020 group of modernising, mostly 2010-intake, Conservatives is trying to muscle in on their party's manifesto-writing process by producing an impressive number of reports that they hope the Tory brains trust writing the 2015 offer will hoover up. The latest, 'Sweating our assets': productivity and efficiency across the UK economy was led by Laura Sandys, with David Ruffley, Baroness Wheatcroft, Nicola Blackwood and Steven Barclay all contributing. It has some eye-catching proposals, such as a ban on certain products such as mobile phones going to landfill. But what is more interesting about this report is the way it is trying to frame a favourite argument of the modernisers.