Uk politics

What do Foreign Office ministers think about the possibility that Andrew Lansley could be the next European Commissioner? David Lidington was clearly intrigued by Isabel's column in the Telegraph this morning which says that Tory backbenchers are not fans at all. The Europe Minister, who would have to work closely with Lansley, retweeted the article with the headline 'the mysterious Mr Lansley will hardly set Brussels alight'. He then realised that this might not look very good, and tweeted: 'Apologies. Was trying to read last article not retweet it. Retweet def not my view.' Presumably he doesn't mean that he does think Lansley will set Brussels on fire?

Sir John Major isn't a fan of Ukip and thinks it will fade away from its current position on the political scene. He's not the only one who thinks that: one of the problems that all three main parties have face is that they have continually assumed that Ukip is about to lose its head of steam, and have therefore made precious few preparations for the party getting bigger and stealing more of their voters. But there was one very interesting remark that Major made in his interview on the Today programme. He said: 'The circumstances between the 1990s and now are very different in many ways, and in a very curious way the recent European elections have emphasised that very clear. I think the results of these elections right across Europe have made a renegotiation much easier.

Nick Clegg said this morning that 'appropriate steps' will be taken to deal with Lord Oakeshott after the peer was outed as the 'Lib Dem supporter' who had commissioned uncomfortable polling about the Lib Dems' chances in 2015. As with other difficult situations with Lib Dem peers, though, Clegg doesn't have that much power to remove the whip from Oakeshott, even if he'd like to.

Yippee! The number-crunching boffins are at war again. The UK and Scottish governments have today released rival forecasts for life in an independent Scotland. It will not surprise you that the UK government's projections run towards the pessimistic side of the ledger while their opponents in Edinburgh take a sunnier view of Scotland's future economic circumstances and performance. Fancy that! The Scottish government suggests there might be £5bn windfall from independence; the UK government reckons each Scot receives a 'Union dividend' worth something like £1,400 a year.  They can't both be right. In fact the probability is they are both wrong. That is, Scotland's fiscal and economic position would be neither as bleak as London suggests nor as rosy as Edinburgh claims.

Ukip types, already with a spring in their step this week, are further buoyed by the fact that they will be going into the Newark by-election with data up their sleeves. The Tory machine is in full swing on the ground, but the playing field has been levelled. Whereas in previous by-elections Farage turned up to the pub or hung about meeting people in the market square, Newark will be different. Thanks to the proximity of the crunch Nottinghamshire ballot to the European and local elections, the self-styled ‘people’s army’ will be on an equal footing with the embedded local Tories, as they will be able to see exactly who voted last week.