Uk politics

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Labour aims squarely for its base with witty class war broadcast

From our UK edition

Labourites are very pleased with their latest party election broadcast, featuring the 'un-credible shrinking man', Nick Clegg, growing smaller and smaller at the Cabinet table as the Tories around him hatch various evil plans to ruin poor people's lives through the bedroom tax, cuts to the NHS and tuition fees. If you are already inclined to think the Tories are evil and Nick Clegg a bit of a weakling, you'll enjoy this video. Which suggests that Labour is entirely playing to its base here. It's not even Ed Miliband's cost-of-living crisis pitch to hardworking families up and down the country who are a bit cheesed off that their lives don't feel any better now than they did in 2010.

Alex Massie

Rising Tory, Hidden Danger: David Cameron is Doing Too Much Too Well

From our UK edition

The British economy is growing. Not before time you might say. Be that as it may, there is a breath of summer in the air after a long winter. The quickening recovery has the Tories in jauntier spirits than for some time. The polls are closing. The Conservatives are within the margin of error and though the odds may remain it is no longer utterly fanciful to think they might remain the largest party at Westminster next year. What ho and what larks, good news is all around. Except in the north. Always the contrary north. A chill wind blows from North Britain and the message it bears should warn David Cameron he's being used by his enemies. Scottish nationalists endlessly carp that Unionists are obsessed with Alex Salmond. A vote for independence is not, per se, a vote for Mr Salmond.

Alex Massie

Tories and ethnic minorities: lessons from George W Bush

From our UK edition

Dan Hannan makes many good points in today's Telegraph as he considers the Conservatives' grim failure to attract support from black and ethnic minority voters. This isn't merely a problem for the Tories, it is a crisis. As I pointed out yesterday, the Tory share of the BME vote in 2010 was exactly the same as their share of the vote in Scotland: 16%. True, this was an improvement on 2005 when only 11% of BME voters endorsed Conservative candidates but that's a matter of only modest solace for Tory modernisers. Naturally (this being British politics) there is a thirst to look elsewhere for examples or lessons that might point towards a solution to this particular Tory problem. Like Paul Goodman, Dan Hannan looks to Canada and not without reason.

Isabel Hardman

Busy afternoon for whips as would-be rebels mull controversial stateless plan

From our UK edition

The Immigration Bill pops back up in the Commons today and MPs will have a second chance to scrutinise the government's plans to deprive foreign-born terror suspects of their citizenship. In reality, it's their first chance as these proposals were slapped into the legislation by ministers at report stage, and no-one really understood what they meant. Tory MPs were promised a briefing on it after the vote, so they trooped through the lobbies hoping for the best. Now they've had a few months to mull what the plans mean, they get a chance to vote again after the Lords amended the bill to make the stateless proposals subject to a committee. It looks as though the Liberal Democrat rebellion, which numbered seven at report stage, will be a similar size.

Isabel Hardman

With one year to go, Cameron has won over his internal swing voters – for now

From our UK edition

It's a year to go until the longest election campaign finally finishes. Ed Miliband thinks he has more intellectual self-confidence than David Cameron, which since his 2013 autumn conference speech where the Labour leader finally found the courage of his convictions. But David Cameron has more confidence about his own party sticking by him for the campaign at least. The Prime Minister has mended some relationships, and others are more cordial and banging the Tory drum simply because they want their party to win next year. But it's fair to say that for the time being the PM has got the contingent of swing voters amongst his own MPs - those who are not his loyal servants but who also don't hate his guts - working on his side.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Roger Helmer is a gift to CCHQ, so the Tories need to do really well in Newark

From our UK edition

Well, the Ukip constituency association in Newark has certainly considered Nigel Farage's musings on the success of appointing an unknown local candidate in a pivotal by-election… and completely ignored it. They've picked Roger Helmer, who, as Seb says, is not known for his mollifying centre-ground views. His selection as the party's candidate for the Newark by-election is a gift for CCHQ, which now needs a teaspoon rather than a spade to dig out awkward comments the MEP has made. Perhaps it also suggests that Ukip have decided there's not much hope of winning so why bother to field a good candidate who the party's opponents would lay into. Or perhaps that's reading too much into it: decisions that look baffling from the outside tend to be down to complex internal party politics.

Alex Massie

Why does the Tory party have a problem with ethnic minority voters? Because it deserves to.

From our UK edition

Why do the Tories have a problem with black and ethnic minority voters, daddy? It is, with all due respect to Isabel and Paul Goodman, the British political question that is easiest to answer. We all know the answer too, even those of us on the right. Race might not be the Conservative party's original sin; it's still a pretty high-ranking sin. And, look, it's not ancient history either. It's not a Different times, different attitudes but, please, can we move on now? kind of thing. Nor did it die with Enoch either. (Poor old Enoch, so brilliant but a touch troubled too, don't you think?

Sebastian Payne

Ukip selects Roger Helmer as candidate for Newark by-election

From our UK edition

As expected, Ukip has announced that Roger Helmer will be the party's candidate for the upcoming Newark by-election on 5 June. The 70-year-old MEP is a former Conservative who defected to Ukip two years ago, citing an ‘increasing disillusion with the attitudes of the Conservative Party’. Farage said of Helmer’s selection this afternoon: ‘He is a massively experienced and respected figure on the national political stage and on the local political stage as well. I know that the UKIP membership will rally to the cause of making Roger our first directly elected MP.' Helmer is a colourful character, whose past remarks will be undoubtedly dug up by his opponents in Newark.

Isabel Hardman

Conservatives and ethnic minority voters: how the Immigration Bill might not help

From our UK edition

Policy Exchange's report on the face of modern Britain this morning is fascinating reading for anyone interested in the way this country has changed and will change in years to come. But it is especially fascinating reading for those wondering how on earth the Conservative party can appeal to ethnic minority voters. This is partly because it makes quite clear that the party is currently not appealing to those voters: indeed, while politicians have a bad habit of lumping 'ethnic minority' voters together without good cause, the one thing that does lump these groups together is a reluctance to vote Conservative.

Isabel Hardman

Number 10: Government is ‘active in engagement’ over Pfizer bid

From our UK edition

What is the government's stance on Pfizer's takeover bid of AstraZeneca? Today the Prime Minister's official spokesman was asked this - and his answer didn't shed a great deal of light on the situation. He said the position was 'active in engagement, with both companies in terms of the importance to the UK of R&D and the science base, with regard to the decision as to whether or not going ahead is the right thing to do for either company and their shareholders, is entirely a matter for the companies, their boards and their shareholders'. But what if the takeover does turn out to damage jobs and the science base in this country?

Alex Massie

Modern England: a triumph of immigration and integration.

From our UK edition

In a better, more sensible, world David Cameron would make a virtue of the opportunity UKIP has given him. He would appreciate that defending his party's record is actually an opportunity for a counter-attack. UKIP complain - loudly - that 4,000 people arrive in the United Kingdom from the EU each and every week. This, they suggest, is awful and Something Must Be Done to limit the number of people coming to the United Kingdom. The Conservative party appears, in its dark heart, to share this concern. It suspects the Kippers might have at least half a point. There's something nauseous about all this immigration, isn't there? No wonder the party is hemmed-in, unable to find a response to UKIP that is both sensible and persuasive. Better, then, to attack.

Isabel Hardman

Labour market flexibility and dignity

From our UK edition

Two front pages today report what they see as bad news, and both stories are certainly ones politicians need to worry about. The Guardian reveals a leaked letter showing jobseekers will face sanctions if they do not apply for or accept 'certain zero hours jobs under the new universal credit system', while the Indy splashes on research by the Resolution Foundation which found that self-employed workers are earning 40 per cent less than a typical employee. The paper says these workers are the 'hidden victims of the recession struggling by on low pay'. Saying that either of these stories represent 'good news' sounds far too flippant - but they do reflect the flexibility of Britain's labour market which has enabled many people to remain in employment and off the dole during the downturn.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Why policy wonks love Milton Keynes

From our UK edition

How can political parties solve the housing crisis? The vogue a few years ago was to talk about garden cities, although once it became clear that the National Planning Policy Framework had upset a lot of Conservative voters, politicians started to prevaricate over plans for more garden cities, and then eventually published a 'prospectus' asking for locally-led ideas. I spent this morning exploring Milton Keynes, which was a New Town, rather than one of the original garden cities, but which planning policy wonks, including Number 10's Alex Morton, hold up as an example of a new development built from scratch which has become hugely successful, with high rates of private sector job creation.

Tom Mludzinski

Ukip faces its toughest test yet over the next 12 months

From our UK edition

The European election creeps closer and the smart money has switched from Labour to Ukip topping the poll. A Labour win would be spectacular in its own right as it would probably require a doubling of their 2009 vote share. I confess there was an intake of breath in the ComRes office when our ITV News poll results were in showing an 11-point Ukip lead over Labour. But the naysayers were confounded by a second poll released on the same day showing a nine-point Ukip lead. The ramifications of a party with no Westminster MPs topping a popular ballot within a year of a General Election puts us into new territory.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Ukip aren’t just David Cameron and the Tories’ problem anymore

From our UK edition

How the Tory party will react if, as excepted, Ukip pushes the party into third place in the European elections is one of the most discussed topics in UK politics. But overlooked in all this is how Labour will react if Farage’s party beats them on May 22nd. If Ukip come top in the European Elections, as the polls indicate they have a very good chance of doing, Labour will be thrown into a panic. No opposition has ever triumphed at a general election having not won the previous European Elections. A failure in the European Elections would be a big blow to the idea that Ed Miliband is going to be the next Prime Minister. Already, influential members of the shadow Cabinet are grumbling about how the leadership hasn’t taken these elections seriously enough.

Hamish Macdonell

The Sunday Herald says ‘yes’ to Scottish independence. Which newspaper will be next?

From our UK edition

If you are going to declare a clear political affiliation, you might as well do it big. In cricketing terms, if you are going to slash at the ball, slash hard — and that is exactly what the Sunday Herald has done this morning. 'Sunday Herald says Yes,' is the front page headline above an illustration by artist and Nationalist Alasdair Gray. Page one is the declaration and page three is the explanation. The whole of page three is devoted to an editorial setting out the reasons for the Sunday Herald’s decision to come out for the Nats. It is a pretty good and well-argued exposition of the Yes case, acknowledging the potential problems of independence but concluding that the referendum is 'the chance to remake our society in a more equal, inclusive, open and just way'.

Fraser Nelson

Health diktats, rail renationalisation – Labour’s leftwards lurch continues

From our UK edition

The evolution of Ed Miliband's Labour Party continues today with a letter in the Observer from candidates demanding that the party renationalizes the railways to lower the fares. It would be popular in commuter towns, they say – no wonder, as this would pass the costs from commuters to the general taxpayer. When challenged about it on this morning's Andrew Marr show, Miliband didn't rule it out. 'We're looking at all the options,' he said. His only concession was that he is 'not going back to old-style British Rail,' - he plans a new form of state intervention.

Saturday

Sebastian Payne

Revealed: Nigel Farage’s path to Parliament

From our UK edition

Now that Newark is a no-go, Nigel Farage will be turning his thoughts to where he will stand as an MP. He said this week that returning its first MP will be a huge breakthrough for Ukip, so choosing a seat that he can win is vital. After declining to stand in the 15 by-elections that Ukip have contested since 2010, it looks as if Farage will wait until 2015 to run for Parliament. Coffee House understands that, ideally, Farage would like the seat to fit three criteria. Firstly, it needs to be a marginal seat. Secondly, he wants to have some local connection — he feels his lack of any roots in Buckingham caused him problems when he stood there in 2010. And thirdly, there would be no incumbent MP, lessening the challenge among the local community.

Friday

Martin Vander Weyer

Pfizer will be hard to stop

From our UK edition

The pattern of the global pharmaceutical industry has long been towards cross-border mergers that combine research strength, market access and the capital needed to sustain new drugs through multinational approval processes.The UK has done well in this game, with excellent laboratory work and two giants still headquartered here, GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca. The latter is part-Swedish but has 6,700 British staff and a heritage that descends from the pharmaceuticals business of ICI, greatest of 20th-century British industrial names.

Isabel Hardman

The Coalition letter war steps up a notch

From our UK edition

Coalition relations are growing more fractious and sour. Even departments where the rapport between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems had been respectful, such as Justice, are starting to bicker publicly. Today the Mail splashes on a row between the two parties over knife crime, in the week of the stabbing of teacher Ann Maguire. Nick Clegg has refused to support mandatory minimum sentences for repeat knife offences, and the normally secret letters discussing the measures have made their way into the pages of a newspaper.