Uk politics

Does anyone actually want to win the next election?

From our UK edition

A battle lost is worse than a battle won and there are fewer Pyrrhic victories in politics than you think. One of the staples of pre-election punditry, however, is that someone will always pipe up with the suggestion This is a Good Election to Lose. It is almost always bunk. Not least because, with the notable exception of the Liberal Democrats, major political parties are in the business of acquiring, then exercising, power. Shorn of that they lose their point. So there's that. Nevertheless if you suspect there might be a but lurking a couple of lines in the future your premonition would, in this instance, be correct. But this might actually be a rare exception to the general rule. This could be an election it really is better to lose than to win.

It’s time for Boris to abandon his island and back Gatwick expansion

From our UK edition

Surprise surprise, airport expansion is going to cost more than anyone expected. Howard Davies, of the Airport Commission fame, took to the Today programme this morning to kick off the public consultation while informing delighted flyers (who will likely end up footing part of the bill) that a second runway at Gatwick will cost £2 billion more than previously suggested. A third runway or runway extension at Heathrow will be in the region of an additional £3-4 billion.

Government wins European Arrest Warrant ‘vote’

From our UK edition

So Labour lost its vote delaying the vote on the European Arrest Warrant that wasn't technically a vote on that measure anyway. The first vote, that the question not be put today so that Parliament could have a full debate and vote another day, was lost, with 272 MPs voting 'no' with the government and 229 voting with Labour. There had been a big debate on the Tory backbenches about the best tactic, with MPs angry about the government's behaviour split over whether to vote with Labour or abstain. This meant that Labour lost the vote.

Government wins crunch vote on European Arrest Warrant by NINE VOTES

From our UK edition

The government has just won the vote extending the debate on the justice and home affairs opt-outs by just nine votes - 251 ayes to 242 noes. This means that MPs have approved the motion for the debate to continue to 10pm, which rebels and Labour had turned against because the Speaker had said that this was not a vote on the European Arrest Warrant. Theresa May is insistent, though, that this is a vote on the matter. Such a narrow win is clearly a relief for ministers  - and many of them had been hauled into the Commons early by panicked whips who suddenly realised they were facing a defeat. If just a few more had been delayed, the rebels could have won. It is still a serious blow for the Home Secretary.

Net migration target becomes an ‘aim’ or ‘objective’

From our UK edition

When is a target not a target? Theresa May seems quite keen for us to think that Tory pledge to bring migration down to the tens of thousands was a 'comment' or an 'aim', now that it doesn't look as though that's going to be possible in time for the election. Today Number 10 did insist that there had been no change in the target, but also refused to call it a 'promise'. The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: 'There's no change. That remains the objective towards which the Prime Minister and others are working… It has always been the objective. There's been no change, the tens of thousands by the end of this Parliament.

European Arrest Warrant vote mired in confusion

From our UK edition

The government's vote on the European Arrest Warrant this evening is becoming rather confused. The motion does not include a mention of the warrant itself, which ministers had hoped would have a psychological effect on MPs considering how to vote, as the division would not be solely about the most contentious measure. The motion is as follows: 'That the draft Criminal Justice and Data Protection (Protocol No. 36) Regulations 2014, which were laid before this House on 3 November, be approved.' The chairmen of three select committees last week described the voting arrangements for this evening.

Reckless criticised by Medway NHS for Ukip election leaflet

From our UK edition

Mark Reckless is in trouble for reckless campaigning. One of his promotional leaflets (pdf), noting his plans for the NHS in Rochester and Strood, features a photo of Reckless alongside the Medway NHS Trust chief executive Phillip Barnes. Unsurprisingly, the local NHS chiefs aren't happy about this. By using a photo of Barnes and Reckless, taken when he was the Conservative MP for Rochester, on a campaign leaflet the Medway NHS trust believes it may be taken as 'inferring that both Dr Barnes and the hospital were supporting Mr Reckless' campaign.

May cautious on net migration target

From our UK edition

Judging by how happy she is to talk about the case for remaining within it, Theresa isn't expecting a big rebellion on the European Arrest Warrant later today. She may have driven down some of the numbers by not talking about the measure in the motion that's before the Commons, but really it's a combination of her behind the scenes talks with MPs to persuade them she has secured reform and a desire on the part of backbenchers not to make the story about Tory revolts when things are going so badly for Labour that's swung it. There is, as ever, internal Conservative grumbling that the rebel whips haven't been sufficiently well- organised.

Labour unrest: What Ed Miliband can learn from David Cameron’s struggles with the Tories

From our UK edition

Well, the Labour party certainly knows how to give the appearance of a fight when its back is against the wall. Many MPs and supporters have spent quite a lot of this fine autumn day tweeting frantically that this morning's unpleasant headlines (summarised in their full gory glory by James here) are a plot by the media to stop their thoroughly decent leader making it to Downing Street and why aren't we all writing about the problems that David Cameron has with the Conservative party instead? They protest too much: if lobby journalists were organised enough to compile time sheets, most of us would quite clearly have spent the bulk of our time since the 2010 election writing about Tory misery, not Labour.

The Labour leadership crisis that David Cameron would have scripted

From our UK edition

So far, this is the Labour leadership crisis that David Cameron would have scripted. The papers this morning are full of awful poll findings for Ed Miliband, negative briefings and on the record criticism from his own side. But, there is no sign of a challenger yet nor has a frontbencher resigned. So, all this strife is doing is further turning public opinion against Miliband and turning the focus to where the Tories want it to be, is Miliband Prime Ministerial material? Where does all this go from here? Well, if Alan Johnson was at all interested things would get very interesting very quickly. But his denials seem entirely genuine.

Miliband triggers an outbreak of political unity – though not the sort Labour wants

From our UK edition

Is the latest Labour leadership crisis actually triggering new wave of party unity? Lord Prescott, who has slammed Miliband as ‘timid’ for his ‘complacent’ leadership style, spotted John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former political secretary turned columnist, in the reception of the BBC after they had both been on the airwaves to discuss the party’s dire straits. 'I remember when we used to disagree about things' called out Prezza. And it’s not just sparring partners in his own party who Ed is bringing together. At last some common ground has been found between Ukip and the Tories. 'He's the best thing going for absolutely everyone right now,' one Ukip spin doctor said of Ed Miliband.

Tory eurosceptics plot to use loss in Rochester to pressure Cameron

From our UK edition

Labour might be mired in misery this week, but at least it can take comfort that around the corner is the Rochester by-election, which the Conservatives look set to lose. Not one MP returning from campaigning against their former colleague Mark Reckless honestly thinks they'll win, even if they tweet nice things and post aggressive videos. Let's just remind ourselves of why losing this constituency is particularly painful for the Conservatives. They spent their conference calling Reckless a 'dickhead' and saying they thought they could win the by-election because he was a liar, and he didn't have the same personal appeal as Douglas Carswell in a constituency considered far less Ukip-friendly.

Tory MPs react to Osborne’s ‘EU bill deal’

From our UK edition

So are Tory backbenchers happy with what George Osborne claims to have brought back from Europe after his talks on that £1.7 billion bill? While the government argues with the European Commission about what it has and hasn't secured this afternoon, the Right of the Tory party have already been working out what they think. Some had set a very low limbo bar of £400 million, and Britain certainly will end up paying more than that. The first thing is that they're naturally not happy with the idea that Britain is paying anything. The basic view of those in the No Turning Back and Cornerstone groups is that Osborne should have turned around to the Commission and say 'sorry chaps, we'll see you in court about this', given the court action would take place after the election.

Smoke, mirrors, magic: how George Osborne “halved” the £1.7bn EU bill

From our UK edition

George Osborne took a victory lap on Friday to declare that 'instead of footing the bill, we have halved the bill.' This would be the £1.7 billion EU budget invoice the European Commission handed to the UK government in October, with a pay-by date of 1 December. After meeting with his EU counterparts today, the UK finance minister announced a deal in which 'the bill instead of being £1.7 billion will be around £850 million'. Er...not quite, as it turns out. Here's what Osborne left out: the UK will still owe the full £1.7 billion, only not all in December, and would be able to quickly offset part of the cost with its usual rebate on EU contributions.

Alex Salmond’s School of Denial

From our UK edition

Alex Salmond is on his way out. The First Minister gives every impression of enjoying - or at least making the most of - his farewell tour. And why not? Far from weakening the SNP, defeat in September's referendum has - at least for now - strengthened the party. Its supremacy is unchallenged and while recent polls putting the Nationalists on 50 percent of the vote are unlikely - surely! - to last forever this is the kind of problem worth having. Nevertheless, the First Minister's final days in office have also reminded us that policy and, indeed, philosophy are not necessarily Salmond's strengths. Unusually, First Minister's Questions proved a useful exercise this week. Both Jackie Baillie, Labour's temporary head at Holyrood, and Ruth Davidson pressed Salmond on education.

Why Labour unrest is getting so much attention

From our UK edition

Labour types are in an aggressive mood this morning. Why are the newspapers and the BBC setting such store by just two MPs who apparently want their leader gone when the Tory party has around ten times that number of committed malcontents, they grumble? Peter Hain was particularly defensive this morning, suggesting that all Ed Miliband's supposed woes are actually part of a plot by the Daily Mail. First, here's an attempt to explain the media excitement about the threat to Miliband.

Are Zoe Williams and the fatuous Left mad or disingenuous?

From our UK edition

Today I went on the Daily Politics, presented by Andrew Neil. Talked about a bunch of stuff and then debated the issue of political correctness with Zoe Williams, from The Guardian. Look, I like Zoe. She’s ok. But she tried to argue that all the recent revelations about the sexual abuse of young white girls by Muslim men in places such as Rotherham (and about sixty other towns) went undiscovered for reasons which had nothing to do with political correctness. This is either mad, or disingenuous. Even the local Labour MPs who at the very least turned a blind eye to what was going on have admitted that a reluctance to stir up trouble with the local Pakistani or Bangladeshi community lay behind their lack of interest in the stories of sexual abuse.