Uk politics

Meltdown! Shock poll puts Scottish Labour on 4 MPs and the SNP on 54

From our UK edition

Just to make Scottish Labour's misery complete - and underline the case for a bold leader who likes winning things - STV have published a poll by Ipsos Mori putting Ed Miliband's party on just 23 per cent, which would see them losing all but four of their Scottish MPs, against 52 per cent support for the SNP, which would get 54 Westminster seats. The question was how would those surveyed vote if there were a general election tomorrow. The Scottish Conservatives would lose their one seat, with 10 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems would retain one with 6 per cent, while the Greens polled 6 per cent, Ukip 2 per cent and others 1 per cent.

Jim Murphy to stand for Scottish Labour leader

From our UK edition

As expected, Jim Murphy has announced he's standing for Scottish Labour Leader. He's given an interview to the Daily Record in which he says he wants to stop 'the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm': 'I think it is time for a fresh start for the Scottish Labour party,” he said. “I am proud of Labour Party and I am proud of Scotland - but I am not satisfied. 'I want to strike a tone that stops the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm. I want to unite the Labour Party but more importantly I want to bring the country back together after the referendum. 'I am not going to shout at or about the SNP, I am going to talk to and listen to Scotland and I am very clear that the job I am applying for is to be the First Minister of Scotland.

Did she say that out loud? Gay marriage muddle from Nicky Morgan

From our UK edition

Mixed messaging from education secretary Nicky Morgan, who also moonlights as the equalities minister: Despite saying previously that 'marriage to me is between a man and a woman', and voting against gay marriage legislation, today Morgan said she probably would vote for gay marriage, telling the BBC's Today programme that you 'learn' on the job. She went on to claim that she voted no on gay marriage before because of her constiuents were against it. Does their view go out the window at the sniff of high office? And it was clearly not what she was saying at the time...

How to defuse Britain’s £1.45 trillion public-debt time-bomb

From our UK edition

Last week’s public-finance statistics were truly dreadful. They showed that despite a year of fairly robust economic growth, UK government borrowing since the start of the financial year 2014 to 2015 was actually 10 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013 to 2014. Once again, it seems, our public finances will be in deficit by more than £100 billion this year. Running sustained deficits of this kind adds to the overall debt burden. According to the new ONS figures, public-sector net debt is currently £1.45 trillion (79.9 per cent of GDP) – meaning we are paying just over £50 billion per year in debt-interest payments.

How Maggie’s ‘swamped’ comment crushed the National Front

From our UK edition

The brilliant Matthew Parris writes in his Times column today about Margaret Thatcher using the word 'swamped' in relation to immigration in 1978. We had been averaging 500-700 letters a week when, discussing immigration in a TV interview, Mrs Thatcher used the word “swamped”. In the following week she received about 5,000 letters, almost all in support, almost all reacting to that interview. I had to read them. We were swamped indeed: swamped by racist bilge. It’s the things people confide in you when they think you’re one of them that can be so revealing. But there is another part of this story that Matthew leaves out. On election night in 1979 various experts were lined up to discuss what was expected to be a National Front breakthrough.

What would a Ukip win in the South Yorkshire PCC by-election tell us?

From our UK edition

Before the by-election battle with Ukip in Rochester that Westminster is rather obsessed with, there's another chance for Nigel Farage's party to cause a political earthquake. Tomorrow, voters in South Yorkshire will go to the polls to elect a new police and crime commissioner to replace Shaun Wright, who eventually resigned after the Rotherham child abuse scandal. Ukip is fighting a vigorous campaign in this PCC election, launching posters at the weekend that read 'there are 1,400 reasons why you should not trust Labour again', with a picture of a teenage girl on them. The party's candidate Jack Clarkson does have a good chance of winning the seat from Labour, which will cause serious jitters.

Liam Fox launches One Minute Fox campaign

From our UK edition

Liam Fox has launched a series of 'One Minute Fox' videos in which he sets out his position on various hot issues from the threat of fundamentalism to welfare reform. He unveiled the series - which he says will become more controversial as the election approaches - to a group of Conservative MPs this evening. Intriguingly, none of the videos mentions Conservatism or have any party branding, but they are branded in his own name, which may of course come in handy in the future. Cynics might say that the videos are about a future leadership campaign, but the explicit aim is to communicate Conservative ideas to undecided voters without putting them off right away- and to do so in a simple and quick format that they'll actually watch.

Who’s playing dirty politics on Lord Freud and welfare? Everyone

From our UK edition

The main business of the day in the House of Commons is Labour's debate on Lord Freud, a row that blew up nearly a fortnight ago. The party's motion, entitled 'Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Welfare Reform and disabled people', finishes with '. . . this House has no confidence in the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Welfare Reform; and calls on the Prime Minister to dismiss him.' It's not a wise move to put any money on David Cameron meeting this demand, given that Freud apologised on the same day his comments about disabled people and the minimum wage were raised at Prime Minister's Questions. Unless you've got a lot of time on your hands, it might not be wise to sit through the entire debate, both sides of which can be summarised in these three points: 1.

Can George Osborne quibble away shock EU bill?

From our UK edition

What's next for David Cameron's tussle with Brussels? The Prime Minister made clear yesterday that 'we are not paying a sum anything like' the £1.7 billion demanded by the European Commission last week, and now the focus is on how much he can get the bill reduced by. He will have to pay a bill, but to maintain credibility, the Prime Minister must end up paying something much smaller than the original demand. Next week George Osborne and other European finance ministers will hold emergency talks on the bill, and today Number 10 set out what the Chancellor plans to say at those talks.

Tribal loyalty stops bad news becoming worse for party leaders

From our UK edition

Today's Independent explains why the Tory party is starting to get rather jitter again. Sure, Labour has fallen five points to level-peg with the party in a ComRes poll for the paper, with both on 30 per cent, but as Mike Smithson points out, the party could still be losing seats to the Opposition even if it secures a 6 per cent lead. But the poll also has Ukip on 19 per cent after the shock bill from Brussels. As I reported yesterday, MPs were already picking up on voter concern about this on the doorstep - and a poll for the Times found most voters through he would pay up in the end anyway. Labour won't be particularly buoyed by the poll either, though Douglas Alexander has warned his party that it will see these sorts of figures in an era of four-party politics.

David Cameron and Michael Gove to abstain on key Recall Bill vote – to keep Lib Dems happy

From our UK edition

MPs have a free vote tonight on Zac Goldsmith's amendment to the Recall Bill. But I have learned that instead of voting with their Tory colleague, the Prime Minister and chief whip are to abstain in the vote. Michael Gove and David Cameron have agreed to do so, not because they oppose Goldsmith's proposals, which will, he claims, ensure a powerful form of recall rather than that endorsed by Nick Clegg. Instead, they will not walk through the lobbies because the Lib Dems have asked them not to. Clegg and co were apparently wary of an ambush by the Tories whereby the party would officially hold a free vote, but backbenchers would in practice follow their party leader and whip through the lobbies. And so to avoid this, they asked for the abstention.

Jim Murphy is Scottish Labour’s only hope

From our UK edition

At the risk of intruding into someone else's calamity, if you can't enjoy this what can you enjoy? By this I mean, of course, Scottish Labour's meltdown. (Suggestions the party is not actually an iced lollipop should not be taken too seriously.) The thing to remember about Labour in Scotland is they've never been as popular as they like to think. They've only ever been the largest minority. A large and zombified minority, to be sure, but a minority nonetheless. They never - ever - spoke for a majority of Scots. They only claimed to. They still do. That's the astonishing thing. They are the people's army, the political will of the Scottish people made flesh. And how dare anyone else suggest otherwise. Inconveniently, a fair few folk have dared make just that suggestion. The bastards.

Never mind the Baghdad politics, Iraqi Kurds need help to fight Islamic State

From our UK edition

The threat from Daish, the Arabic acronym for the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, has gone from a side issue to a central imperative, judging by discussions with Kurdish leaders on my four fact-finding trips to the Kurdistan region in the last year. Last November, I was told how Daish operatives were assiduously measuring building sites in Mosul in an extortion racket. In February, I learned of their external funding and their continuing growth. In June, they captured Mosul with a small force that immediately acquired thousands of adherents, and established a 650-mile border with the Iraqi Kurds. The major shock, though, was how quickly the Iraqi Army had 'disappeared in a puff', as the governor of Kirkuk put it to me in his office in the city.

Tricky Commons session looms for Cameron on EU bill

From our UK edition

It's been a while since David Cameron had to give such a difficult feedback statement to the House of Commons after a European summit. Even his last tricky address, on his failure to block Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission, could at least be spun as the Prime Minister valiantly standing up for the right principle. But at this afternoon's session in the Commons, the Prime Minister will face complaints from MPs not just about how impossible Europe is but about how some parts of the Westminster machine knew about the so-called unexpected bill but others did not. So the questions Cameron will face will be: can you avoid paying this bill? Who can we blame, not just for the original situation, but the fact that officials apparently failed to pass the information on?

David Cameron has no choice but to defy Brussels

From our UK edition

If the European Commission had come to Britain demanding another £90 million because this country’s economy had performed better than expected, it would have been a political headache for David Cameron. The money would have been handed over and Ukip would have slapped it on to its election leaflets. But the Commission’s demand for £1.7 billion extra from Britain is so outrageous that it provides Cameron with a political opportunity. He can refuse to pay and hold up all other European business until the demand is dropped, rallying the country to his side as Margaret Thatcher did over the British rebate. One Cabinet Minister says excitedly of the row with the Commission, ‘This provides us with an opportunity to tell them where to get off’.

Alas, poor Johann Lamont: a symptom, not the cause, of Labour’s decline in Scotland

From our UK edition

It was the wee things that did it. Things like vision, inspiration, confidence and all the other details that coalesce into that strange something called leadership. There are many types of leader and leadership is another of those things easier to see than define but all successful leaders share one essential quality: they can choose a hill and persuade their followers that's the place they must die. Johann Lamont never had a hill. By the end she didn't have much of an army either. Scottish Labour is a party suffering from some kind of political dementia right now. It kind of remembers being a contender and it still stands before a mirror shadowboxing but the moves are slower now and less convincing all the time.

Anglicanism keeps muddling on — thank God

From our UK edition

A new survey of Anglican clergy has been published. Its findings are reassuringly unsurprising. For example, almost one-third of the clergy identify as evangelical; exactly one-third as Catholic; and just over one-third as something in the middle. In a different question, a quarter identify as conservative. Just over half want to keep the established Church in its current form; the rest want some sort of reform. Most call for the Anglican Communion to be more accepting of diversity, rather than seek stricter uniformity. Same in relation to the national Church. Sensible middle-way muddling-through remains the dominant approach: half the clergy think that Christians are discriminated against in some way by our secular society; half oppose same-sex marriage.